Global imbalances and adjustments: a coherent multinational stock-flow model.

Summary The objective of this thesis is to study global imbalances with an empirical stock-flow consistent multinational model. The last financial crisis of 2008, which was followed by a global economic crisis, reconfigured the evolution of many macroeconomic variables. Global imbalances have been reduced significantly and the continuation of this adjustment is mainly due to cyclical macroeconomic factors, because of the collapse of demand. Given the major changes in recent years, our research examines the prospects for future growth in the United States, China and Europe under current economic policies to 2030. To do so, we first use the C.A.M. model developed by F. Cripps, and then we estimate our own multinational model with five regions. The analysis focuses on the evolution of global imbalances, economic growth and the exchange rate. The projections of the base scenario of our multinational model, in the case of the continuation of the current policies, show that the adjustment of external imbalances is maintained at the cost of internal imbalances.