Industrial strategy of Asian countries in transition: the case of Vietnam.

Summary This thesis proposes to study the issues associated with the choice of an industrialization strategy for Vietnam in this new global economic environment. The thesis consists of three parts. The first part focuses on the debate about the import substitution and export-oriented industrialization strategies of Asian countries. It reviews the different theoretical currents in order to shed light on the subject, to highlight the advances as well as the limitations of Asian industrialization models and the lessons learned for Vietnam. The second part analyzes Vietnam's investment policy, from the impact of foreign direct investment and international integration on trade to the causal relationship between investment, export and import in Vietnam. The conclusions in this part are drawn from time series analysis and the construction of a gravity model for trade. The last part discusses Vietnam's international competitiveness problem as well as China's competition for Vietnamese goods in the international and domestic market. The overall conclusion summarizes the progress of Vietnam's industrialization process as well as the challenges Vietnam faces in moving towards sustainable development.