The balance of payments: expression of the external constraint: the French case.

Summary This work seeks to clarify the question of external constraint through the reading of a very specific statistical tool: the balance of payments. The use of this instrument, particularly in the context of economic budgets at the Direction de la Prévision, has led to the definition of a synthetic aggregate: the "financing capacity or need" of the external accounts. This aggregate is an accounting measure of the external constraint. Despite its common name, it differs from the one defined by national accountants because it includes current transactions and certain capital movements. It is this understanding of external constraint that is used in this work. The balance thus generated, which must be financed by debt or by changes in foreign exchange reserves, sheds light on the intensity of the constraint weighing on the balance of the external accounts. The definition of this aggregate implies a reflection on the nature of the flows (indebtedness, flows sensitive to exchange rate expectations described as "speculative", others). The origin of the imbalances in trade is questioned. This is the subject of the first three parts of this work (part 1: real imbalances: commodities.