MAZIER Jacques

The thesis studies the functioning of the "originate-to-distribute" banking activity, associated with the "shadow banking system" and its impacts on households. We use a post-Keynesian and circuitist theoretical framework, applying the endogenous money approach to credit. In order to formalize the "originate-to-distribute" banking activity in an aggregate framework, we analyze, in an accounting framework, the necessities surrounding the acquisition of claims by non-bank financial actors. We highlight the need for bank support to inflate the balance sheets of financial actors involved in the hosting of bank claims outside the banks' balance sheets, prior to the financial closure of these claims through the channeling of household savings. We translate the functioning of the originate-to-distribute banking activity into a theoretical macroeconomic model of growth, stock-flow consistent, in a closed economy. The model is characterized by two subsectors of households, workers and capitalists, differentiated by their sources of income and wealth behavior. We take into account the housing debt of households and a housing market. We analyze the differential impact of debt transfers from the banking sector to a non-banking financial sector on the income, wealth and debt of the household classes.

The chapter assesses the European integration process from the early blocking of the EMS. Intra-European exchange rate misalignments are estimated with the FEER approach given that these misalignments have been a key issue at the time of the EMS and within the monetary union. The main drawbacks of the European economic policy are underlined from the Single Market programme in the 1980s to the launching of the single currency. The settlement of a monetary union between heterogeneous countries with no adjustment mechanism (no fiscal federalism, no political agreement to allow the ECB to guarantee the national public debts), except competitive wage deflation, could only lead to divergent evolutions. The single currency trap post 2008 is analysed. Reforms have been adopted in emergency to avoid a break-up (European Stability Mechanism, OMT, QE) but remain unfinished (Banking Union) or maladjusted (Fiscal Treaty). The way of adjusting internal imbalances is still asymmetrical. Deficit countries are obliged to adjust whereas surplus countries are not. Wage deflation and restrictive policies have replaced competitive devaluations. With the incoherence of the euro zone regime, the question of its sustainability is raised.

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The chapter analyses in two ways the alternative economic policies that are put forward to overcome the blockages of the euro area. First, the consistency of the different alternatives is discussed. second, a two-country SFC model of the monetary union is used to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of these alternatives. Several typical alternative structures have been suggested: reaffirmation of the no-bail-out clause for the national governments, fiscal federalism, eurobonds, creation of a Euro Treasury. These alternatives, and other more pragmatic ones, raise many problems and are, in many cases, hardly realistic in political terms. According to the simulations of the SFC model, the stabilisation effects advocated by the ‘international risk-sharing approach’ are weak or even nonexistent in some cases. When interest rates increase due to credit rationing, a cumulative slowdown can emerge. On the contrary a federal budget, even if small but with federal transfers, can have an efficient stabilising role. Large European investments projects financed by eurobonds are also a powerful instrument. The mutualisation of public national debts with eurobonds or the enlargement of financial support by northern countries can contribute to stabilisation, but in a limited way. On the whole, the alternative economic policies are whether unlikely (federal budget, eurobonds), or hardly feasible (European investments) or have only a limited impact (eurobonds, northern financial support). The risk of a status quo is high.

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It is essential to study nonlinear dynamics in mathematics and allows us to interpret such irregular and unpredictable phenomena as a result of deterministic processes, not just statistical errors or chances.System dynamics is a methodology as well as a method to implement nonlinear dynamic movements. Through these two methods, we capture the crisis in business cycles and test capital accumulation, and technical changes in the Macro Stock Management model and apply them to the South Korean economy. Various time series analysis tools are used to estimate the effects of investment on profit rates and the effects of wage inequality and consumer debt on domestic demand since the 2008 global financial crisis. The Structural Vector Auto-Regressive model imposes long-run or short-run restrictions on the VAR system, it uses to distinguish two variables with similar characteristics. Perron (1989) argues that traditional unit root tests such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test are likely to fail to detect stationarity or non-stationarity in data if they have structural breaks. Zivot and Andrews(1992) and Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) propose the unit root test model with endogenous structural breaks. The Gregory-Hansen test provides information about a structural break in a co-integration test. The ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lags) model is used to capture long-term relationships between variables.

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The euro crisis sheds light on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a heterogeneous monetary union. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, it remains very few efficient alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole eurozone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro remains overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially for Germany. This paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone thanks to a FEER approach. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds. Overvaluations amount to negative competitiveness shocks in Southern countries. In this respect, three main results are found. Firstly, an increase of intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribute to reduce the debt burden and induce a partial recovery but public debt would increase. Secondly, the implementation of Eurobonds as a tool to partially mutualize European sovereign debt would have a rather similar positive impact with a public debt limited to 70 percent of GDP. Thirdly, Eurobonds could also be used to finance large European projects which could impulse a stronger recovery in the entire zone with stabilized current account balances.

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In a monetary union, such as the euro zone, adjustments to asymmetric developments are more difficult because of the fixity of intra-European exchange rates, as illustrated by the current crisis in southern European countries. An approach based on a "stock-flow consistent" model (SFC) with two asymmetrically sized countries in a monetary union, inspired by the work of Godley and Lavoie [2007], is proposed. Using this model, we simulate a loss of competitiveness in the south of the zone. Five variants are analyzed: fiscal restraint in the South, fiscal expansion in the South, fiscal expansion in the North, fiscal expansion in the whole zone and fiscal expansion in the whole zone with intervention of the European Central Bank (ECB). Several results emerge and illustrate the mechanisms at work in the crisis in southern European countries. The implementation of a restrictive fiscal policy in the South has reduced public debt and interest rates, but at the cost of weaker growth. The effect of a demand-driven stimulus policy in the South is effective on growth in the short term, but has the disadvantage in the medium term of sharply increasing interest rates, plunging the economy into recession. In order to avoid an explosion in interest rates in the south without jeopardizing growth, only a stimulus policy in the north would allow both a boost to production and a reduction in intra-eurozone imbalances. Finally, a stimulus policy for the entire zone is effective for growth while limiting the rise in interest rates, provided that the ECB becomes less independent of the States.

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The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the short-run effects of the functional distribution of income on aggregate demand and its components in South Korea, Thailand and China in a post-Keynesian framework. For this purpose, a model is proposed and its parameters are estimated to characterize the demand growth patterns in these countries. The econometric analysis shows that domestic demand in these countries is driven by wages, except for Thailand where some measures of income distribution indicate that the domestic economy is driven by profits, while open economies are driven by profits. The results describe that pro-labor growth policies are not sustainable in the short run in these countries. This thesis includes a review of the literature on income distribution and growth theories, presents a review of the literature on empirical work on post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, outlines a theoretical model, and includes an analysis of the demand growth regime in South Korea, Thailand, and China, respectively. Finally, the thesis discusses the shortcomings of the model, summarizes its results and arrives at policy conclusions implied by the model.

The euro crisis shed lights on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, it remains very few efficient alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole eurozone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro is strongly overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially Germany. This paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone, using a FEER approach, and examines the evolution of competitiveness. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds issuance. Three main results are found. Firstly, facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to exchange rates misalignments, increasing intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribute to reduce the debt burden and induce a partial recovery but public debt would increase. Secondly, the implementation of Eurobonds as a tool to partially mutualize European sovereign debt would have a rather similar positive impact, but with a public debt limited to 70 percent of GDP. Finally, Eurobonds could also be used to finance large European projects which could impulse a stronger recovery in the entire zone with stabilized current account imbalances. However, the creation of a European institution in charge of the issuance of the Eurobonds would face strong political obstacles.

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The ASEAN countries have experimented contrasted exchange rate regimes since the 1990s. The Asian crisis of 1997 has shown the limits of a simple dollar-peg policy without formal institutions. During the 2000s much effort has been devoted to improving monetary and financial cooperation at the regional level, especially with the Chiang Mai initiative and the Asian Bond market. But results have been limited, mainly due to political issues with the underlying competition between China and Japan. The financial crisis of 2008 has given new interest to the question of monetary cooperation at the regional level. Due to the high degree of heterogeneity of East Asian countries, it appears necessary to preserve the possibility of exchange rate adjustments in a future exchange rate regime. Various forms of monetary regime have been proposed from the Asian Currency Unit (ACU) to the common currency basket or the yen block or the yuan block in a long-term perspective, with improvement at the level of institutional forms, such as an Asian Monetary Fund and Asian bond markets. However obstacles remain the same with a lack of political project and the will of China to preserve its autonomy. A long transition period with adjustable exchange rates regime, based on different types of institutions, might be the more likely, before, may be in the long term, the settlement of a yuan block, which does not mean a yuan zone.

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The objective of this thesis is to study the growth and economic development of emerging countries through Foreign Direct Investment. Emerging countries adopt strategies to attract FDI, which then promotes the assimilation of the technological transfers they carry. These strategies are based on several points: increased regulation, establishment of a system of good governance, strengthening of macroeconomic stability, and development of infrastructure and human capital. We focus on MENA countries that have recently undergone profound political and social changes. These are countries that Western Europe would benefit from accompanying, to ensure the success of this transitional phase. This is why we take the example of the CEEC countries after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Western European countries after the Second World War. From the 1980s onward, following the collapse of oil prices, which had major consequences on their fragile economies, MENA countries tried to diversify their economies. In the first chapter, we show the nature of the channels through which the effects of FDI on the growth of emerging countries are realized. According to recent theories of economic growth, the policies of attracting FDI carried out by emerging countries constitute a driving force for growth, as long as these countries possess human capital capable of absorbing the technologies and know-how conveyed by FDI. In the second chapter, we use various empirical methods to establish the determinants of FDI. Using regional comparisons, we focus, in particular, on the short-term institutional determinants. Based on a gravity model in the third and fourth chapters, we then highlight the key determinants of FDI in Central and Eastern European countries (CEE), as well as possible differences in the behavior of foreign investors towards the former EU-15 and the CEE countries, ten years after the enlargement of the European Community. We thus show a shift both in the geographical orientation of investors and in their motivations. We therefore do not observe a convergence of the determinants of the CEECs towards those of the EU-15. On the other hand, the effect of tax competition tends to spread in the strategies of firms from the CEEC to the whole of the European Union. This coincides with the onset of the crisis, which has led to greater volatility in FDI flows. In the fifth chapter, we analyze the long-term institutional determinants of FDI in the MENA region. We highlight a range of institutional indicators to identify their relative importance on FDI flows after controlling for macroeconomic determinants. We take into account the effects of economic downturns, mainly due to recessions and economic crises. Our results indicate that institutional indicators are positively related to FDI. Finally, in the sixth chapter, and for the same region, we examine the relationship between economic growth, FDI, exports, labor force and capital investment. As this relationship remains one of the most important issues in the economic literature, it is receiving renewed interest, mainly for MENA countries, which suffer from social, economic, and technological problems. Using the ARDL approach, we finally show that there is a cointegration relationship between these variables, both in the long run and in the short run.

The central idea of our analysis of the French economy concerns the supremacy of interest rates and public spending as instruments of economic policy. With the sharp rise in interest rates in the early 1980s, non-financial firms began to demand less credit, while French households, as well as other developing economies, demanded more. In parallel with these developments, speculative markets dominated the stock market, unemployment rates rose, and a process of liberalization followed. We analyze the consequences of this financialization process and some possible scenarios in France, while using a Cowles Commission type model, which is in turn based on the stock-flow literature. Particular attention is given to distributional and fiscal variables. The results of the model indicate that (given that French firms are caught in a liquidity trap) the interest rate has lost its power as a policy variable. In contrast, government spending has significant expansionary power.

The thesis studies China's cost and non-cost competitiveness and its impacts on the rest of the world between 1970 and 2012. In the beginning, China's trade performance was based on cost competitiveness. Since the 1990s, its cost advantage has declined, especially compared to Thailand and India. On the other hand, its non-cost advantage, as measured by structural change, has been accompanied by an increase in the contribution of imported inputs to exports. This indicates, first, that China's dependence on the rest of the world has increased and, second, that China's exports have driven more exports from the rest of the world than before. Among these exporters, Asian countries are still the biggest beneficiaries of China's export expansion.

The objective of this thesis is to study global imbalances with an empirical stock-flow consistent multinational model. The last financial crisis of 2008, which was followed by a global economic crisis, reconfigured the evolution of many macroeconomic variables. Global imbalances have been reduced significantly and the continuation of this adjustment is mainly due to cyclical macroeconomic factors, because of the collapse of demand. Given the major changes in recent years, our research examines the prospects for future growth in the United States, China and Europe under current economic policies to 2030. To do so, we first use the C.A.M. model developed by F. Cripps, and then we estimate our own multinational model with five regions. The analysis focuses on the evolution of global imbalances, economic growth and the exchange rate. The projections of the base scenario of our multinational model, in the case of the continuation of the current policies, show that the adjustment of external imbalances is maintained at the cost of internal imbalances.

Based on the hypothesis that states that the underlying cause of the crisis in the euro area is a combination of exchange-rate misalignments with uncoordinated wage policies, we explore different exchange-rate arrangements that may help to reduce imbalances between surplus and deficit countries. These alternative configurations of the eurozone, which imply abandoning the common currency to a greater or a lesser extent, are tested with a theoretical four-country stock-flow consistent model. We find that although the different alternatives of a multi-speed Europe vary in their stability and macroeconomic effects, in all cases they produce better results compared to the one that has been observed since the introduction of the euro.

This thesis presents a series of theoretical studies sharing a common methodology: the use of consistent stock-flow models. Based on the failure of the traditional economic analysis tool, DSGE models, I attempt to show what are the main drawbacks of these models, which include both methodological problems and the omission of some crucial aspects of reality (e.g. the role of money and financial markets). In the first chapter of this thesis I show why consistent stock-flow models offer a more accurate vehicle for understanding modern economies. These reasons, which are related to a higher concern with realism, accounting accuracy, and the interaction between different economic agents and social institutions, explain why consistent stock-flow models were successful in detecting the instabilities that were building up in the years before the outbreak of the global financial crisis. After explaining the motivation for studying macroeconomic dynamics through coherent stock-flow models I present three chapters in which these models are adapted to the study of some specific real-world problems, which have been and still are relevant and have a privileged place in the political agenda. In the second chapter, I study some of the different alternatives for the reform of the international monetary system that have been proposed since the end of the Second World War. Starting with a model that describes the current state of affairs, it is shown how this model can be modified in order to examine how each of the alternative solutions might work. These solutions include options that have been widely debated for decades, such as the introduction of the SDR (the currency issued by the IMF) and the bancor (the international currency that Keynes proposed, with the creation of an international clearing house). After building the models, simulation exercises are conducted. These experiments show how each solution could provide a better global environment for the development of international economic relations. In particular, it is found that the establishment of a clearing house as Keynes proposed would not only be beneficial in reducing global imbalances, but also it could produce a high level of effective demand in a global scale.

Using a stock-flow consistent (sfc) model, we study the extent of intra-area bank financing in credit and government securities purchases. Several results emerge. The use of intra-area credit has no specific stabilizing role in the case where the central bank is lender of last resort. Concerning government financing, we introduce in the model the possibility of bank rationing by interest rates on government securities. The rise in rates contributes to a cumulative slowdown. In this context, the use of intra-zone financing (European Stability Mechanism, bank financing or central bank intervention) can play a stabilizing role, provided that it is not accompanied by fiscal austerity plans. These results illustrate the mechanisms at work in the crisis in southern European countries.

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The financialized growth rate that settled in most developed economies in the nineties is characterized by the quest for higher shareholders’ profitability, increased financial accumulation at the expense of productive accumulation and the use of leverage effects. Stock Flow Consistent models à la Godley and Lavoie are well suited to analyze this growth regime. We retain two types of closures for non financial companies, either an indebtedness norm or an own funds norm. The paper studies the dynamics of these two models with the aid of simulations and supply or demand shocks, or stemming from the financial sector. Their fitness to take into account financial cycles and over indebtedness typical of financialized growth may thus be analyzed. The model with the indebtedness norm generates short-term financial cycles which appear as the regulation mode of this growth regime with an asset price serving as an adjustment variable. The model with the own funds norm generates a financial bubble with growing indebtedness and no self-stabilizing mechanism. El régimen de crecimiento financiarizado que se ha instalado en la mayoría de las economías desarrolladas a partir de los años 1990 se caracteriza por la búsqueda de una rentabilidad elevada para los accionistas, una acumulación financiera acrecentada en detrimento de la acumulación productiva y el recurso al efecto palanca. Los modelos de Stock-Flujo Consistente (SFC) según Godley y Lavoie están bien adaptados para dar cuenta de este régimen de crecimiento. Dos tipos de cierre de esos modelos se distinguen haciendo referencia al nivel de las empresas no financieras, sea una norma de endeudamiento, sea una norma de fondos propios. Este artículo estudia la dinámica de esos dos tipos de modelo, con la ayuda de un modelo de simulación y de shocks de oferta o de demanda o al nivel de la esfera financiera. Su aptitud para dar cuenta de los ciclos financieros y de sobreendeudamiento característicos del crecimiento financiarizado puede entonces ser analizado. El modelo con norma de endeudamiento genera ciclos financieros de corto periodo que aparecen como el modo de regulación de este régimen de crecimiento con un precio de las acciones que sirve de variable de ajuste.

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The euro zone crisis illustrates the deficiencies of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, they are very few alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole euro zone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro is strongly overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially Germany. The paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the euro zone, using a FEER approach, and examines the evolution of competitiveness. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and eurobonds issuance. Three main results are obtained. Facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to exchange rates misalignments, increasing intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribute to reduce the debt burden and induce a partial recovery but public debt would increase. Implementation of eurobonds as a tool to partly mutualize European sovereign debt would have a rather similar positive impact, but with a public debt limited to 60% of GDP. Furthermore, eurobonds could also be used to finance large European projects which could impulse a stronger recovery in the entire euro zone with stabilized current account imbalances. However, the settlement of a European Debt Agency in charge of the issuance of the eurobonds would face strong political obstacles.

With the return of financial cycles and the subprime crisis, the literature has re-emphasized the macroeconomic influence of financial factors. Starting with the credit market, it has essentially developed with the financial gas pedal theory (Bernanke and Gertler [1989], Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist [1999]) based on the hypothesis of asymmetric information. This thesis proposes to complete this literature by considering the case in which the supply of credit is expressed in a situation of radical uncertainty and to revisit this theory by proposing, based on some of its limitations, another financial acceleration mechanism that is more macroeconomic in nature. This mechanism then allows us to improve our understanding of the role of the credit market in explaining economic fluctuations and to reinterpret economic policy recommendations.

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The financialized growth rate that settled in most developed economies in the nineties is characterized by the quest for higher shareholders’ profitability, increased financial accumulation at the expense of productive accumulation and the use of leverage effects. Stock Flow Consistent models à la Godley and Lavoie are well suited to analyze this growth regime. We retain two types of closures for non financial companies, either an indebtedness norm or an own funds norm. The paper studies the dynamics of these two models with the aid of simulations and supply or demand shocks, or stemming from the financial sector. Their fitness to take into account financial cycles and over indebtedness typical of financialized growth may thus be analyzed. The model with the indebtedness norm generates short-term financial cycles which appear as the regulation mode of this growth regime with an asset price serving as an adjustment variable. The model with the own funds norm generates a financial bubble with growing indebtedness and no self-stabilizing mechanism.

Globalization does not wait. International relations of all kinds have multiplied over the past thirty years with the liberalization of trade, the reduction of transport costs and new information and communication technologies. The book analyzes the reform of monetary and financial systems, already at the heart of the agenda, but also the regulation of trade, an area where there is a lack of direction and where strong priorities such as the ecological transition are slow to take hold. Liberating the future requires that developed countries get out of a double lock-in. The first is that of their companies, prisoners of a financialization that leads them to favor short-term profits, and the second is that of their heavily indebted governments, which, like Moliere's doctors, only swear by austerity. The world is too integrated for the emerging countries to take over alone. It is imperative to find a world arrangement that liberates both. It is to explore these paths that this book sets out.

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The literature on exchange rate misalignments is very extensive as well as the literature on exchange rate determinants. To our knowledge, however, no study has analyzed the determinants of exchange rate misalignments. As huge capital inflows have been pouring into emerging countries since the climax of the crisis, exchange rate misalignments are becoming a crucial issue for policy makers. For a large panel of emerging and industrialized countries and on the period 1982-2008, we identify, empirically, the main determinants of exchange rate misalignments obtained thanks to a FEER approach (Williamson, 1994). Our analysis put forward trade openness, financial openness and regional specialization as determinant variables of exchange rate misalignments.

The literature on exchange rate misalignments is very extensive as well as the literature on exchange rate determinants. To our knowledge, however, no study has analyzed the determinants of exchange rate misalignments. As huge capital inflows have been pouring into emerging countries since the climax of the crisis, exchange rate misalignments are becoming a crucial issue for policy makers. For a large panel of emerging and industrialized countries and on the period 1982-2008, we identify, empirically, the main determinants of exchange rate misalignments obtained thanks to a FEER approach (Williamson, 1994). Our analysis put forward trade openness, financial openness and regional specialization as determinant variables of exchange rate misalignments.

The crisis in the euro zone illustrates the shortcomings of the adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by strong heterogeneity. This situation reflects a simple diagnosis. At the level of the zone as a whole, the euro is close to its equilibrium rate. But the euro is strongly overvalued for southern European countries, including France, and largely undervalued for northern European countries, especially Germany (Jeong et al., 2010). First, this article provides an assessment of these exchange rate misalignments within the euro area, using a FEER approach. Furthermore, using panel data over the period 1994-2010, we confirm that exchange rate misalignments have diverged, reflecting unsustainable developments. Finally, we estimate the cost increases or reductions as a percentage of GDP induced by these misalignments for the different European countries. In a second step, we use a two-country "stock-flow consistent" modeling of a monetary union in the tradition of Godley and Lavoie (2007) and Duwicquet and Mazier (2010). A federal budget is introduced with federal spending and social transfers financed by federal taxes and the issuance of Eurobonds. The stabilizing role of such a federal budget is confirmed in the face of asymmetric shocks within the union. At the same time, the stabilizing role of Eurobonds for investment projects is illustrated.

This study deals with the link between exchange rate misalignments (ERM) and economic growth, for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies on the period 1982-2010. The estimation of equilibrium exchange rate (EER) is based on a FEER approach. The relation "misalignments-growth" is estimated using a PSTR (Panel Smooth Transition Regression) and GMM models. Our main results show that the impact of ERM on economic growth is nonlinear and asymmetric. An overvaluation has a negative impact on growth while an undervaluation sustains growth until an estimated threshold (15.5% for emerging countries and 9% for developed countries). The coefficient is weaker for emerging countries (0.02) than for developed countries (0.08). Due to non linearity and coefficient's value, the undervaluation has a positive effect on growth even beyond the threshold. We also demonstrate that the impact of ERM on growth is positive only in the case of small undervaluation for emerging countries. However, concerning developed countries, the undervaluation have a positive effect on growth even beyond the estimated threshold.

The diversity in the eurozone has costs and advantages, respectively, for countries whether they are confronted with an overvalued or undervalued euro. Rough estimations of these costs and benefits help to assess the adjustments that could lead to a sustainable eurozone. A purely financial type of federalism, set up under the pressure of financial markets, risks falling short of the objective. A budgetary federalism, if it is based on long-term investment programmes with an enlarged political support, is more likely to meet the objective. A scheme of multispeed Europe could constitute a fallback solution if the political support for a budgetary federalism is not attained.

The aim of this thesis is to show that Marx and Keynes, through distinct analyses, arrive at the same conclusion, which still makes sense today: the ultimate cause of the crisis lies in excessive competition. The first part of this work deals with the period from Ricardo to Marx. In the first chapter, Ricardo's model and the criticisms that accompanied it are presented. Among his detractors is Marx, whose second chapter shows that his theory can be read as calling for protectionism as soon as his analysis is placed in the context of the survival of capitalism. The second part justifies the existence and demonstrates the validity of Keynesian protectionism. The third chapter establishes Keynes's discovery of the need to propose a safeguarding protectionism and shows that this conclusion has been largely lost sight of in interpretations of his thought. Finally, the fourth chapter, through a circuitist reading of Keynes, warns against the perverse effects of free trade on the two essential components of demand, namely consumption and especially investment.

This thesis aims to examine the characteristics of the informal economy (informal sector and employment) and its role in generating employment and income for rural workers. The focus is on the case of the Red River Delta (RRD), Vietnam's most populous region, in the context of the country's economic integration process. Unlike most existing studies, we examine the informal economy not only in urban areas, but also in rural areas, with the comparison between the two being the focus of the thesis. After a review of the literature on the subject in developing countries, countries in transition and Vietnam, an empirical analysis of the characteristics and dynamics of the informal sector in rural and urban areas in the DFR is proposed from two angles, macro and micro. During the period of economic integration, we find that this region is marked by the most considerable changes in the labor market, with a decline in the share of agricultural employment, which is accompanied by a significant increase in employment in non-farm family enterprises, particularly in the informal sector. The comparative analysis of the informal sector between rural and urban areas shows that the informal sector is not only the urban phenomenon long emphasized by researchers. It is also crucial in rural areas, especially in the particular DFR region. The role of the informal economy in generating employment and income for rural workers is studied along two lines: first, through analyses aimed at highlighting the earnings differentials between agricultural and non-agricultural informal jobs; and second, through the study of the determinants of sectoral allocation (formal/informal) and income of rural migrants in the urban labor market. These questions are addressed by mobilizing different individual databases (notably panel data). The results show that rural workers can earn more when they engage in non-agricultural activities instead of only in agriculture, but this is not always true for all types of non-agricultural jobs. In many cases, non-farm jobs (such as informal wage jobs and even formal wage jobs in the upper income quintiles) do not pay as well as the equivalent farm jobs. Women always earn less when they have non-farm jobs, especially when they are informally employed. When migrating to urban areas, rural workers engage primarily in informal employment. Being an informal worker in the city is significantly correlated with the intention to look for another job, indicating a form of dissatisfaction with the type of employment. Furthermore, the results of the earnings equations suggest a general disadvantage to informal workers in the urban labor market in the LLDC provinces, regardless of their migration status. However, among all workers who migrate to urban centers, informal workers from rural areas suffer the worst working conditions.

In a context of increasing openness of economies, it is relevant to question the optimal choice of exchange rate regime for emerging countries. Our empirical study of the relationship between the exchange rate regime and growth has led us to conclude that there is no univocal link between the exchange rate regime and growth. More precisely, there would be no better exchange rate regime in all places and at all times. At the end of these reflections, it appeared that an appropriate level of exchange rate accompanied by the choice of an adequate exchange rate regime are consubstantial to better economic performance. To this end, after estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate based on a FEER model, we conducted a non-linear econometric analysis of the effects of exchange rate misalignments on growth. We found that this effect depends on the nature and size of the exchange rate misalignment. For emerging countries, the effect on growth is positive for small undervaluations and negative for large ones. In contrast, for advanced countries, undervaluation has a positive effect even beyond the estimated threshold. Overvaluations of the exchange rate have negative effects on growth. This asymmetric impact of exchange rate misalignments on growth highlights the importance of exchange rate policy on growth. Appropriate exchange rate policies that limit currency overvaluation could be used to promote economic growth.

This study is an attempt to model international financial imbalances by taking into account the role played by oil-producing countries. In order to answer our problematic and to well define our subject, several complementary methods of modeling are used: The modeling of oil prices in "VECM", The modeling of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates "FFER", The modeling of financial imbalances with a theoretical model in Stock Flow Coherent "SFC", and with a model of world economy "Cambridge Alphametrics Model". Our thesis is composed of five chapters: Chapter 1 is an introduction, it deals with the problem of imbalances in the world economy and the role played by oil-producing countries in the formation of these imbalances. Chapter 2 is an analysis of the determinants of oil prices, which are increasing and highly volatile. Chapter 3, focuses on the exchange rates of oil exporting countries, and we have estimated the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for these economies. Chapter 4, is an SFC model of payment imbalances between nations. Chapter 5 is a world economy model (CAM) using real data.

Since the mid-1990s, there has been a global increase in current account imbalances. In 2007, before the onset of the financial crisis, they represented more than 2% of global GDP in absolute terms. At the global level, the persistence of large imbalances is a threat to macroeconomic and macro-financial stability. This thesis analyzes this phenomenon of global imbalances using two complementary approaches: equilibrium exchange rates and consistent stock-flow models. These two approaches can be considered complementary in that they analyze the same problem from a different point of view. Equilibrium exchange rate approaches, and more particularly the FEER approach introduced by Williamson (1994), seek to calculate the exchange rate variations necessary to achieve a sustainable current account balance. Stock-flow coherent approaches like Godley-Lavoie (2007) seek to analyze adjustments in terms of activity levels and exchange rate dynamics, starting from a situation of current account imbalances. A return of large imbalances cannot be ruled out. It appears that international monetary cooperation aimed at preventing the return of imbalances at the international and intra-European level is a necessary condition for the global recovery.

This thesis examines the determinants of divergent trade performance within the euro zone through four empirical studies. The first study examines the impact of specializations on export performance, using a dynamic study of comparative advantages and a constant market share analysis. The second introduces an extended measure of structural competitiveness into the modeling of traditional export equations through the study of a composite competitiveness indicator. The third part studies the link between foreign direct investment and trade performance in the Eurozone countries through heterogeneous panel causality tests and gravity equations. Finally, the last part of this thesis looks at the internationalization strategies of production and their consequences on the trade performance of countries through the study of the behavior of European car manufacturers. Germany's better performance is not only due to its cost competitiveness. Increased product innovation, infrastructure, a policy of reducing costs for its companies through privileged access to credit and an advantageous tax policy, combined with increased fragmentation of its production, explain its "outperformance" on the world market. On the contrary, French companies have suffered from rising labor costs in the country, but also from the lack of innovation in their products and from their strategies of total relocation of production.

This thesis focuses on the challenge of price level catch-up for macroeconomic stability in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe, in view of their future participation in the euro area. In this respect, a model of the equilibrium real exchange rate suggests that the real appreciation linked to economic catching-up conceals different relative price evolutions according to the exchange rate regimes, which are reflected in contrasting external debt trajectories. In flexible exchange rate economies, the rise in the nominal exchange rate favors an endogenous appreciation of the terms of trade in the medium term, by directing foreign direct investment and the realization of productivity gains towards the exposed sector of the economy, which translates into an appreciation of the equilibrium real exchange rate and an improvement in the external accounts. In fixed exchange rate economies, the valuation effects of higher relative domestic prices tend to shift investment to the sheltered sector of the economy, leading to an erosion of external competitiveness, as evidenced by the rise in external debt. Moreover, monetary integration entails specific risks for the macroeconomic stability of catching-up economies, insofar as it is accompanied by a marked process of convergence of financing conditions between member states, as soon as the prospect of joining the common monetary area becomes credible. A dynamic rational expectations model shows that, in the face of the demand shock linked to such financial convergence, the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate proves crucial in limiting the overheating of the economy. Conversely, in economies with a fixed exchange rate, the lowering of country risk premia is likely to provoke a rise in external debt, followed by deflationary chains once in the monetary union.

This thesis proposes to study the issues associated with the choice of an industrialization strategy for Vietnam in this new global economic environment. The thesis consists of three parts. The first part focuses on the debate about the import substitution and export-oriented industrialization strategies of Asian countries. It reviews the different theoretical currents in order to shed light on the subject, to highlight the advances as well as the limitations of Asian industrialization models and the lessons learned for Vietnam. The second part analyzes Vietnam's investment policy, from the impact of foreign direct investment and international integration on trade to the causal relationship between investment, export and import in Vietnam. The conclusions in this part are drawn from time series analysis and the construction of a gravity model for trade. The last part discusses Vietnam's international competitiveness problem as well as China's competition for Vietnamese goods in the international and domestic market. The overall conclusion summarizes the progress of Vietnam's industrialization process as well as the challenges Vietnam faces in moving towards sustainable development.

Global macroeconomic adjustments are analyzed first through the stylized facts and causes of global imbalances and then using a three-country "stock-flow consistent" model in the tradition of Godley and Lavoie (2007) and Zhao and Lavoie (2010). Three models are considered. The first one, with fixed prices, three zones with a debt in domestic currency, with a fixed dollar-yuan parity, but which can also include a diversification behavior of the Chinese Central Bank and a flexible dollar-yuan parity according to a pure floating regime or a more administered regime. The second is a generalization of the previous one with flexible prices instead of fixed prices. The third, with fixed prices, with four zones and with the rest of the world's debt in dollars, includes a peg of the rest of the world's currency and the yuan to the dollar and three pegging scenarios to a basket of currencies. In the face of shocks, the fixity of the yuan-dollar parity limits the reduction of global imbalances to China's benefit. A diversification of Chinese foreign exchange reserves modifies the nature of the adjustments, especially to the detriment of the euro zone because of the resulting depreciation of the dollar. The flexibility of the dollar-yuan parity, on the other hand, appears to be an effective means of reducing imbalances in all three models. While a pure floating of the yuan seems unrealistic in the current context, a more managed exchange rate regime for the yuan-dollar parity produces fairly similar adjustment mechanisms. Finally, the model with flexible prices confirms the main results obtained previously.

Risk-sharing should make it possible to absorb asymmetric shocks within a monetary zone. Three channels of adjustment can be used: public transfers, credits and financial income between regions/countries. The literature highlights the current weakness of this mechanism in Europe, while it generally tends to attribute a major role to it in the United States. In this paper, we show that for the United States the financial channel is generally overestimated. These results lead us to reassess the role of the federal budget. We complete our analysis with a two-country stock-flow consistent model (SFC) in a monetary union, inspired by the work of Godley and Lavoie (2007). The stabilization effects of financial integration appear weaker than the diffusion effects. We also study the effects of bank rationing on firms and governments. If external financing is accompanied by fiscal austerity plans, the adjustment to an asymmetric shock is inefficient. Finally, stabilization through financial integration is limited and cannot by itself fill the policy vacuum of the eurozone, which is an incomplete monetary union without fiscal mechanisms between countries. This situation accentuates the imbalances between northern and southern countries and calls into question the viability of the euro zone.

The Lao PDR, a Least Developed Country with a complex historical heritage, is adopting socialism to rapidly develop its economy in harmony with its geographical location and social composition. Since the 1980s, the country has undertaken reforms for a market-oriented economic management. These reforms, together with the upheavals in the situation in Eastern Europe, are known as a "transition" process. The country, previously the master of its economic reforms, is subject to international recommendations, brought by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, through conditions related to financial contributions. Macroeconomic models accompany these recommendations, which often have mixed and sometimes perverse results, because they are based on an inadequate appreciation of the historical, cultural, social and geographical dimensions of the country. The purpose of our study is therefore to understand the mechanism of macroeconomic modeling in order to better monitor the approach of the recommendations and the evaluation of the market mechanisms. The results of the study provided a better understanding of the discussions on the country's development and possible views for the 2020 horizon. The analysis of the development of the macroeconomic model provides increased knowledge about the use and construction of a macroeconomic model for the country.

This empirical work focuses on three important topics concerning India and Pakistan. We use a VAR approach to examine different channels of transmission of monetary shocks to the real sector. Our estimates suggest the existence of the interest rate and bank credit channel. Knowing the importance of price stability, we estimate underlying inflation using different approaches. Our estimates suggest that underlying inflation, measured with the truncated mean and structural VAR approaches, is more effective for monetary policy. We analyze backward-looking and forward-looking monetary rules to see how central banks behave.

The thesis focuses on the possibility of implementing the American "model" in the French economy. The period covered by the thesis begins in 1979, which marks the increase in financial constraints. It ends in 2002, when the recovery in the United States seems to be underway. The first part deals with the theory of regulation, which constitutes the reading grid of the thesis. The second part traces the evolutions that contribute to the growing financialization of economies. The last part is devoted to post-Keynesian modeling. We attempt to establish the conditions under which the domination of finance over all economic relations is likely to create the conditions for stable growth. The institutional hierarchical modification must be accompanied by the emergence of new institutional coherences. Once these conditions have been reproduced in the framework of a model that unfolds in a closed setting, it is possible to draw all the implications of an export of the American mode of regulation to France.

A developing country, faced with the changing world of today, wishes to find ways of development to be able if not to catch up, at least to integrate more, the outside world. The objective of this thesis is to try to answer this question. First, we construct a theoretical model of optimal growth that allows a developing country to know the conditions under which it can invest in physical capital, new technology and human capital. We show that, in general, it starts by investing only in physical capital. Later, he will invest in both physical and new technology capital. Finally, the investment in human capital necessary to produce the new technology good will accompany the other two investments in the last stage. It is interesting to note that we show that in the long run, the share destined for investments in new technology and human capital outweighs that destined for physical capital. Chapters 3 and 4 are devoted to the determination of an equilibrium exchange rate. This issue is essential for the outward opening of the economy. In particular, we propose a methodology to concretely evaluate the deviations of a country's exchange rate from its equilibrium level. We give an application of the FEER method to the case of Vietnam in relation to the Chinese and American currencies.

This thesis focuses on the informal sector in a developing country, Cambodia. It begins with a historical and economic presentation of this country. After examining the concept of informality, it presents an overview of the various components of the productive structure and estimates the contribution of the informal sector to GDP. It considers the mechanisms of labor allocation and analyzes the resulting segmentation. It demonstrates that the productive structure has little influence on the labor market and thus highlights the impact of relationship networks. Finally, it studies the role attributed to the informal sector in a development process and the policies advocated by international organizations. It presents the characteristics of Cambodian informal activities and suggests some avenues for developing policies for them and their workers, given the Cambodian institutional and political context.

This thesis aims at understanding the effect of an increase in the initial level of inequality on growth. We show, in particular, that an increase in inequality is detrimental to growth. Different mechanisms can explain such a result. The financial rationing approach is one of the possible explanations. Thus, one of our conclusions is that the negative effect of the initial level of inequality on growth is all the stronger when financial rationing is important. Our thesis places particular emphasis on political economy approaches. In a context where agents are financially rationed, and using a non-standard political economy mechanism, we show that the relationship between inequality and growth is non-linear. More generally, the initial distributional conditions turn out to have important implications on the democratization and development processes.

The purpose of this thesis is to calculate equilibrium exchange rates for the main industrialized countries (United States, Eurozone, Japan and United Kingdom) and the new member states (NMS) of the European Union (EU). Based on a critical analysis of equilibrium exchange rate theories, we favor, while enriching it, the approach based on foreign trade equations. The contributions of the thesis are at the empirical and methodological levels. First, we develop a computational method to respect the constraint on bilateral exchange rates and to minimize the gap between the targets set ex ante and those achieved ex post. Second, we propose estimates of trade elasticities that take into account long-run asymmetries between countries and the specificity of the aggregate euro area. Third, we analyze and quantify the impact of current account balances on the measurement of equilibrium exchange rates through an application to the new EU member states. At the end of this work, we show that the currencies of the major industrialized countries are characterized in 2003 by strong misalignments reflecting the size of their current account imbalances. In particular, the size of the US current account deficit is reflected in a strong overvaluation of the dollar. As regards the NMS, we stress the risks of a rapid entry into the euro. Indeed, it seems appropriate for these countries to retain some room for manoeuvre in terms of public and current account deficits, given their strong investment needs.

The mechanisms of adjustment by the labor market are studied through two approaches. First, relative price flexibility is analyzed using a simplified multinational macroeconomic model estimated on the 14 European countries. This model is used to study the consequences of symmetric and asymmetric supply and demand shocks. These simulations show that wage and employment flexibility only allows for an incomplete and very slow rebalancing (beyond ten years). Labor mobility is then studied with a model of migration movements articulated with a price-wage-employment block applied to the American case on the four large American regions. The simulations confirm that the flexibility of prisons allows only limited adjustments in the face of supply or demand shocks. Labor mobility does play a role in rebalancing, but to a very limited extent.

Our thesis addresses the exchange rate regime choices of East Asian countries in the era of free international capital flows. We recommend an intermediate regime with relatively low volatility and stability around the equilibrium exchange rate level and a regional cooperative solution. We estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of the currencies of Japan, China, and Korea over the period 1980-2000 using a multinational model describing foreign trade with the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world. For the other East Asian countries (Taiwan, Thai͏̈lande, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia) a simplified model is used for each of them and articulated with the results of the multinational model. The "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate" developed by Williamson serves as our theoretical framework of reference. The overvaluation of the yen and the strong undervaluation of the yuan are to be remembered after the 1997-98 crisis.

This thesis examines the extent to which the national trajectories of small industrialized countries (SICs) are affected by European economic and monetary integration. Starting from the study of the structural specificities of each country, the aim is to study the compatibility of the EMU between countries with different economic structures. In fact, the adoption of the single currency places the structural differences of economies at the center of economic policy concerns. Since adjustment mechanisms are at the heart of the problem, we shall see how abandoning the exchange rate as a vector of macroeconomic regulation may or may not be costly for the countries of the euro zone, and whether wage flexibility may or may not be an effective substitute. The first chapter presents the wage relationship of the IPPs through the degree of institutionalization, wage relations, wage formation and income policy. The mode of international insertion is discussed in a second chapter with respect to trade flows and specialization. The study of cost competitiveness and non cost competitiveness constitutes the core of the third chapter. It proposes an approach based on the evolution of export prices, wage costs in evolution and in level, and total costs in level. The fourth chapter deals with the exchange rate regime and proposes an evaluation of equilibrium exchange rates. The single market, economic integration and foreign direct investment are the subject of the fifth chapter. Finally, the last chapter deals with the issues of wage flexibility and policy coordination in a monetary union. We show to what extent EMU leads to the convergence of economies towards a standard configuration of structural forms and economic policy models and how it calls into question national specificities.

The financial crisis in Korea has had many repercussions on the economy of that country as well as on the world economy. The Korean state's domestic intervention in the financial market to expand the chaebols (Korean conglomerates), once praised and recently criticized as "crony capitalism," has created a myriad of problems in the country's economy that have led to the financial crisis. The international community, including the IMF and the World Bank, did not expect South Korea to be in financial turmoil because the economic fundamentals did not point to it. The financial crisis in South Korea cannot be explained by classical theories, but rather by sudden capital movements. Therefore, the need for capital control through increased intervention by the international community has been put on the agenda. However, the debate is far from over. My thesis, in two parts, addresses three questions: why the crisis broke out in Korea, what are its causes, and how Korea could emerge from it in order to return to its former position and thereby enter as a full member of the group of developed countries. The first part shows the link between the financial transformation and the crisis. The second part explains the Korean crisis on the basis of the theories exposed in the first part. As a conclusion, I suggest some policies that can pull the country out of the crisis, focusing on industrial restructuring (chaebols) and the financial system.

The thesis develops a multilateral approach to déquilibrium exchange rates. On the theoretical level, the analysis is in line with the so-called "macroeconomic equilibrium" approach developed both at the IMF and at the Institute for International Economics. This approach was popularized by Williamson with the concept of FEER: the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate. Empirically, the estimated equilibrium exchange rates result from a comparative statistics approach based on the foreign trade equations of the Nigem multinational model. First, particular attention is paid to the relationship between equilibrium exchange rates and structural current account balances (a concept that we define). We then illustrate the differences between our estimation method and the one used by the IMF in the context of a parameterized three-country model. Finally, we present the equilibrium exchange rates of the euro, the yen and the dollar that we obtain as well as their sensitivities to structural current account balances. The novelty lies in the presentation of the sensitivities of the equilibrium exchange rates to the deviations of the structural current account balances from their target as well as in the modalities of calculating mutually compatible bilateral exchange rates (nth currency problem). .

For the last ten years, foreign trade models have taken into account the differentiated nature of the good emphasized by international trade theory. When a variety demand constraint is introduced, the effects of differentiation on trade are modified insofar as it is not so much the number of varieties produced in a country that determines its competitiveness but rather the absence of a constraint on the number of varieties demanded. However, there is no statistical measure of the number of varieties, but it is shown, from a model of monopolistic competition with a two-factor technology, that the number of varieties can be related to the capital stock. The estimation of import and export functions for the major industrialized countries is carried out using an econometrics adapted to the study of non-stationary variables. The results show in general that the capital accumulation variable has a significant influence on the trade of industrialized countries. However, this variable measures the expansion of the number of varieties more than the imbalance between supply and demand. In this respect, it can be shown that the excess demand for varieties can be linked to the cessation of business activity. The estimation of the model for France highlights the existence of such a constraint as well as the role of foreign trade in the rebalancing.

The objective of this paper is to determine the capacity of the Brazilian economy to adapt to the recent changes in the nature and intensity of international constraints on all peripheral economies. To this end, its mode of international specialization, its power of attraction to foreign direct investment, its industrial structure, its income distribution dynamics and its innovation system are studied in detail. Finally, it is shown that the prospects for the Brazilian economy remain quite open.

Our research focuses on the relationship between public capital and productivity and economic growth. Under the term "public capital", we consider the basic infrastructure equipment involved in any productive process. In the first part, we introduce public capital at the heart of the dynamics of endogenous growth models. Thus, we discuss the fiscal distortions generated by the financing of infrastructure. From this model, we derive a contradiction for the government depending on the time horizon of its economic policy. In a second model, the interaction between the evolution of public capital and income growth generates an endogenous dynamic with multiple equilibria whose interpretation refers to circular processes of divergence between economies. The second part is devoted to the empirical verification of our research topic. On the one hand, the econometric appreciation of the transitional dynamics of the Solow augmentation model validates the positive and significant contribution of infrastructure to growth. On the other hand, the study of the direction of causality of our relationship attests to the validity of the reciprocal causality hypothesis exploited in our theoretical approach. In a third and final part, we isolate the fundamental influence of public capital on the spatial distribution of productive activities. In a model of economic geography, we illustrate the power of attraction that quality public services exert on the location choice of firms. Thus, in a configuration of economic integration, differences in infrastructure endowments are likely to be at the origin of a polarization of industrial activities. Empirically, this spatial dynamic is partly confirmed by our economic evaluation of the determinants of intra-EU direct investment.

Our work focuses on the problems that Vietnam may face during its transition to a market economy. It is based on its particularity of overlapping both the characteristics of a planned economy and those of a developing economy. Three lines of research have been defined in order to delimit our field of study. The first concerns the difficulties of macroeconomic stabilization in the context of an economy in transition. The comparison we have made in this area between Eastern European countries and Vietnam shows that the pace, timing and extent of reforms required by the transition to a market economy system can affect macroeconomic stability in the short run. The second line of research focuses more on the problem of financing the transition. In particular, Vietnam's characteristics as a developing country tend to accentuate the difficulties in this area: low savings and investment rates, underdevelopment of the banking and financial system, limited access to external financing. Therefore, the experience of China in the management of the savings-investment balance can be of great interest to Vietnam. The last line of research concerns the role of foreign direct investment and economic openness on development and growth. Like many other developing countries, Vietnam has actively encouraged the entry of foreign investors in order to facilitate the industrialization and economic modernization of the country.

The first objective of this paper is to obtain, from an original database, robust results on the average quality and properties of economic forecasts. We analyze the statistical means available to judge this quality and show the characteristics of past errors. The "vertical" analysis of forecasts allows a comparison of variables within each organization and the "horizontal" analysis of forecasts allows a comparison of organizations among themselves. We review the literature on forecast combinations. Finally, we analyze the predictions by keeping the temporal dimension of the error chronicles. We show that forecasters face a major problem: their inability to predict turning points. However, being wrong at these particular dates means that the cyclical dynamics of the economy that we are trying to forecast are poorly understood. The second objective of this paper is therefore to show that the recent tools for identifying the trend and cyclical components of growth are part of the techniques necessary for the elaboration of a business cycle diagnosis and the construction of a forecast scenario. We describe all the statistical and economic tools available and their implications through their critical analysis. We show that the various methods described above, although of very different inspiration, lead to relatively comparable profiles of GDP deviation in the past.

The thesis proposes to examine the compatibility between the European economic and monetary union and the presence of countries with different levels of development. First, we recall the content of the EMU and the main benefits to be expected from it as described by the European Commission's analyses. These effects are then examined from the point of view of the sensitive points that condition their virtuous chain. In this perspective, the thesis proposes to show that the analyses leading to the Delors report underestimate the role of national adjustments in the success of monetary integration. In particular, there is a strong risk that EMU will penalize the catching-up process of southern European countries and lead them into optically divergent dynamics. It is therefore prudent and necessary to examine the processes by which balancing mechanisms could be defined. The literature on fiscal federalism, analyzed from the perspective of the specificities uncovered for the United States, reveals mechanisms that are, at present, particularly lacking in the European project. A historical perspective of the convergence process in the United States then provides some stylized facts on the dynamics of rebalancing among the American states and allows us to draw lessons that may shed light on the European debate. Beyond the analogies and differences, this foray into history teaches that the structural accounting of a currency union with a process of.

The break in growth dynamics in the mid-1970s for the five largest industrialized countries is explained by the conjunction of three industrial, external and monetary constraints. The study covers the period 1960-1992. The industrial constraint is demonstrated by the application of an econometric relation proposed by Kaldor between the growth of industrial production and that of income. The external constraint is analyzed in terms of bifurcation and an economic relationship between external balance and growth differential is tested. Finally, the monetary constraint is presented through the role of savings in the adjustment of the income distribution on the one hand, and of interest rates in the determination of the volume and sectoral orientation of investment on the other. The implications of the Phelps golden rule are assessed. A synthesis is made using a principal component analysis with 45 economic indicators from 1966 to 1986. Starting from the reversal of the very definition of money with the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, monetary and financial strategies that can support the industrialization of economies are defined. In the internal sphere, a policy of resource allocation, organization of financial circuits and interest rates is proposed. In the external field, the analysis covers the regulation of external equilibria by exchange rates, the organization of the international monetary system and attempts at European integration.

Inspired by the analysis of the instability of the Brazilian economy in the 1980s, this research is a contribution to the neo-structuralist macroeconomic approach. The first chapters are devoted to the debates generated by the adoption of liberal stabilization and adjustment policies. The study then presents a "four disequilibrium" macroeconomic model (real, monetary, external, and fiscal), inspired in particular by the work of l. Taylor, and e. Bacha. This model serves as a basis for a theoretical analysis of the perverse effects of traditional adjustment policies in economies subject to the double constraint of internal and external public debt. The properties of the model and the conclusions of the comparative static study are based in particular on the hypothesis of inflation induced by distributional conflicts, and on the fact that the government must cover the interest payments on the external debt by acquiring foreign currency from private exporters and make up the resulting public deficit by issuing currency or domestic currency. This theoretical approach is then confronted with the recent cyclical history of the Brazilian economy, with particular attention to the years 88-89.

This work seeks to clarify the question of external constraint through the reading of a very specific statistical tool: the balance of payments. The use of this instrument, particularly in the context of economic budgets at the Direction de la Prévision, has led to the definition of a synthetic aggregate: the "financing capacity or need" of the external accounts. This aggregate is an accounting measure of the external constraint. Despite its common name, it differs from the one defined by national accountants because it includes current transactions and certain capital movements. It is this understanding of external constraint that is used in this work. The balance thus generated, which must be financed by debt or by changes in foreign exchange reserves, sheds light on the intensity of the constraint weighing on the balance of the external accounts. The definition of this aggregate implies a reflection on the nature of the flows (indebtedness, flows sensitive to exchange rate expectations described as "speculative", others). The origin of the imbalances in trade is questioned. This is the subject of the first three parts of this work (part 1: real imbalances: commodities.

The analysis of employment conditions through a heterodox reading grid makes it possible to consider two determinants for them: - the evolution of labor legislation - the employment management of firms the illustration of employment conditions in the major industrialized countries (france, germany, united kingdom, italy, usa), based on dichotomous short-term employment functions, highlights the diversity of situations between industrial sectors. Recent changes in employment conditions are determined by statistical tests of stability. The simulation of a macroeconomic model suggests that these breaks have had a limited ex-post impact on employment.