Scenarios for decarbonization of the power sector in Vietnam.

Summary The issue of reducing CO2 emissions is now clearly posed worldwide and the COP21 has highlighted the new international requirements that countries could or should face in the short term. The fundamental objective of the thesis is to contribute to the identification of possible solutions in the field of increasing electricity production in a developing country, Vietnam, taking into account the necessary reduction of carbon-based energy sources. To this end, several scenarios concerning the development of the electricity sector in Vietnam are constructed in order to measure the effects of the choices relating to the production of electricity on CO2 emissions. After having presented an overview of the energy situation in Vietnam and highlighted the rapid increase in electricity consumption due to demographic pressure and the expression of new needs, the question of coal and gas imports and that of the production of new forms of energy are posed, with regard to the economic constraints, but also environmental. Theoretical reflections, the study of the construction of electricity master plans, the analysis of available economic tools and the application of energy demand forecasting models allow us to understand the complexity of the "electricity gamble" facing Vietnam. After a presentation of potential quantitative simulation tools, ELECsim was chosen for the modeling of the electricity sector in Vietnam. The scenarios are based on several assumptions regarding the evolution of economic growth and demographics, energy prices, the development of power generation technologies, the reported value of carbon, discount rates and exchange rates. Vietnam can first control demand growth through strong action on energy efficiency, while simultaneously reducing both electricity production costs and CO2 emissions. Several scenarios are then proposed, highlighting both the need for greater energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon energies, in the context of a rapid reorientation of policy choices in the face of the needs of accelerated but also sustainable economic development. Six scenarios have been built, based on a reference scenario, successively insisting on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS technology, renewable energies and a more balanced electricity mix. The global environmental constraint (reduction of CO2 emissions) is a priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country that is currently more concerned with the cost of supply. The scenarios analyzed in the thesis take into account the reduction of the carbon intensity of the Vietnamese power sector. It is then proposed, as a threshold for the benchmark, the emission level of 50 to 80 g/kWh (chosen from the thresholds studied by two Asian economies neighboring Vietnam such as Indonesia and India). The different power generation mixes proposed seem to offer relevant solutions. They allow us to meet the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of Vietnam's electricity sector. The analysis takes into account the growing pressure of demand, the security of fuel supply with alternative choices, the reduction of total costs of high power generation, the control of the external bill, the consideration of the social impact (especially on the health of citizens) and land use, and finally, the respect of the standards related to the protection of the regional, national and global environment