CRIQUI Patrick

While the administrative court of Paris has just recognized in the framework of the "Affair of the Century" a "faulty failure" of the State in the face of climate change, the energy transition is now presented as "broken down". In any case, it is insufficient in relation to the commitments made, particularly with the Paris Agreement. And yet France has worked hard for the conclusion of this agreement. And it has a detailed roadmap for decarbonizing its economy: the national low-carbon strategy. Following the publication in 2018 of the IPCC's 1.5°C report, this strategy has been revised to mark the adoption of the more ambitious goal of "carbon neutrality" in 2050. To achieve this neutrality, France will have to divide its greenhouse gas emissions by 6 (compared to 1990).

While more and more countries are announcing their carbon neutrality objectives, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has just unveiled the trajectories that would make it possible to reach, or not, this objective at the global level, by 2050. What are the main findings of these new forecasts, made at the request of the Presidency of the COP26, which will be held in November 2021 in Glasgow? Carbon neutrality" to reduce and absorb GHG emissions The fight against global warming is based on reducing GHG emissions (primarily CO2) through a massive reduction in the consumption of carbon-based energy (coal, oil and gas). It is also based on the development of carbon sinks, with an increase in the storage capacity of forests and soils, as well as on the deployment of CO2 capture and storage technologies. The combination of these two actions should make it possible to achieve "zero net emissions" (carbon neutrality), by reducing GHG emissions generated by human activity to the level at which they are "removed" from the atmosphere and absorbed by sinks.

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the magnitude of the climate challenge we face globally and the role that the four largest greenhouse gas emitters – China, the U.S.A., the European Union and India – could potentially play, if they decided on a “deep collaboration”. As stated in IPCC’s 1.5°C report, the challenge is indeed to bring global emissions down to a level where they could be compensated for by anthropogenic carbon capture from the atmosphere. In this paper, we focus on the abatement of CO2 emissions as they represent two thirds of total GHG emissions3. By doing so, we recognise that confining our data to CO2 ignores other important gases (methane, nitrous oxides, fluorinated gases) and their emission dynamics. The paper proceeds along three stages. In section 2. “Where we stand, a global view”, we recall the dynamics of atmospheric concentrations for two major GHGs, CO2 and methane. In section 3. “Looking back”, we analyse in more detail the trends and bifurcations in the emissions for each of the four constituencies we are considering. Finally, in section 4. “Where we need to go”, we analyse for the same constituencies representative scenarios that will allow us to contrast current developments with more constrained trajectories meeting the Paris commitments and, further on, net zero ambitions.

States are now at the forefront of those accused in the relative failure of policies implemented to meet international commitments, particularly those of the Paris Agreement. Two years after the "Affair of the Century" collected more than 2 million signatures, the courts ruled in February 2021 that the French state had committed a "fault" by failing to meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments for the period 2015-2018. Today, NGOs and experts are denouncing the Energy Charter Treaty, signed in 1994 and little known to the general public, which protects foreign investment in the production, exploration and distribution of all energies within the European Union. This protection allows investors to take their case to a private arbitration court to request compensation (in the order of a billion euros) each time a government modifies the profitability of an investment through its energy and climate policies. The petition that calls on Europe to get out of this treaty has almost a million signatures. Among the youngest, the Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg has initiated strikes of thousands of students, urging governments to tighten policies against global warming. Other whistleblowers denounce, in addition to the States, the economic and financial sectors as being primarily responsible. All these actions testify to the awareness, within society, of the importance of the climate, and the wish that institutional and economic actors move "from words to deeds". But isn't the desired success in the fight against climate change "everyone's business"? Let's look again at the room for maneuver and the difficulties to be overcome by each type of actor in order to meet the objectives of the energy-climate transition.

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This paper presents a new power sector module, called EUTGRID, which is coupled with the long-term energy model POLES to deliver a suitable framework for considering grid aspects in energy modelling allowing for more distinct analysis of energy technology development and energy policy. It includes a mechanism of investment in transmission grids based on nodal prices together with a DC-load flow and a more detailed description of the European transmission grid. The methodology goes beyond “conventional” energy systems modelling, where the electricity grid is usually represented as a copper plate. The results show that within a climate policy scenario, the grid investment needs reach 454b$ for 2010–2080 as regions with high share of VREs require new interconnections. The role of the transmission grid in reducing variable system costs and VREs curtailment is also assessed. Delaying the investments may result in non-distributed energy and the need of more back-up carbon technologies.

Jointly achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 of access to clean and reliable energy for all by 2030 and the climate goals of the Paris Agreement requires the development of microgrids (MGs), powered by local renewable energy resources, for remote areas that cannot be connected to the grid. This is particularly the case in sub-Saharan Africa where 600 million people, mainly in remote rural areas, do not have access to electricity. This thesis focuses on the analysis of off-grid solar MGs (MGSIs) to address the challenges of power generation in remote areas of the African continent. We first explore the multi-scale temporal variability of the solar resource in Africa and its implication on the sizing of MGSIs, using high-resolution satellite data of global horizontal irradiance for a period of 21 years (1995-2015). Taking into account periods of low resources leads to oversizing the photovoltaic (PV) area by a factor of 1.3 to 4. With such an oversizing, it is possible to ensure a good quality of service without depending on a large storage volume. For some areas, demand flexibility during low resource periods would significantly reduce the sizing.We then analyze how the potential seasonality of the electric demand affects the MGSI sizing, through the analysis of the co-variability structure between the solar resource and the demand. We consider that the MG must meet a total daily demand of at least 95% of the days and a seasonal variation in demand of up to 30%. While in some parts of Africa, the size required to meet seasonal demand is 20% smaller than what is needed to meet non-seasonal demand, it can also be 20% larger. We also explore the extent to which the effect of PV panel tilt angle could reduce the supply-demand mismatch and sizing. Generally, the tilt angle is equal to the latitude. For constant daily demand, the size gain obtained by optimizing the tilt angle is less than 4%, but for specific seasonal demand patterns, it can reach 9%.Finally, the cost of electricity required to provide good quality of service is a key determinant of potential MGSI deployment. We evaluate the sensitivity of the discounted cost of electricity (LCOE) and the optimal MG configuration (i.e., with the lowest LCOE) to the costs of PV panels, batteries and other economic parameters. While the sensitivity of LCOE to discounted costs is obviously important, the optimal configuration (PV panel area and storage capacity) is very robust. The optimal configuration is almost solely determined by the time co-variability structure between the resource and the demand. It is therefore dependent on the one hand on the regional climate, and on the other hand on the temporal structure of the demand. The adjustment variable is essentially the oversizing of the PV panels, which is based on the low days of solar resource, while the storage has the main function of managing the mismatch between demand and resource at the intraday level. An interesting result is that the LCOE is lower for productive uses of electricity compared to domestic uses only because of the lower storage capacity required for productive uses.

At a time when many countries are considering the responses to the economic crisis resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic and the question of how to link them with strategies to combat climate change, what contribution can foresight make to energy transitions? Continuing the "Energy-Climate" series that began in our columns last March, Patrick Criqui and Henri Waisman offer an analysis of the various foresight tools that have been developed over the past fifty years to inform decisions on energy transition. After a historical review of the evolution of integrated energy-economy-environment modeling, whose golden age is the period 1992-2014, they highlight the limits encountered by this type of foresight, at the international level, starting with the Paris agreements, which encourage the reintroduction of the "political economy" dimension in the transition scenarios.

Previous works proposed a tool coupling models of a prospective outlook on long-term energy systems and a transmission grid investment and dispatch, focusing on the representation of the European transmission grid and its development on the horizon 2050–2100. In this paper, this prospective tool is further improved with the capacity to compute voltage as well as active and reactive power flows at the level of the distribution grid. This added capacity allows analyzing various issues related to the integration of variable energy resources in three representative real medium voltage distribution grids (urban, rural and semi-urban). Technical flexibility solutions such as on-load tap changers, variable energy resources curtailment and storage technologies are modeled and compared to reinforcement. A cost comparison between these flexibility solutions is also carried out. Finally, the new version of the tool is used to evaluate the CO2−eq emissions linked to the development of the European power system infrastructure, with flexibility solutions, up to the year 2050 (both high voltage alternative and direct current lines reinforcement being considered) under a 2 °C climate energy policy scenario. Results show that it exists various options for the development of the European grid infrastructure, which are clearly sensitive to the level of accuracy in the representation of the physical infrastructures and their technical limitations. Being able to represent the distribution grid, in addition to the transmission one, has a noticeable impact on the prospective outlook of the European power systems both in terms of infrastructure reinforcement and estimation of the needs of flexibility solutions.

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More than forty years ago, in its report to the Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth, MIT first raised the question of global limits to economic growth. This was followed by oil shocks and counter-shocks, awareness of climate change, and a new surge in oil and commodity prices before the 2008 financial crisis. Since 2014, the price front has returned to normal, and market observers are even predicting a sustainable end to the commodity super-cycle (Mc Kinsey Global Institute, 2017). Despite this, the climate peril calls for a major techno-logical transition. It must lead, by 2050, to a massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, in particular by reducing the consumption of fossil fuels: coal, oil and natural gas. This requires the fastest possible deployment of energy efficiency, renewable energies and, in countries where it is possible, nuclear energy. The fossil fuel energy system, which has been developed over two centuries of industrial revolution, must be deconstructed and decarbonized in 35 years. The transition from fossil fuels to decarbonized energies, if it takes place as necessary before the middle of the century, will be an unprecedented historical event. The magnitude of the challenge leads some to doubt that the future of the planet's climate is at stake. If we place ourselves in this perspective of accelerated transition, the question arises as to how it could be facilitated by rapid progress in low carbon technologies. The energy transition could, on the contrary, be slowed down by the availability of resources needed to fully renew the energy capital stock.

The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in context of national circumstances. In the lead up to COP21, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this perspective we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed and policy-relevant country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in.

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In an article published in the French newspaper "Le Monde", a group of personalities believes that other levers should be studied to reach the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, while waiting for the carbon tax to be redesigned.

Carbon pricing is considered by most economists as a central dimension to any climate policy. It is assumed to bring simple, transparent, and cost-effective means to change investment and consumption behaviors. The most straightforward method is carbon taxation, but its implementation is more complex. This study provides a comparative analysis of carbon taxation in three countries-Sweden, Canada, and France-aimed at drawing lessons for the future of carbon taxation. Comparing the experience of the three countries reveals that carbon taxes, once in place, do have the intended effect. In this sense, they work well. However, the analysis also reveals very different situations in terms of advances, difficulties, and results, which highlights the need to carefully consider the social and political conditions for the acceptance and effective implementation of such economic instruments. Against this background, the comparative analysis yields four main insights that deserve further research from economics and social scientists: the ability to combine pure economic instruments and other regulation or policies and measures. the management of lobbies and vested interests. the identification of a clear strategy for the recycling of the carbon revenues, whether earmarked or not. and finally, the importance of these three dimensions of carbon taxes in the new settings of zero net emission policies.

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The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in.

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Economists Patrick Criqui and Quentin Perrier advocate a diversified strategy that limits costs and drawbacks rather than an extreme choice that favors a single electricity production technique.

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en years ago, Alain Grandjean and I examined the state of energy and climate policies in France, one year after the Grenelle Environment Forum. It was in an international context marked by oil prices above $100/bl and, in France, by intense reflection on carbon taxation. A lot has happened in this area since then, and the question is whether real progress has been made, both in defining policies and in implementing them. Have we made much progress? What are the differences today in the perception of the stakes, the constraints and the opportunities?

Abstract The ongoing transformation of the world’s energy systems requires an international monitoring to evaluate the transformation processes and to identify transferable leading practice policies. For this purpose, an independent scientific expert commission should be established for the G20. By actively involving political decision-makers in the discussion of the final results a broad basis of support can be ensured. The Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth agreed at the G20 Summit in Hamburg recognizes explicitly the main proposals of this paper. The paper provides a broader discussion how to assist the G20’s energy transformation processes and describes steps towards implementation.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) before and after the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21), summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for NDCs format, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8 to 66.5 Gt CO2eq yr-1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010-2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming "climate regime": a clearer framework regarding future NDCs' design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.

The new bottom-up approach of the Paris agreement calls for a better understanding of the domestic dimension of development pathways and of the implications for global emissions trajectory. To this end, it is of strategic importance to provide a common framework that makes it possible to identify the key decarbonization wedges at the national level and to highlight the potential benefits of international cooperation. The article proposes an advanced index decomposition analysis methodology based on sectoral energy service indicators and on a specific decomposition in the power sector for quantifying the contribution of different mitigation strategies. It is applied to national deep decarbonization pathways elaborated in the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project (DDPP) by the sixteen largest GHG emitting countries. In a global perspective, the results reveal the key role of energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy carriers in the industry sector, deployment of renewables in the power sector and, to a lesser extent, coal/gas substitution, and efficiency and energy decarbonization in the transport sector. The analysis also calls for a deeper understanding of the role a reduction in energy-service demand can play in mitigation scenarios and of the respective contribution for industry of energy efficiency and structural change.

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The need for global action to limit greenhouse gas emissions is recognized by the majority of countries, but the inability of the international climate regime to provide global regulation of GHG emissions into the atmosphere has led to the failure of the top-down approach. This impossible consensus has led to a breaking point in the structure of the global climate regime, as evidenced by the development, prior to the Paris Agreement, of a bottom-up approach, based on polycentric and multi-level climate governance. It is in this context that the nineteen tradable emission permit systems currently operating in the world are emerging and developing at different administrative levels. In fact, no homogeneity is sought in the design of these regulatory mechanisms. The structural choices are dependent on the political and economic characteristics and constraints of the geographical area to which they belong. The configurations and effects of expanding tradable permit systems are still debated and this thesis provides recommendations on how such expansions and connections could take place.Based on analyses of the empirical literature and simulations using a partial equilibrium model for the energy sector (POLES model), we advocate the implementation of sectoral partitioning mechanisms and restrictions on permit trading. Indeed, in a context characterized by heterogeneous constructions of tradable emission permit systems, a non-universal diffusion of these markets and a non-integral inclusion of all sectors of the economy, we conclude that two types of adjustments are essential. First, we demonstrate the need for a sectoral configuration and partitioning of the markets, in order to foster innovation, limit the impact on international competitiveness, and bring the system into line with related policy requirements. Second, we justify the interest of restrictive mechanisms for international trade in tradable emission permits. In particular, they allow a better redistribution of the gains linked to the trade, while reducing the total cost of climate policy and the quantities of GHGs emitted compared to a pure segmentation of the markets.Finally, the existence of several carbon prices seems unavoidable in the current context of heterogeneous global climate governance and a multiplicity of national policy objectives. Encouraging the development of different prices by sector and by country would, under certain conditions, promote political acceptability, strengthen environmental effectiveness and improve the economic efficiency of emission permit systems.

The development of the district as a scale of a more sustainable urban development is part of a period of awareness related to climate change for which the European Union has set up an energy transition policy. Currently, eco-districts are structured around two key points at the energy level: energy efficiency and energy supply. Energy efficiency, which encompasses the energy performance of buildings and the control of energy demand, is the spearhead of existing local energy transition policies. In contrast, low-carbon energy supply does not yet seem to have reached sufficient maturity to be fully realized at the neighborhood scale. Nevertheless, the analysis of eco-neighborhood projects shows a growing interest in creating a low-carbon energy supply using local resources. This interest reflects, in particular, the desire of certain local actors to achieve a certain degree of energy autonomy. In order to consider the neighborhood as a relevant scale for low-carbon energy supply, it is necessary to analyze the technical-economic and institutional conditions to be implemented. It reveals the need for a paradigm shift in the structuring of energy systems from centralized to decentralized systems. However, this new paradigm is conditioned by the technical and economic maturity of the infrastructures that can be installed in the district and by the ability to find a viable business model that will make the investment profitable at this scale. From an institutional point of view, it causes a modification of the relations between the actors using the energy vectors studied (electricity and heat). The rise of new production profiles with the development of renewable energies and the emergence of new consumer profiles becoming producers modifies the energy value chain and obliges to guarantee the flexibility of energy systems to ensure their proper functioning. To try to shed light on the possible forms that these relationships could take, a methodological approach based on the construction of ideal-types has been carried out. It reveals the need for a new actor, the energy manager, to guarantee the proper functioning of the energy systems installed in the districts.

The massive integration of variable renewable energies (VRE) is causing significant changes in the electrical system. Previously developed in a vertical and centralized manner, the system was robust and reliable. However, VRE production is intermittent and unpredictable. Thus, the system needs to be more flexible with new options such as demand side management, storage or shaving of VRF production. However, the potential of EnRV is unevenly distributed in Europe and with high penetration rates of EnRV, electricity exchanges between regions will increase causing congestion in the grid. Thus, flexibility options may not be able to reduce this congestion. To analyze these effects, the work conducted in this thesis uses the long term prospective model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) coupled with the new power sector module EUTGRID (EUropean - Transmission Grid Investment and Dispatch). This module includes a detailed representation of the European transmission grid with a more realistic flow calculation. In addition, reinforcements are determined according to the congestion costs of each line. This new coupling allows for a dynamic evolution of the transmission network. The role of the transmission network is then analyzed and compared with other flexibility options. The investments in the grid increase strongly with high penetration rates of EnRVs while the flexibility options cannot fully replace the grid. Finally, an exploratory work is conducted with the introduction of generic distribution networks (urban, semi-urban and rural) in EUTGRID. The results show that the reinforcements are slightly shifted with an increase in the use of back-up technologies (i.e. gas power plants) which increases the total emissions.

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The National Alliance for the Coordination of Research for Energy, Ancre, undertook in 2016 the construction of a new energy scenario for France to 2050 that best satisfies the various targets and actions enshrined in the 2015 Law on the Energy Transition for Green Growth (LTECV) as well as the crossing points enshrined in the 2016 EPP. This scenario is produced with an "integrated calculator" (OPERA) based on the previous work of the Alliance established in particular in the framework of the national debate on the energy transition.

In this paper we demonstrate the role of electricity storage for the integration of high shares of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES 3) in the long-term evolution of the power system. For this a new electricity module is developed in POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). It now takes into account the impacts of VRES on the European power system. The power system operation relies on EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch), which includes daily storage and other inter-temporal constraints. The innovative aspect of our work is the direct coupling between POLES and EUCAD, thus combining a long-term simulation horizon and a short-term approach for the power system operation. The storage technologies represented are pumped-hydro storage, lithium-ion batteries, adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage (a-CAES) and electric vehicles (charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid). Demand response and European grid interconnections are also represented, in order to include to some extent these flexibility options. 2 Disclaimer: The views expressed are purely those of the writer and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. 3 Abbreviations: a-CAES: adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage.

The European Union (EU) is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 80%–95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Various approaches have been developed to secure and evaluate the progress made towards this objective. To gain insights into how EU Member States are aligning to this collective long-term objective, we systematically compare the planning and ex-ante evaluation processes for five EU countries (respectively Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). The comparative analysis consists of a qualitative comparison of (1) the governance of long-term policy planning and evaluation processes, (2) the national arrangement for quantitative (model-based) ex-ante policy evaluation and (3) the national arrangement for qualitative ex-ante policy evaluation (stakeholder participation). In a second step we conduct a quantitative comparison of national model-based ex-ante evaluation studies to assess the relative differences between the considered routes and the differences across the various countries. Although the five Member States plan policies along the same EU objective, we find a high diversity in how long-term commitments are established, governed and evaluated on the national level. Model-based scenario analyses are commonly used to explore and evaluate the possible national routes towards the EU 2050 objective. However, as these processes mostly concentrate on domestic action, they pay little attention to how domestic policies are affected by, or affecting, other international activities throughout Europe. Hence, current findings suggest that cross-border collaboration and stakeholder participation could further strengthen the analytical understanding of required transformative change in Europe and subsequently lead to a more durable long-term solution over time.

Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of each Member State of the European Union (EU), and the EU in aggregate, in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as sectoral activity levels and composition, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that while the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy system. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.

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This paper analyzes the renewal of the intellectual constructs that have contributed to the Paris Agreement. In this paradigm shift, the concept of Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) has created the space in which Nation-states have been free to engage in the process while setting their own goals for the medium term. A second key concept, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP), although less institutionalized, has been an effective tool to describe how these medium-term national targets were likely to fit into a longer-term perspective of global mitigation scenarios as studied in particular by the IPCC. The dialectical interaction between these two concepts should result in a more ambitious definition of national climate objectives and consequently in the design and implementation of stronger national climate policies.

As part of a reflection on the future trajectories of the French electricity system, this study sheds light on the medium-term structural issues. The first part analyzes the main factors of uncertainty that condition the transition of the French electricity sector on the technical, economic and political levels. The second part presents an exploratory analysis of four scenarios for the evolution of the electricity system up to 2030, aiming to evaluate the conditions for the coherence of these trajectories, taking into account the political objectives, and to analyze their capacity to respond to the issues identified in the first part, as well as their resilience with respect to the uncertainty factors that persist.

Energy and environmental issues are one of the major challenges for humanity in the 21st century. The global growth in energy demand is confronted with environmental concerns (including pollution, global warming and CO2 emission reduction), especially in rapidly growing economic regions such as Asia. Shifting the use of traditional energy sources such as coal, oil, to cleaner energy sources and renewable energy is an inevitable trend in the future. In the current context, natural gas is considered a clean energy source that will play an important role in the process of energy transition to a low-carbon economy. The consequences for natural gas markets can be considerable. The prerequisite for such a development is a large supply of natural gas. The development of unconventional gas, in particular shale gas, provides an opportunity to expand global gas supply, as demonstrated by the "shale gas revolution" in the United States. This has profoundly changed regional gas markets. However, this "revolution" is hardly replicable to other regions of the world. This thesis demonstrates in particular that, apart from geological factors, institutional (taxation, property rights), economic (prices, technologies) and organizational (market liberalization) conditions are necessary to ensure large-scale development of unconventional resources. This thesis shows that these conditions are mostly not met either in Europe or in Asia (notably in China). Therefore, a transition to gas to meet the climate challenges in Asia will be done through imports and not through the region's own production. From three POLES model scenarios based on assumptions of climate policy, shale gas development and rapid increase of gas demand in the energy mix, especially in Asia, two main conclusions emerge. First of all, the importance of the development of shale gas in the USA and its low production cost lead to an abundant and competitive gas supply compared to other energies, especially compared to coal. Consequently, even without a climate policy, the conditions are in place for the share of natural gas in the energy mix to grow. Second, a strong climate policy has contradictory effects on the importance of natural gas in the energy mix of Asian countries. On the one hand, it allows a greater penetration of natural gas in their energy mix. But at the same time, limiting energy demand, the volumes of natural gas demanded are only slightly higher than in scenarios without climate policy.

The global energy transition implies an accelerated development of new and renewable energies for electricity production (ENRe), which implies new technical, economic and regulatory challenges for the electricity sector. However, a stronger commitment of emerging and developing countries to deep economic decarbonization requires a strengthening of promotion policies as well as the design of regulatory instruments better adapted to the specificities of their economic and institutional contexts.This thesis addresses the issue of the design, implementation and evaluation of policies for the promotion of ENRe adapted to the context of Latin American countries. To this end, we first use environmental economics to analyze the different regulatory instruments available, characterize them and propose evaluation criteria, based on a thorough review of the literature. We then carry out a panel econometric study to identify the determinants of investments in new ENRe capacities and to measure the effectiveness of policies. Third, we mobilize the evolutionary theory of technological change to analyze in depth the process of policy implementation, the existing barriers and the results obtained. This analysis is based on three case studies of the electricity sector in Chile, Brazil and Argentina. Finally, we explore the issues related to the massive deployment of ENRe in Latin America by 2030-2040: the integration of intermittent energies, access to financing and the industrial challenge. Our analyses highlight that the transformations of the economic and institutional context drive a dynamic that conditions the choices of public policies and their performance. We therefore propose the basis of an analytical framework for the design and evaluation of ambitious long-term promotion policies. These policies must be integrated into a multidimensional and coherent project for the energy sector. Specifically regarding the choice of the promotion instrument and its design elements, we have highlighted four principles to be taken into account especially in the context of emerging countries: the level of risk for investors, the total cost of the policy for the consumer, the institutional adequacy of the instrument and, finally, its flexibility to support technologies with different degrees of technico-economic maturity. This flexibility must also respond to multiple objectives linked to the socio-economic development process of each country.

Households are responsible for a significant share of energy consumption and CO2 emissions, especially if we take into account energy consumption and indirect emissions related to the production processes of goods and services consumed. Several scientific works and recommendations of governmental and non-governmental organizations underline that changes in consumption patterns will probably be necessary to reach the climate objectives set today. Our thesis proposes a method of prospective analysis of lifestyle changes, which allows us to estimate the macro-economic impacts as well as those on energy consumption and CO2 emissions, while taking into account the heterogeneity of households in terms of behavior and energy consumption. Our method explores the consumption patterns of households in a detailed way, taking into account the link between time use and consumption. Indeed, consumption choices are subject not only to budget constraints, but also to time constraints that are never taken into account in macroeconomic forecasting. We build a database detailing the time use, expenditure and energy consumption of French households and we link it to an economic energy-emissions forecasting model through an iterative reweighting process. We illustrate the scope of this tool through the analysis of three scenarios, centered respectively on the diffusion of new forms of mobility (carpooling and carsharing), the generalization of online shopping and the return to do-it-yourself food. For all three scenarios we observe reductions in energy consumption and CO2 emissions. For example, total emissions decrease by 2.3% in 2050 in the mobility scenario.

This working paper analyzes the level of effort required to reach the INDC targets of the 13 countries of the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project. The objective is to assess and compare the levels of effort required to reach the INDC targets, both between countries and with respect to longer-term trajectories (2050) that are part of the global objective of limiting temperature increase to below 2°C. A methodology is put in place to transcribe the INDCs into LULUCF net CO2 emission levels. The POLES model is then used to reveal the implicit carbon value of the INDCs and to allow comparability of national targets between them. Finally, the creation of an INDCext scenario allows us to understand the INDCs in relation to longer-term national objectives (2050) compatible with the global objective of limiting the temperature increase to below 2°C.

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In contrast to the top-down approach that prevailed until the Copenhagen conference, the Paris Agreement is built on a bottom-up approach in which countries are free to set their own decarbonization targets through Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). This text presents the carbon value implicit in each of these contributions by 2030 for the 13 countries with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, representing 75% of global emissions. These are compared to the carbon values implicit in the long-term national emissions levels of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) project, which has enabled the development of national trajectories compatible with a global 2°C pathway. For each country, the gap between the implied carbon value of the INDCs and the emission levels of the DDP project is considerable. This shows that the ambition of national contributions will have to be significantly revised upwards in the next negotiation rounds. We also emphasize the central role that long-term national decarbonization trajectories will have to play in the definition of INDCs to ensure that the medium-term constraints of the INDCs are consistent with the long-term options incorporating the 2°C objective.

The COP21 reaffirmed the indispensable role of reducing CO2 emissions in the fight against global warming. To this end, new technologies can be a decisive lever. A study conducted by ANCRE underlines the need to invest massively in these technologies to achieve a deep decarbonization of the global energy system.

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This Issue Brief examines the benefits that can be derived from the establishment of long-term decarbonization strategies at the national level. Such national strategies are essential facilitators of international dialogue towards more ambitious and effective action at domestic level.

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In order to assess the adequacy of the EU and its Member States policies with the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation objectives, this study goes beyond the aggregate GHG emissions or energy use figures and analyse the underlying drivers of emission changes, following a sectoral approach (power generation, buildings, industry, and transport).

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We outline here what could be the new course of the geopolitics of energy innovations. Various prospective studies allow us to identify structural elements of global decarbonization scenarios. Then, by changing the paradigm, we analyze the decarbonized futures, based on their current conception in the major countries involved in the energy scene. Finally, we characterize the current state of industrial competition for the development of low-carbon energy technologies.

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This brief focuses on the engagement strategy developed by the DDPP teams to have an impact on the domestic processes. It takes the examples of three countries (Australia, Canada and France), reflecting a diversity of institutional circumstances, for which we present the context of domestic climate discussions and how the DDPP studies have been useful to affect policy debates Cet Issue Brief analyse les « stratégies d'engagement » développées par les équipes du Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project dans l'objectif d'influencer les processus de décision nationaux.

In this paper we analyze research gaps and identify new directions of research in relation to a number of facets of the Paris Agreement, including the new 1.5 °C objective, the articulation between near-term and long-term mitigation pathways, negative emissions, verification, climate finance, non-Parties stakeholders, and adaptation.

Contrary to 'static' pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policymakers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. But given structural, effectiveness and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level.

The issue of reducing CO2 emissions is now clearly posed worldwide and the COP21 has highlighted the new international requirements that countries could or should face in the short term. The fundamental objective of the thesis is to contribute to the identification of possible solutions in the field of increasing electricity production in a developing country, Vietnam, taking into account the necessary reduction of carbon-based energy sources. To this end, several scenarios concerning the development of the electricity sector in Vietnam are constructed in order to measure the effects of the choices relating to the production of electricity on CO2 emissions. After having presented an overview of the energy situation in Vietnam and highlighted the rapid increase in electricity consumption due to demographic pressure and the expression of new needs, the question of coal and gas imports and that of the production of new forms of energy are posed, with regard to the economic constraints, but also environmental. Theoretical reflections, the study of the construction of electricity master plans, the analysis of available economic tools and the application of energy demand forecasting models allow us to understand the complexity of the "electricity gamble" facing Vietnam. After a presentation of potential quantitative simulation tools, ELECsim was chosen for the modeling of the electricity sector in Vietnam. The scenarios are based on several assumptions regarding the evolution of economic growth and demographics, energy prices, the development of power generation technologies, the reported value of carbon, discount rates and exchange rates. Vietnam can first control demand growth through strong action on energy efficiency, while simultaneously reducing both electricity production costs and CO2 emissions. Several scenarios are then proposed, highlighting both the need for greater energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon energies, in the context of a rapid reorientation of policy choices in the face of the needs of accelerated but also sustainable economic development. Six scenarios have been built, based on a reference scenario, successively insisting on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS technology, renewable energies and a more balanced electricity mix. The global environmental constraint (reduction of CO2 emissions) is a priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country that is currently more concerned with the cost of supply. The scenarios analyzed in the thesis take into account the reduction of the carbon intensity of the Vietnamese power sector. It is then proposed, as a threshold for the benchmark, the emission level of 50 to 80 g/kWh (chosen from the thresholds studied by two Asian economies neighboring Vietnam such as Indonesia and India). The different power generation mixes proposed seem to offer relevant solutions. They allow us to meet the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of Vietnam's electricity sector. The analysis takes into account the growing pressure of demand, the security of fuel supply with alternative choices, the reduction of total costs of high power generation, the control of the external bill, the consideration of the social impact (especially on the health of citizens) and land use, and finally, the respect of the standards related to the protection of the regional, national and global environment

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This thesis deals with cooperation and climate governance in the post-Copenhagen era. Its objective is to characterize the evolution of the climate regime, based on the positions of the European Union, China and the United States, which can be designated as large emitters, major economies and great powers. Two determinants are considered structuring for this analysis: the costs of mitigation and the costs of adaptation. The starting point of our thesis is the polarized evolution of the climate regime. The most significant fact of this "metamorphosis" is the shift, in 2009, from a top-down to a bottom-up approach.To do so, we mobilize a hybrid theoretical framework, which includes International Political Economy and the Economics of Climate Change. The combined contribution of these two approaches allows us to analyze international climate policy through environmental economics and conversely, to inform the impact that these relationships can have on economic logic. We propose a specific approach to cooperation based on Duncan Snidal's (1985) "k-group" theory.Within this minilateral cooperative framework, the thesis we argue is that it is possible to have a k-group for climate and that it can have a beneficial effect on climate regime development. We argue that this group can be considered a "club of the relevant" and that, in order to form a k-group, it is necessary for countries to form a "coalition of the willing". What structures the capacity and willingness to act are primarily the costs involved, both mitigation and adaptation costs. At the same time, the commitment of this group is based on conditioning. The incentive device is the idea of increasingly broad cooperation, which mitigates the free rider problem.The research results are appreciated in light of the outcome of COP 21. If the k-group works, it is because the three countries decide to move forward and agree to shoulder greater mitigation costs than other countries. This collective commitment would trigger a virtuous movement that would impose shared leadership on the climate regime among these three countries, paving the way for the others. If the k-group does not work, it is because our actors consider the short-term costs too high in relation to their own interests and in relation to the risk of free riding by other states. Given the economic situation in which our three actors find themselves, this scenario appears to be probable.Finally, in our model of the analysis of cooperation, we favor the Europe-China tandem. We show that this tripartite cooperation should be built from this pair, since, unlike the United States, it is Europe that appears to be more willing. China, the key player in the climate field, which is likely to suffer the full consequences of climate change, has more interest in joining Europe if it wishes to obtain an agreement that is not based solely on minimum (national) contributions.

The PV market has experienced strong growth over the past decade, supported by favorable policy actions in a context of energy transition. However, despite these beneficial conditions, the global PV market has paradoxically gone through a chaotic period with overproduction problems, an industrial crisis and long-lasting trade disputes between countries. This thesis takes these issues as a starting point and attempts to understand PV public policies and their impacts on technology and market dynamics. In order to clarify these issues, a systemic approach is used to provide a correct understanding of the general mechanisms of PV public policies. A concrete systemic overview of these mechanisms is constructed based on theoretical and historical analyses by defining key variables and context. A retrospective analysis using purpose-built mappings is conducted to identify critical limitations and challenges of the PV sector as well as risk factors. This thesis also shows how the nature of the policy environment is changing in conjunction with the dynamics of the PV sector. The thesis highlights that the national dynamics have been broken by China's entry into the PV sector. The thesis ultimately proposes strategic directions for PV development along two dimensions, domestic and international. At the national level, the thesis focuses on PV self-consumption as a natural way to use PV energy in the power system. This analysis implies a change in the nature of PV policies in the future. Finally, in order to solve the current industrial crisis, the thesis presents possibilities for collaborative international actions to create a new PV demand in the international context by seeking economic and environmental benefits at the global level.

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The purpose of this thesis is to study the role of energy in long-term economic growth. Chapter 1 describes the four main facts of growth: the transition from stagnation to sustainability, the Great Divergence, the interdependence between energy consumption and technical progress, and the dynamics in nested and hierarchical cycles. The various remote causes of growth (biogeography, culture, institutions and contingency) are then studied. Chapter 2 presents the theories involving so-called proximate causes, such as technical progress and the accumulation of physical and human capital. The unified growth theory (UGT) is also analyzed. Chapter 3 presents the fundamental laws of thermodynamics and the associated concepts of exergy and entropy. It is then shown that only the consumption of exergy services is a fundamental cause of growth. In chapter 4, it is established that world oil and gas production (but not coal) has already exceeded its maximum energy rate of return (EROI), so that future conventional production will be with a decreasing EROI. Chapter 5 shows that the higher metal requirements of renewable technologies could be a constraint to the successful feasibility of the energy transition. Chapter 6 shows that the net energy constraint materializes in the short term through the energy expenditure (share of the economic product consumed to obtain energy). Chapter 7 presents a theoretical model of endogenous growth integrating the biophysical approach.

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Nuclear energy cost structure makes it a base load technology. In the cases where varíable renewable production has a higher priority on the grid, renewable lechnologies will reduce load factors of dispatchable technologies. If not able to follow residual load, nuclear reaclors could be supplanted by more flexible technologies. In this paper, we study the disregarded load following capacity of nuclear reactors for the nuclear industry in terms of preserved market share.

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Global warming may be one of the greatest threats facing the human civilization. It is now widely shared that it is necessary to reduce quickly and significantly the greenhouse gas emissions to avoid uncontrolled and irreversible evolutions of climate. It has now become urgent to develop a legal instrument addressing the post-2020 period and to achieve a successful outcome in the international climate negotiations. In this paper we propose a new computational tool which provides elements of benchmarking for the climate negotiations. The model and algorithm we propose is designed on rationale elaborated by energy and climate policy experts. We detail how to estimate the parameters of the model and how this benchmarking tool could be used.

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The physical architecture of power grids and the organizational structures of the power industries that have emerged as a result of reforms have been designed primarily around the characteristics of transmission infrastructure and generation assets. However, the new energy transition challenges, coupled with advances in communication and automation equipment, argue for greater involvement of decentralized generation activities and end consumers. We note that electrical systems are on the verge of major evolutions that share a double characteristic. The first is that these changes will require considerable capital investments to adapt and modernize the distribution networks. The second is that the activation of the downstream part of the electricity chain will release economic efficiency gains that are currently untapped, but will also bring new constraints. Based on this observation, the objective of this thesis is twofold. First, we propose a theoretical analysis of the regulatory instruments that frame and guide the expenditures of network operators. Based on the literature, we seek to characterize the regulatory tools that are best suited to investment in smart technologies. Since it is necessary to confront the theoretical analysis with the facts, we undertake to identify the key economic efficiency gains expected from the generalization of smart grids. We illustrate each of these gains with an empirical study that allows us to compare the results of our theoretical analysis to existing regulation schemes and to formulate a number of recommendations.The second objective of the thesis focuses on the impacts of the diffusion of demand-side management programs. The reasoning adopted is based on two observations. Important benefits are expected from substantial reductions in peak demand, reductions that translate into reduced profit opportunities for producers. The aim is to estimate the gains and losses that can be expected from demand management. To do so, we develop and use an optimization model in which we integrate several interconnected countries with differentiated generation fleets.The thesis shows that the currently dominant regulatory frameworks are limited in their incentive scope to promote efficient investment in the technology, which is likely to delay its introduction. Quantifying the impacts of demand-side management shows that significant efficiencies can be achieved through the generalization of these measures. However, they pose new problems in the remuneration of existing and future capacity adequacy, and highlight the potential antagonism between loss of revenue for the most reactive peak units and the development of low-carbon energies.Clearly, the questions raised by the development of smart grids require an informed political debate, as the electricity industry is essential to our societies. Among the considerable number of issues to be addressed, questions about the financing of investment projects and the inclusion of new sources of flexibility brought about by the adoption of the technology in the liberalized electricity markets will figure prominently.

This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.

The development of wind and solar renewable energies implies rethinking the long-term models of the energy system. Indeed, the short and long term impacts of wind and solar intermittent productions on the electrical system lead to a need for flexibility: highly reactive production plants, demand management, improvement of the electrical network or electricity storage. The first major contribution to the state of the art is the addition of electricity storage and the European electricity grid in the POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) model. A new investment mechanism has been developed, better adapted to the challenges of renewables. It includes several economic values of storage. On the other hand, a new typology applicable to both energy forecasting models and detailed tools for the electricity sector has shown the interest of bringing together these two approaches. Thus, the second main contribution is the annual coupling of POLES to a power system operation model, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch), which optimizes the technical-economic allocation of European generation and storage plants. The bi-directional exchange of information allows us to benefit from both the long-term consistency of the POLES economic scenarios and the technical detail of EUCAD. A conservative scenario foresees a rapid development of the cheapest flexibility options: interconnections, hydro storage and demand side management - be it through load shedding or through the optimization of the charging and discharging of electric vehicle batteries. Stationary batteries, which are more expensive, are being developed in the second half of the century. Their development could be accelerated by a reduction of the fixed costs of storage, which is more effective than an improvement in efficiency. The explicit links between intermittent renewables and electricity storage are also apparent from the results.

The DDPP France report assesses two contrasting decarbonization trajectories for France by 2050, one based on an ambitious reduction in energy demand, the other on a strong decarbonization of energy. The first trajectory is based on a 50% reduction in final energy consumption by 2050, the flagship objective of the recent law on Energy Transition for Green Growth. However, there are many obstacles to achieving such a goal, particularly for the effective implementation of a vast energy efficiency program and for making the necessary shifts in transportation. If climate policies fail to achieve such an energy demand reduction target, additional decarbonized energy potentials would have to be mobilized. This is not without its challenges, such as the deployment of 3rd generation nuclear power plants, carbon capture and sequestration technology or the large-scale development of biomass energy. The report analyzes the sectoral policies to be implemented and their obstacles, and conducts an economic evaluation of these two trajectories. Taking into account the uncertainties specific to each of these trajectories, the report shows that a strategy based on a strong reduction in demand is more robust than a strategy that favors the decarbonization of energy supply: by reducing the need for decarbonized energy, it leaves more room for maneuver in the event that demand reduction policies fail. Finally, even if the decarbonization of the economy generates growth and employment in the medium term, adjustment costs appear in the short term, which can hinder any political decision in this area. Proposals are made to reduce these adjustment costs and thus promote the rapid triggering of the energy transition.

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.

The exploration of future energy system trajectories needs to be based on long-term scenarios, which in turn requires using long-term modelling tools. Introducing a strong decarbonisation constraint, for instance, profoundly modifies the power sector, which is impacted by increasing shares of variable renewable energy sources. Long-term modelling tools working on different assumptions increasingly factor in these impacts, the assessment of which requires a clear description and categorization of the technical and economic choices for representing the tools in question. A new typology based on a literature review is presented for both power sector models and long-term models of the energy system. New comparing criteria focussing on the power sector's components are put forward, such as electricity storage and grid. An analysis carried out by means of this categorization on five chosen models shows that, up until now, energy modelling tools and power system tools have been designed to meet separate objectives and have not combined their advantages.

The study assesses the abatement potential of the main energy technologies (supply and demand). Two approaches have been developed: one is based on technological scenarios developed within the framework of the DDPP project. The other is the result of work carried out, technology by technology, by ANCRE's experts and scientists.

The paper presents a model-based approach describing the impacts of climate change on the European energy system. Existing analyses only estimate a limited range of climate impacts over a limited geographical area. Using the POLES model and the results from several climate models, the present paper quantifies the main impacts of climate change on the European energy sector, country by country, thus achieving progress in this direction. As far as energy demand is concerned, our main finding is that higher temperatures will mean that air-conditioning will consume more energy, reaching about 53 Mtoe by 2100 in a scenario with no strong emissions constraints (A1B). On the other hand less energy will be consumed for heating buildings, falling by about 65 Mtoe per year. This represents a net decrease in energy consumption of about 12 Mtoe by 2100. On the supply side, more constrained and expensive operating conditions for electric power plants will result in lower electricity generation by thermal, nuclear and hydro-power plants, with a maximum decrease of about 200 TWh in 2070 in the A1B scenario and 150 TWh in 2060 and 2080 for a low emissions scenario (E1). These effects vary a great deal across Europe and remain very dependent on the uncertainties affecting the results of the various climate models. This overall uncertainty may inhibit effective decisions. However the study offers insights not otherwise available without the full coverage of the energy system provided by POLES and climate features provided by climate models. The study identifies the main impacts of climate change in a strategic sector and provides an "order of magnitude" or "central trend" for these impacts, which might be useful in an adaptive policy of act, learn and then act again.

A dynamic simulation of coupled supply and demand of energy, resources and nuclear reactors is done with the global model Prospective Outlook for Long Term Energy Supply (POLES) over this century. In this model, both electricity demand and uranium supply are not independent of the cost of all base load electricity suppliers. Uranium consuming Thermal Neutron Reactors and future generation, free from the uranium market once started, breeder reactors are only one part of the market and are in a global competition, not limited to the other nuclear generation. In this paper we present a new model of the impact of uranium scarcity on the development of nuclear reactors. Many scenarios rely on the subjective definition of ultimate uranium resources. We suggest that when uranium will mainly be extracted together with other resources, its cost should not be simply a function of cumulated uranium mined but also of mine yearly outputs. We describe the sensitivities of our model to breeder reactor physical performance indicators. Used fuels can be seen as a liability or as a source of usable material and a scarce resource limiting fast reactor startups in fast development in India or China. We present the impact of synergetic strategies where countries with opposite strategies share used fuels.

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In France as in Switzerland, local authorities are becoming major players in the energy transition, a transition whose implementation requires a major renewal of public intervention instruments. The present work aims to examine the challenges and conditions of such a renewal, based on the territorial energy planning experiments conducted in the Franco-Vaud-Geneva conurbation. Conceived as approaches to the relocation of energy sectors - sectors whose components, along with fossil fuels, were external to the consumer territories - these energy planning approaches are examined here from an institutionalist and pragmatic perspective.Consisting in apprehending these approaches as surveys with a vocation, through a collective work of cognitive (re)equipment of the field of territorial intervention FVG, to initiate and accompany the reconstruction of the modes of coordination of the men about their territory - territory understood in its triple material, organizational and political dimension -, this grid opens towards a double reading of the experiments of energy planning. The first focuses on the organizational dimension of these investigations in the making, i.e. on the cultures of action present and the modalities of interaction between them, while the second focuses on the cognitive substance that supports these interactions, i.e. on the logics of reflection that preside over the mobilization and the production of territorial representations linked to these approaches.This double reading allows us to draw lessons at different levels. The first concerns the (cognitive) field of territorial intervention that these energy planning approaches help to define. This field, although better understood in its technical dimensions, remains both limited and "deformed" in such a way that it gives greater value to fossil fuels, which we would like to get rid of, than to renewable energy sources, which we would like to replace. The second level of teaching concerns the processes of production of territorial knowledge (PPCT) that preside over the delimitation and "equipment" of this field of intervention. Understood through the institutional norms that frame them, and the cultures of action whose interactions can initiate processes of destabilization-reconstruction of these norms, these PPCTs turn out to give rise to socio-cognitive "border zones", zones that are favorable to such reconfigurations, but which require, in the case of FVG, prior "planning" work.The third category of lessons focuses on the factors that are most decisive for the quality of this "planning" - a planning that is no longer merely cognitive but refers, more globally, to the conditions of implementation of investigations whose ultimate goal remains collective territorial action. These elements open up the challenges and avenues of renewal opened up by these energy planning processes in terms of public action, and they also allow us to take a new look at the conurbation project under construction in this cross-border territory.

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Like governments, businesses have realized that reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is inevitable. They have solutions, but they depend on public policies to deploy them on a massive scale. Depending on the policies adopted at the international level, they can benefit from the energy transition or, on the contrary, see their competitiveness threatened. Their growing involvement in the preparation of international agreements bears witness to their expectations and the importance of these issues.

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Considering that limiting global warming to below 2°C implies a CO2 budget not to be exceeded and near-zero emissions by 21OO (IPCC), we can assess global 2030 greenhouse gas emissions implied by INDCs in comparison to long-term trajectories. Ahead of the COP21, we estimate that submitted INDCs would bring global greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 55 to 64 GtC02eq in 2030. Under this assumption,global emissions in 2030 are thus higher than the level of 51GtC0 2eq for the year 2012. However, this is not in contradiction with a peaking of global emissions that can only be expected after 2020, given in particular the projected dynamics of emissions in China and other developing countries. The published INDCs represent a significant step towards trajectories compatible with the 2°C goal,but remain insufficient to join trajectories presenting a reasonable probability of success. ln order to increase the chance of meeting the 2°C objective, the ambition of the short-term contributions needs to be strengthened in future negotiations. ln order to sustain a high pace in emissions reductions after 2030,structural measures are also needed, which, in order to have a rapi impact, should be prepared as early as possible. Continued efforts are needed to accelerate the development of low carbon solutions on the one hand,and demonstrate the feasibility of negative emissions on the other hand.

The 16 research teams mobilized in the project have elaborated and deepened their decarbonization trajectories compared to the 2014 report, refining their results and conclusions through several scenarios defining different possible decarbonization directions for a single country. On a global scale, the report shows that deep decarbonization of the current highest-emitting economies is technically feasible, while taking into account expected projections for population and economic growth. These decarbonization trends already appear to be compatible with the objective of a maximum of 2°C of warming by 2100 . and the various teams have identified even more drastic emission reduction potentials. In addition, in the future, these conclusions may be completed by other countries and by taking into account emissions from sources not analyzed by the DDPP (land use, industrial processes, etc.). The 2015 report particularly emphasizes the compatibility of decarbonization and economic and social development objectives. Indeed, decarbonization allows first of all to avoid the deleterious effects of climate change, and is in parallel with a strategy of significant improvement of essential services such as access to energy. Deep decarbonization strategies can contribute to the sustainable development of countries. Finally, the investments needed for deep decarbonization, of the order of 0.8% of GDP in 2020 (1.3% in 2050), do not represent a major additional cost compared to the investments needed in the absence of climate policies. Moreover, provided adequate signals are given in the long term, the reorientation of investments towards low-carbon technologies opens up significant commercial prospects. In the context of COP21, where an agreement for a new climate regime from 2020 onwards is currently being negotiated, decarbonization strategies are essential to inform the roadmaps for long-term choices, thus avoiding lock-in situations, particularly technological ones, which could ultimately slow down climate action and delay its effects.

The bill on the energy transition for green growth was adopted by Parliament on October 14 and must now be examined by the Senate. What has been the genealogy of this project? Is it relevant and feasible? Patrick Criqui, an economist at the Pacte-Edden laboratory (CNRS, Université Pierre-Mendès-France) in Grenoble, France, provides an update.

Energy systems are changing worldwide: new energy policies promote more sustainable energy productions, including Variable Renewable Energy sources (VREs) such as wind or solar. The long-term implications of the variability and relative unpredictability of these non dispatchable energy sources need to be assessed, for example with energy scenarios. Indeed, electricity is not a homogeneous good: its value depends on the time, space and how variable a production is. Long-term energy models are used, VREs integration challenges being a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long-term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VREs on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long-term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows that – despite all the recent modelling efforts – no long-term energy model represents in detail all the impacts of VREs on the power sector. For example, the sequential representation of the electricity storage operation is too precise for many long-term models. Therefore we develop a dedicated new power sector module, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch). The particularity of the work is that it is connected to POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems), one of the most technology-detailed long-term energy models. We present the first results of this new detailed electricity module.

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The public research organizations of the National Alliance for the Coordination of Energy Research present their scenarios for France's energy transition. How to reduce the share of nuclear power in electricity production by 50% in 2025 and how to divide GHG emissions by four by 2050? For ANCRE, considerable investments will be necessary to develop new technologies and build distribution networks, and to encourage changes in consumer behavior.

Study report on three possible scenarios for the evolution of the French energy system by 2050, aiming to achieve the "factor 4" (division by at least 4 of the emissions of Greenhouse Gases, or GHG, related to energy compared to the year 1990).

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Few papers have analysed the consequences of low climate stabilisation. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.

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A growing number of academic studies and reports from international organizations point to an increased dependence of new energy technologies on a category of resources often referred to as rare metals. At the same time, concerns have been raised for several years about the economic availability of these metals for the energy transition needed to combat global warming. The objective of this thesis is therefore to highlight all the constraints and risks involved in the frequent and widespread use of these metals in new energy technologies. The first part of the thesis is devoted to the indicators and theories related to the long-term economic availability of a non-renewable resource while highlighting a set of common traits shared by rare metals. The second part of this thesis demonstrates the risks attached to a lack of price elasticity in the supply of rare metals due to a by-product constraint. It also provides an in-depth analysis of the causes and consequences of the absence of a futures market for almost all of these rare metals. Finally, its last chapter proposes to explore the very strong connection between the energy sector and the metals sector. It is shown that this connection is growing and that it implies the possibility of a vicious circle between ever less concentrated energy (with a growing metal content) and metals that consume more and more energy due to their depletion.

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Energy systems are changing worldwide, and particularly in Europe, where energy policies promote a more sustainable energy production. Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRE) such as wind or solar are benefiting from these policies, but the long term implications need to be anticipated, through energy scenarios. Long term energy models are used, and VRE integration challenges are a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VRE on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows that, despite all the recent modelling efforts, no long term energy model represents in detail the power sector, with all the impacts of VRE. For example, there is no real representation of the electricity storage operation. Therefore we develop a new power sector module for POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems), one of the most technology-detailed long term energy models. We present the first results of this new detailed electricity module.

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Emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. There is currently no regional emissions inventory that provides estimates of anthropogenic combustion for the African continent. This work provides a quantification of the evolution of African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030, using a bottom-up method. This inventory predicts very large increases in black carbon, organic carbon, CO, NOx, SO2 and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions if no emission regulations are implemented. This paper discusses the effectiveness of scenarios involving certain fuels, specific to Africa in each activity sector and each region (western, eastern, northern and southern Africa), to reduce the emissions. The estimated trends in African emissions are consistent with emissions provided by global inventories, but they display a larger range of values. African combustion emissions contributed significantly to global emissions in 2005. This contribution will increase more significantly by 2030: organic carbon emissions will for example make up 50% of the global emissions in 2030. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of African anthropogenic emissions could be similar to African biomass burning emissions around 2030.

One of the most important outcomes during the last Conferences of the Parties was the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, which can be seen not only as a window of opportunity, but as a necessity to act. Our concern in the present paper is with the identification of an appropriate international climate-policy architecture in order to foster climate governance. The paper attempts to raise awareness towards the Soft landing commitment scheme which is proposed as an element of answer to the climate-policy dilemma. The scheme (REDEM for REDuction of Emissions) proposes a pathway to stabilize the emissions with a timing and a level of commitment, which are differentiated on the basis of capability (per capita income levels) and responsibility (per capita emissions). We present a couple of simulation examples which show different ways to conceive the shapes of the emissions and their rates of variation. The REDEM algorithm is designed as a tool for the benchmarking of supposed national emission reduction trajectories. The tool shows a practical way to guide the potential national trajectories, through a convergence mechanism into a comprehensible framework.

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Global warming may be one of the greatest threats facing the human civilization. It is now widely shared that it is necessary to reduce quickly and significantly the greenhouse gas emissions to avoid uncontrolled and irreversible evolutions of climate. It has now become urgent to develop a legal instrument addressing the post-2020 period and to achieve a successful outcome in the international climate negotiations. In this paper we propose a new computational tool which provides elements of benchmarking for the climate negotiations. The model and algorithm we propose is designed on rationale elaborated by energy and climate policy experts. We detail how to estimate the parameters of the model and how this benchmarking tool could be used.

The synthesis report "Assessing Pathways toward Ambitious Climate Targets at the Global and European Levels" presents the following key findings from the AMPERE project: - Global progress to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next two decades is crucial for achieving ambitious climate targets at low costs - Europe can signal the will for strong emissions reductions - with large climate benefits if others follow - Decarbonisation holds challenges and opportunities for Europe These findings are based on the AMPERE research efforts by 22 international institutions from February 2011 to January 2014 with the use of 17 energy-economy and integrated assessment models.

This report presents the state of the art of social sciences and humanities research on the environment (strengths, multidisciplinary research areas covered, etc.), identifies strategic research directions on which significant human and financial resources should be mobilized, and formulates a certain number of recommendations to improve research mechanisms on this theme. The participation of the human and social sciences is necessary for reflections on fundamental and urgent questions related to the global environment, the development of new energy resources and geopolitical reconfigurations. The potential contributions of the social sciences and humanities on these issues are numerous and wide-ranging: they rely on their capacity to question the social in its different dimensions in order to better understand the processes and their determinants, to evaluate their effects and to propose, if necessary, corrective measures or innovations in public policies. Thus, the aim here is not to set out a roadmap for the energy transition, but to question this notion beyond the current national debate, which is a way of enriching it and putting it into perspective. The challenge of this report is that the technical nature of the issues should not discourage or disqualify other approaches: sociological, political, geographical, ethical. The field of energy is marked by the deployment of technologies, old and new, which range from production to consumption, including modes of marketing, governance and representation of phenomena. These social innovations cannot be appreciated and valued without the active participation of SHS, as technical solutions only make sense when deployed in specific times and places. The question of energy arises because it is first and foremost a social question: that of uses, organizations, and actors, as well as that of inequalities in access, precariousness, consumption, and geopolitical conflicts. A modest but crucial step, this report demonstrates the mobilization of the various SHS communities on energy-related issues. Researchers and teacher-researchers can provide skills to study the new forms of decentralization, territorialization, participation. specific to this field. The research directions presented here are innovative for the humanities and social sciences and beyond. They are essential to current political debates, well beyond the questions of acceptability or "impact" where the SHS are too often identified. Compared to an inherited model, organized by States and large companies around a reduced technological bouquet, the existence of a multitude of technological options and the rise of other actors, notably territorial ones, also makes SHS approaches indispensable. Territorialization completely changes the deal. SHS are central to the evaluation of the deployment of renewable energies, in their various aspects: new areas of implementation, controversies, insertion into existing systems, etc. The challenge of the energy transition can be summed up as follows: to simultaneously consider ways to significantly reduce GHG emissions and to reflect in depth and independently on the nuclear option. This challenge cannot be met without giving high priority to energy research in the human and social sciences. Contributors to this report: Pierre Charbonnier, Patrick Criqui, Alain Dollet, Patrick-Paul Duval, Pierre Fournier, Claude Gilbert, Bernd Grambow, Olivier Labussière, Joseph Fourier, Sandra Laugier, Elisabeth Le Net, Catherine Locatelli, Alain Nadaï, Sébastien Velut.

This thesis deals with the modernization of the Urban Water Systems of Europe XV (UWS). Beginning in the late 1990s, this process of re-regulation of EUHSs is transforming the European regulatory framework for water management. It aims to improve the functioning of governance in order, in particular, to set a sustainable course for the EUMS. However, the interim assessments are mixed and highlight the need for an analytical characterization and explanation of the modernization of EUWHs, in order to identify unanticipated effects. Therefore, the thesis addresses the effects of SHUE modernization in its organizational and sustainable dimensions. The objective of the thesis is to provide an interpretation of the impacts of modernization on the governance structure of SHUEs and its effectiveness from a sustainability perspective. Anchored in an institutional economics approach, the approach adopted compares the German, French and English models and is organized in two stages. The first stage is based on empirical observation. The phenomena characterizing modernization are identified and formulated in the form of stylized facts. The second part explains these phenomena theoretically. In view of the contributions and limitations of the various institutional approaches, it is decided to mobilize the neoinstitutionalist current to account for the organizational aspects and the Institutional Resource Regimes approach to deal with the sustainable dimension of the modernization of the SHUE. This thesis argues that modernization leads to a mutation of the coordination modalities of SHUEs, while intensifying and polarizing the sustainability problems around the economic pillar. At the organizational level, we show that, on the one hand, modernization tends to depoliticize SHUEs and that, on the other hand, the degree of integration of its principles in a SHUE is positively correlated to a resilient socio-institutional dynamic. These two phenomena are mainly the result of a hybridization of institutional arrangements towards the market pole. The change in contractual forms and the attenuation of property rights within SHUEs reduce the direct control of the state and increase the capacity of actors to adapt quickly. Regarding the potential for sustainability, a lack of coherence in the development of the re-regulation of SHUEs explains the relatively pessimistic outlook. We show that this paradox manifests an intrinsic inability of modernization to maximize the sustainability potential of SHUE. If the development of regulation is supposed to improve the quality of governance, in our case, it is accompanied by a mechanical increase in coordination costs that hinders the achievement of a sustainable trajectory.

In order to address the interrelated challenges of energy resource depletion, environmental degradation, and public health concerns in the Chinese context in response to sustainable development, we focus on the study of energy, environment, and health policies in China. In Chapter 1, we provide an overview of China's energy, environment, and health policies over the past 20 years to learn about future policy directions that the government has not given sufficient attention. In the following three chapters, we propose a series of empirical studies to draw some useful policy implications. In chapter 2, we study the impact of urbanization, industrial structure adjustment, energy price, and export on aggregate and disaggregated energy intensities of provinces. In Chapter 3, we investigate the factors that explain the energy transition to clean fuels of rural households. In Chapter 4, we examine the joint effects of environmental risks, individual income, health policies on the health status of Chinese adults. In particular, our empirical results suggest integrating urban development into the energy conservation strategy. considering complex substitutions/complementarities among energy sources and between energy and food for rural households. aligning environmental, energy and food policies with health policies.

The purpose of this chapter is thus to review the concept of peak oil, critique its main propositions and assess the arguments advanced by oil optimists against those of peak oil. The paper begins with a presentation of the Hubbert peak theory and of some recent applications of the theory at the global level. Then it introduces a revised conceptual analysis and set of variables with a dynamic analytical framework. The third section assesses the issues behind the polarized debate between the peak community and the oil optimists.

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In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, countries like Germany and Japan have planned a phase-out of nuclear generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has yet to become a commercially viable technology with little prospect of doing so without strong climate policy to spur development. The possibility of using renewable power generation from wind and solar as a non-emitting alternative to replace a nuclear phase-out or failure to deploy CCS technology is investigated using scenarios from EMF27 and the POLES model. A strong carbon price appears necessary to have significant penetration of renewables regardless of alternative generation technologies available, but especially if nuclear or CCS are absent from the energy supply system. The feasibility of replacing nuclear generation appears possible at realistic costs (evaluated as total abatement costs and final user prices to households). however for ambitious climate policies, such as a 450 ppm target, CCS could represent a critical technology that renewables will not be able to fully replace without unbearable economic costs.

This report summarizes the main elements of the different deliverables of the AETIC project in order to present a synthetic vision of the whole approach, the tools used and the results obtained for each sector and at the global scale. The last part proposes an analysis of these results in the framework of the local energy and climate policy as well as a reflection on the approach taken, its operational character and its limits, and the perspectives opened by this research.

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This dissertation deals with water scarcity. Faced with a-historical technical analyses centered on the physical scarcity of water, we develop a social-contingent problematic for which the uses of water are at the heart of the explanation. The first part corresponds to the observation stage. Its objective is to trace the evolution of water use in Almeria (Andalusia) and in Marrakech and Agadir (Morocco) between the end of the 19th century and today. Considered as a field of observation, the mode of water use (Arrus) qualifies the articulation of an "economic" component, relating to the reciprocal adjustment of supply and final uses of the water produced (formalized by norms-procedures) and an "institutional" component, relating to social norms (qualified as norms-rules) presiding over the definition of rights of disposal over water resources. For each of the three fields, this step includes a qualitative field study combined with a historiographical analysis and a textual analysis of planning documents using the Alceste method. This step leads to the formulation of four chronological stylized facts translating the succession of four constituent phases of the life cycle of a particular mode of water use. The second part is theoretical. It corresponds to the stages of characterization and understanding. These two stages are based on the mobilization of a new theoretical grid elaborated by Billaudot on the basis of a connection between the institutionalism of Commons and the sociological institutionalism of the interpretive approach of the economy of conventions (Boltanski and Thévenot). Described as historical and pragmatic institutionalism, this approach is presented as a perspective of deepening the historical institutionalism of regulation theory. It aims to articulate the genesis and function of institutions and leads, in particular, to associate a reference value and a superior good with each of the modes of settlement of Commons transactions. Thus, the particular mode of water use that experienced a regime phase in Spain and Morocco during the second half of the 20th century is described as "hydraulicist". It is characterized by a representation of water essentially as an allocation resource, the abundance of which obtained through engineering-intensive infrastructures is one of the prerogatives of the "modern" state, which also governs its use downstream. The identification of the main characteristics of the "hydraulicist" mode of use leads to the third stage, namely the understanding of the determinants of its entry into crisis from the 1980s onwards. On the one hand, this crisis concerns the end of previous regularities in the reciprocal adjustment of supply and final uses of the water produced: a scarcity of primary resources is noted (this aspect is described as a "regulation crisis"). On the other hand, it corresponds to the questioning of the institutional framework that supports the economic aspect (we note a "crisis of the regime's foundation"). Thus, the norms are partially disqualified by a double process of delocalization in favor of a decentralization of water management. In addition, the unsustainable nature of the previous mode of use leads to the emergence of ecological aspirations concretized by the proposal of new norms of use. The register of ecological socialization for which water is understood as a living environment is reinforced. In the end, we end up identifying a new mode of use currently in force. We show that it does not result from a paradigmatic rupture but corresponds to a "crisis regime".

This thesis discusses the changing organizational and institutional framework of the Russian oil industry during the period 1992-2012. Its objective is to characterize and interpret the increased role of the majority state-owned oil companies, Rosneft and Gazpromneft, in upstream oil operations that has been observed since the mid-2000s. Within this theoretical framework of New Institutional Economics, our thesis argues that the increased role of Russian state-owned oil companies marks a shift from a liberal to a hybrid oil governance structure. This should be interpreted as a feasible response by the federal authorities to the inconsistency between the liberal oil governance structure defined at the beginning of the transition process and the prevailing institutional environment in Russia.

Biomass is expected to represent a growing share of the world's primary energy consumption and the search for the optimization of the use of such a resource, abundant but not plethoric, is essential. This thesis raises the question of the place, in this optimization, of second generation biofuels, by focusing on the thermochemical route, and more particularly on the synthesis of liquid fuels by the Fischer-Tropsch process, which makes it possible to obtain hydrocarbons of the naphtha, kerosene and gas oil type. To address this issue, an evaluation approach is proposed, which includes: - an evaluation on the scale of the processes, applied to a family of about one hundred options, - a systemic approach to assess the insertion of the processes in the future French energy system. The implementation of this evaluation approach shows how : - thermochemical processes for the production of second-generation biofuels can combine biomass and other less limited primary energies to maximize the transfer of renewable carbon from biomass into liquid fuels, but at costs that remain high. - The answer to the question of how to optimize the use of biomass and the place to be given to biofuels depends strongly on the global evolution of the energy system and the feasibility of CO2 storage.

The general idea of the thesis is that the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is an instrument that can facilitate the decarbonization of the European electricity system. However, the conditions must be met in a liberalized context, in terms of risk management, market architecture and the implementation of complementary public policy instruments, for the new carbon price signal to be fully effective. The introduction of liberalization in the electricity industry significantly conditions investment behavior and technological choices. The analysis of the theoretical model of the market demonstrates its organizational inadequacy to adapt to long-term problems due to price signals that are difficult to interpret. The introduction of the EU ETS is superimposed on the market risks inherent to liberalization. The expansion of the carbon market also influences the carbon price anticipated by European investors, as does the interaction between the European emission reduction targets and the targets for increasing renewable electricity by 2020. The use of the POLES forecasting model allows us to examine these various carbon market configurations and to establish possible carbon price scenarios. A number of measures to reduce carbon price volatility are recommended. The modeling exercises using the POLES model also allow for the examination of long-term European technology mixes under carbon price uncertainty. They therefore show that it is possible to have a less emitting electricity production structure in the future. The remaining challenge is to build an organizational and institutional framework that will encourage the necessary investments in the near future.

The purpose of this thesis is to study the relationship between urban form and energy demand for urban mobility. We focus on the urban development dynamics of northern cities to consider the prospects of automobilization in Chinese cities in transition. We endeavor to present the joint evolution of urban forms and transport systems in developed cities. In particular, we show the common dynamics between the consumption of energy and territorial resources. We will see that the cities of the North have different urban forms, depending on the availability of these two resources. China, like other developing countries, is on the threshold of a process of mass motorization. This process is driven by national industrial objectives. We present how, during the 1990s and especially the 2000s, Chinese cities developed around the automobile. In addition to the global energy context, the implementation of an automobile system is subject to strong spatial constraints. However, the urban development model resulting from the economic transition remains extensive. It responds to the growth objectives of local governments and totally neglects the macroeconomic interests of the country. This model of governance does not allow for the preservation of natural resources, and the central government is unable to control the drift away from a harmonious society.

This thesis investigates the steel industry and the ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking) technological responses developed in the face of the "carbon" constraint (taxes, tradable permits) which adds to the industrial challenges and modifies the direction of technical change. Our analysis focuses more specifically on the conditions for the "greening" of innovations, the selection of a new technological sector and the inter-technological competition in an industry particularly prone to lock-in, taking into account the uncertainties of the specific selection environment (evolution of energy, carbon and raw material prices on production costs, steel demand, competition conditions...). The influence of the change in relative prices induced by the simulations of the constraints on the carbon and energy markets is studied from an applied partial equilibrium model. Using several concepts of industrial economics and investment under uncertainty to model the issues of decision, selection, adoption and diffusion of technologies, our thesis opens up new avenues of work by taking into account the expectations of actors and imperfect competition. The methodology developed in this empirical work is potentially applicable to other sectors (paper, cement, aluminum industries...) and provides answers to the theoretical questions identified by the multidisciplinary scientific agenda IHDP-Industrial transformation which solicits the complementary contributions of evolutionary and neoclassical theories of technical change

The first part builds a contextual grid that aims to present the main impacts of development in developing countries. Some development trends such as energy consumption growth, environmental trajectories, economic growth and population growth are analyzed. Then a global analysis of modeling Kuznets environmental curves and development foresight is presented. The second part presents different types of environmental protection policy instruments, as well as the theoretical issues and experiences of their implementation in OECD countries, particularly in the energy sector. It also examines the practices of energy-environment policies and their environmental impacts on the economy, and the role of institutional factors in environmental management in SRAPs. The priorities of environmental management in an integrated approach in the SRAPs are presented and compared with the environmental management experiences of OECD countries. Our case study of the power sector in Vietnam in the third part aims to make an inventory of emissions in a very fast growing sector and the largest emitter of air emissions and to conduct a critical review of environmental policy assessment tools by comparing bottom-up and top-down model-based approaches. Finally, a model and a set of scenarios to assess the economic and environmental consequences of introducing a sectoral policy in the context of an economy in transition are presented.

Since India is facing serious problems in the energy sector and since pricing policy can play an important role in improving the situation, the central question of this work is how to redefine a satisfactory energy pricing policy for India and what the consequences of such a policy will be. A comparison of the economic prices of different products with the market prices shows that the existing policy has negative characteristics. However, the incorporation of redistributive objectives in the energy pricing policy in India may lead to the subsidization of some products. Second, we highlight the need to take into account the environmental issue in India. In the light of the previous analysis, four price hypotheses, the reference case and three other variants, are put forward. The analysis of the consequences is carried out at two levels, sectoral and macro-economic. Our analysis shows the following facts: - energy price reform offers the possibility of controlling the demand for commercial energy. however, such a reform risks encouraging a return to traditional energy. - a price reform has some disadvantages in environmental terms, except for the internalization of external costs. - the increase in energy prices may reduce the gdp and the agricultural sector suffers the maximum reduction. the effect is much less important when the tax revenue is recycled. - the effect on the balance of payments appears to be small. Because of the existence of constraints in the implementation of energy price reform, a medium solution would be more acceptable than an extreme solution. It may also require some institutional changes.

The thesis shows that a strictly economic approach, although important, is not sufficient for managing the external effects of congestion and pollution from urban transport in megacities in developing countries. An integrated approach, which includes policy measures related to urban transport demand management, transport infrastructure development and management, and technology options, is proposed. Two contrasting experiences in rapidly urbanizing Asian countries, such as Bangkok (a relative failure) and Singapore (a success), are used to demonstrate the above proposition. The study also shows that while the measures adopted by an economy could explain the relative success or failure of a given policy, the choice and effectiveness of a measure can only be properly understood by taking into account the institutional context of an economy, in the case of Bangkok and Singapore.