Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in France.

Summary The DDPP France report assesses two contrasting decarbonization trajectories for France by 2050, one based on an ambitious reduction in energy demand, the other on a strong decarbonization of energy. The first trajectory is based on a 50% reduction in final energy consumption by 2050, the flagship objective of the recent law on Energy Transition for Green Growth. However, there are many obstacles to achieving such a goal, particularly for the effective implementation of a vast energy efficiency program and for making the necessary shifts in transportation. If climate policies fail to achieve such an energy demand reduction target, additional decarbonized energy potentials would have to be mobilized. This is not without its challenges, such as the deployment of 3rd generation nuclear power plants, carbon capture and sequestration technology or the large-scale development of biomass energy. The report analyzes the sectoral policies to be implemented and their obstacles, and conducts an economic evaluation of these two trajectories. Taking into account the uncertainties specific to each of these trajectories, the report shows that a strategy based on a strong reduction in demand is more robust than a strategy that favors the decarbonization of energy supply: by reducing the need for decarbonized energy, it leaves more room for maneuver in the event that demand reduction policies fail. Finally, even if the decarbonization of the economy generates growth and employment in the medium term, adjustment costs appear in the short term, which can hinder any political decision in this area. Proposals are made to reduce these adjustment costs and thus promote the rapid triggering of the energy transition.