A multilateral approach to equilibrium exchange rates: Theory and applications to the cases of the euro area, the United States and Japan.

Summary The thesis develops a multilateral approach to déquilibrium exchange rates. On the theoretical level, the analysis is in line with the so-called "macroeconomic equilibrium" approach developed both at the IMF and at the Institute for International Economics. This approach was popularized by Williamson with the concept of FEER: the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate. Empirically, the estimated equilibrium exchange rates result from a comparative statistics approach based on the foreign trade equations of the Nigem multinational model. First, particular attention is paid to the relationship between equilibrium exchange rates and structural current account balances (a concept that we define). We then illustrate the differences between our estimation method and the one used by the IMF in the context of a parameterized three-country model. Finally, we present the equilibrium exchange rates of the euro, the yen and the dollar that we obtain as well as their sensitivities to structural current account balances. The novelty lies in the presentation of the sensitivities of the equilibrium exchange rates to the deviations of the structural current account balances from their target as well as in the modalities of calculating mutually compatible bilateral exchange rates (nth currency problem). .