BLANCHET Didier

France has experienced a clear reversal of older workers’ labor force par-ticipation (LFP) and employment rates over the last 15 years. These two rates had continuously declined in the 1970s and the 1980s for the 60–64 age group, bringing employment rates at a low 10 percent for both genders.

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This thesis proposes an evaluation of the pension system in Morocco and its ongoing reform process, using a dynamic microsimulation model. It is structured around two distinct and complementary parts that allow us to build the scenario of extending pension coverage for non-salaried workers. In the first part, we begin by studying the nature of the demographic changes facing the pension system, the way in which past reforms have tried to respond to them and the unresolved issues. Then, using data from the Haut-Commissariat au Plan, we carry out an empirical study that measures informal employment, identifies its characteristics and determinants, and examines the reasons for its existence, i.e., whether it is suffered or chosen. The second part of this thesis consists, in the first instance, in describing all the work carried out in the construction of the dynamic microsimulation model. We then develop a detailed explanation of the steps and techniques adopted and written in R language, using programming tools developed for the rewriting of the Destinie model of INSEE. Subsequently, we propose an evaluation of the last parametric reform of the Moroccan Pension Fund (2016), comparing it to the projected evolutions using the programmed model. Finally, we use the same model to simulate reform options to create pension coverage for informal workers.

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France stands out as a country with a low labor force attachment of older workers. A reversal in the trend of French labor participation rates over 50 is under way, partly due to the pension reforms that took place since 1993. The French ageing process is driven by large gains in life expectancy and Pension reforms allocate part of these gains to work rather than to retirement. The implicit assumptions guiding the reforms have been that additional years of life are years with a health status that can be considered reasonably compatible with work. If this is not the case, the idea of sharing these additional years of life between work and retirement is questionable. Considering mortality and health status, we question the fact that the reforms may have gone too far in increasing the retire.

Demographic aging in France is a major concern and is the subject of several studies from an economic point of view. Most studies highlight the negative effects of aging on the French economy, particularly on social welfare accounts and the labor market. Recently, a new literature on aging has emerged. This literature seeks to identify and show how aging can be an opportunity for the economy. This thesis is part of this literature. It seeks to answer the following question: Can aging be an opportunity for the French economy? To answer this question, the thesis explores the savings and consumption tracks, with an emphasis on the consumption part. The thesis is articulated in five chapters. Chapter 1 describes the causes of demographic aging in France and reviews studies on the effect of this phenomenon on the French economy. Chapter 2 analyzes the evolution of income, consumption and savings over the life cycle and across generations in order to understand the evolution of aggregate consumption and savings in an aging society and with generational turnover. These results also make it possible to compare the standard of living of different age groups and generations. Chapter 3 focuses on the evolution of the consumption structure according to age, generations and following a change in household income. Chapter 4 starts from the observation of the change in consumption structure over time, the difference in consumption structure between working-age households and senior citizens to estimate equivalence scales from 1979 to 2010, for senior citizens and working-age households. These scales make it possible to compare the standard of living of seniors and working-age households, taking into account economies of scale within the different households. Finally, Chapter 5 uses a general equilibrium model to quantify the effect of aging on the consumption, production and employment structure.

This thesis proposes evaluations of recent reforms of the French pension system, using two distinct and complementary approaches: ex post evaluation by microeconometrics and ex ante evaluation by microsimulation. An introductory chapter provides a review of the literature on the effect of the pension system on activity behavior. Next, we use the reforms of the mandatory retirement scheme in the 2000s to identify an effect of labor demand on labor market withdrawal behavior. We then assess the effect of the increase in the minimum retirement age introduced by the 2003 reform. We study the effects of the reform on employment after the age of 60, but also the potential substitution effects towards other public schemes, in particular unemployment insurance.The second part of this thesis, devoted to the evaluation by microsimulation, opens with a presentation of the approach applied to retirement and its use in French models. First, we propose an evaluation of the increase in the duration of insurance provided for by the 2003 reform. The principle of maintaining a constant ratio between the duration of working life and the duration of retirement is questioned, and then compared with the changes projected in simulation using the INSEE'sDestinie model. Finally, we use the Institute of Public Policy's Pensipp model to simulate new reform options that would reduce the pension system's dependence on growth and the uncertainty about its financial balance.

The objective of this thesis is to verify whether the baby-boomers are at the origin of a break in intergenerational equity in France. It is based on an application of the National Transfer Accounts method, which provides an age-specific measure of consumption, individual resources, savings and public and private transfers between 1979 and 2011. Projections are also made to the year 2060 using the MELETE model for public transfers received and disposable income. The results, which are established with regard to the main criteria of intergenerational justice, do not show a clear and generalized break in intergenerational equity, even if French society is characterized by certain inequities concerning the distribution of income from assets and the distribution of retirement pensions between generations. Moreover, this thesis provides results that are useful for understanding family solidarity in France. Over the last thirty years, the increase in the economic weight of donations and inheritances has coincided with a decrease in the weight of aid within households and a stability in the weight of aid between households. The result is that private transfers between households are less and less adapted to the needs of the beneficiaries, which is corroborated by a micro-econometric panel analysis that shows that events experienced by donors can trigger the payment of donations, unlike aid between households, which depends exclusively on events experienced by the recipients.

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France stands out as a country with a low labor force attachment of older workers. A reversal in the trend of French labor participation rates over 50 is under way, partly due to the pension reforms that took place since 1993. The French ageing process is driven by large gains in life expectancy and Pension reforms allocate part of these gains to work rather than to retirement. The implicit assumptions guiding the reforms have been that additional years of life are years with a health status that can be considered reasonably compatible with work. If this is not the case, the idea of sharing these additional years of life between work and retirement is questionable. Considering mortality and health status, we question the fact that the reforms may have gone too far in increasing the retirement age. To tackle these issues, we rely on two different methodological approaches developed in the economic literature: one based on the gap in employment rates across time for given mortality rates. the other using the work/health relationship measured at certain ages to predict the health-related work capacity of older age groups at the same period of time. Both methods aim at providing measures of additional work capacity. This capacity may be defined as a measure of the distance between current retirement ages and what we call the “health barrier”, i.e. the age at which health prevents people from working longer. Both methods predict high average levels of additional work capacity. However, the picture becomes somewhat different when disaggregating the results by social groups or education. Our results emphasize the idea that policies aiming at activating any estimated additional work capacity should take into account, when possible, the heterogeneity of health conditions in the population. Moreover, additional work capacity cannot be a general indicator of how much seniors should work. The methods used here indeed leave aside many factors that determine the employment rate of older workers.

The ageing of populations in developed economies appears to be a major issue in which employment is at the center of all concerns. It also influences the balance of their social protection system. This thesis focuses on the low employment rate of French seniors, represented by the over-50s, compared to other European countries. The shift in public policy towards seniors from a logic of exclusion to one of inclusion in the labor market in the 2000s has led to a slow and limited improvement in their employment rate. While other European countries have also been affected by the change in policies, it is legitimate to question the reasons for their moderate impact in France.This thesis is organized around two complementary parts. The first part states the weakness of the employment rate of seniors in France compared to its European neighbors (chapter one). This weakness is reflected in an occupational segregation that increases with age, which leads to difficulties in the orientation of older men in certain sectors and certain occupations within these sectors. Other avenues of reflection on the supposed reasons for this low employment rate of older men are also considered in a review of the literature (chapter two). These reasons come from several fields: the structural field and the characteristics of labor supply and demand, which illustrates the complexity of the problem for public authorities. The second part of the paper attempts to measure a persistent factor in the underemployment of seniors, even when all the objective reasons for which recruiters' preferences are less inclined to hire seniors are neutralized: age discrimination in hiring (and gender discrimination in some specific cases). Two types of methods and data are used to measure the residual part of the differences in the probability of being employed or of access to employment (of which discrimination is one of the components): decomposition methods on survey data, giving a measure qualified as objective (chapter three) with an extension analyzing the link between this residual part and the economic situation, and the methodology of correspondence tests, or testing, on experimental data collected on a selection of occupations in tension (chapter four). The first method shows a large residual part of the probability gap, suggesting high risks of age and gender discrimination. The comparison of the job access rates of the second method conducted on nearly 6,000 applications illustrates these risks according to which seniors have less chance of accessing a job interview compared to younger people with similar characteristics. We will see the different explanatory hypotheses of the underemployment of seniors, documented by the literature, such as the short distance to retirement, the obsolescence of skills in a situation of technological shocks, the social norms of gender (through professional reconversion) and age (through the exogenous preferences of recruiters).One of the guiding threads of the thesis is to distinguish the situation of senior men and women in terms of employment. There are clear differences throughout this thesis, with men's situation more problematic than that of their female counterparts in terms of the employment rate gap, occupational segregation, and hiring discrimination.

The French pension system has undergone a great deal of reform in recent decades, and these reforms should have extremely significant financial effects. But two questions remain open. The first is the simplification of a system that is not very clear and not harmonized. The second is that past reforms do not deal well with the economic and demographic uncertainty to which the system is exposed. Its sensitivity to the vagaries of economic growth has even been increased by the price indexation rules introduced at the end of the 1980s. This article uses the Pensipp model to explore three possible responses to this last problem: two structural reforms (notional accounts or generalization of the points-based pension) and a parametric scenario that simply rationalizes the indexation rules of the current system.

France stands out as a country with a low labor force attachment of older workers. A reversal in the trend of French labor participation rates over 50 is under way, partly due to the pension reforms that took place since 1993. The French ageing process is driven by large gains in life expectancy and Pension reforms allocate part of these gains to work rather than to retirement. The implicit assumptions guiding the reforms have been that additional years of life are years with a health status that can be considered reasonably compatible with work. If this is not the case, the idea of sharing these additional years of life between work and retirement is questionable.Considering mortality and health status, we question the fact that the reforms may have gone too far in increasing the retirement age. To tackle these issues, we rely on two different methodological approaches developed in the economic literature: one based on the gap in employment rates across time for given mortality rates. the other using the work/health relationship measured at certain ages to predict the health-related work capacity of older age groups at the same period of time. Both methods aim at providing measures of additional work capacity. This capacity may be defined as a measure of the distance between current retirement ages and what we call the “health barrier”, i.e. the age at which health prevents people from working longer.Both methods predict high average levels of additional work capacity. However, the picture becomes somewhat different when disaggregating the results by social groups or education. Our results emphasize the idea that policies aiming at activating any estimated additional work capacity should take into account, when possible, the heterogeneity of health conditions in the population. Moreover, additional work capacity cannot be a general indicator of how much seniors should work. The methods used here indeed leave aside many factors that determine the employment rate of older workers.

The first chapter of this thesis addresses the question of the relationship between the savings rate and current and permanent income. Using several measures of permanent income, we show that, regardless of the definition of income used, the better-off save more. The second chapter focuses on the impact of intergenerational transfers on the purchase of the principal residence and on business creation. We show that households having received a gift or an inheritance buy their primary residence more frequently. For business creation, the effect of the donation remains significant while that of the inheritance is no longer significant. The third chapter extends this analysis by studying the link between inheritance and retirement. By focusing our analysis on individuals aged 55 to 65 who received an inheritance, we show that the probability of retirement increases significantly the year of receipt of the inheritance, compared to a later receipt. We also show the importance of risk aversion in the role played by inheritance on retirement. The fourth chapter studies the economic consequences of divorce and PACS breakup. Our results suggest that, contrary to popular belief, it is not the number of children that has the most important effect on these variations, but rather the differences in income between spouses before separation. Government transfers play an important role, as do the massive returns to the labor market of ex-spouses who were unemployed one year before the divorce (mainly women).

The problematic of the thesis is the low rate of social coverage in the Algerian labor market. 73% of the employed population in the private sector is not affiliated with social security according to the employment survey of the National Statistics Office (ONS, 2013). The objective of the thesis is to understand the reasons for this low social security coverage. The analysis of the Algerian social security system shows its capacity to provide social coverage to all categories of the employed population. However, the demand for social insurance remains low. The literature shows that the demand for social insurance is closely linked to consumer behavior over the life cycle. The most discussed behaviors in a social insurance context are: intertemporal choices, risk aversion, and social orientations. These variables, along with other socioeconomic and demographic variables, are the key variables in this thesis. We measure them through an experimental survey of 654 workers. We use lottery games to measure risk aversion and intertemporal choices. We implement the most explicit form of the dictatorship game to measure respondents' degrees of altruism. Our survey measures other characteristic variables that encourage debate. Analysis of the survey results shows the significant impact of these variables on the demand for social insurance.

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Modeling retirement behavior is an essential issue for both practitioners and researchers. For pension plan managers, it is indeed crucial to be able to make long-term projections of the financial equilibrium - or imbalance - of the plans for which they are responsible, and the importance of changes in retirement behavior in response to programmed changes in pension scales is considerable. For academics, particularly in the fields of public economics and labor economics, understanding the way in which individuals choose to stop working is an ambition that remains highly topical. Work has made it possible to understand the intertemporal dimension of retirement choices, but the explanatory capacity of the models remains weak, both in terms of explaining temporal changes and international differences in retirement behavior. In this context, studying the retirement behavior of civil servants is a way of making progress in these two dimensions. Indeed, little work has been done on civil servants using French data. The fact that civil servants in France can remain in employment until the desired retirement age allows the researcher to rule out labor demand effects, which are often difficult to model convincingly, and which are likely to play an important role in the choice of retirement benefits for private sector employees. This advantage is counterbalanced by a characteristic of the pension scale in the civil service, which is extremely marked by age limits, and therefore less likely to involve a financial trade-off between continuing to work and retirement. The 2003 reform and its aftermath have changed the incentives to retire in the public sector, which suggests an increased capacity to estimate models of retirement behavior.

We analyze the influence of health and financial incentives on the retirement behavior of older workers in France, building upon the Stock and Wise (1990) option value approach. The model accounts for three main retirement routes: normal retirement, disability insurance (DI), and unemployment/preretirement pathways, and is estimated with a combination of microeconomic datasets that include the French data of the European SHARE survey. The estimates confirm that a decrease in the generosity of the pension and DI schemes induces people to stay longer in the labor market, and that people with better health tend to retire later. We present extreme situations simulating what an individual's retirement behavior would have been if only one retirement route had existed and in the absence of constraints on work capabilities. We show that average years of work between 55 and 64 are nearly 14% greater when regular retirement incentives are applied to the whole population than when it is DI rules that are systematically applied.

We analyze the influence of health and financial incentives on the retirement behavior of older workers in France, building upon Stock and Wise (1990) option value approach. The model accounts for three main retirement routes: the normal retirement, disability insurance (DI) and unemployment/preretirement pathways, and is estimated with a combination of microeconomic datasets that include the French data of the European SHARE survey. The estimates confirm that a decrease in the generosity of the pension and DI schemes induces people to stay longer in the labor market, and that people with better health tend to retire later. We present extreme situations simulating what individual's retirement behavior would have been if only one retirement route had existed and in the absence of constraints on work capabilities. We show that average years of work between 55 and 64 are nearly 14% greater when regular retirement incentives are applied to the whole population than when it is DI rules that are systematically applied.

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This thesis proposes an analysis of educational investment at the individual level. It develops a dynamic perspective that seeks to analyze the links between education and trajectories over the long term. To do so, we use a dynamic microsimulation model. The first part of the thesis focuses on initial education. It seeks to assess the impact of the diversity of trajectories on the heterogeneity of monetary gains associated with different levels of education. We first show that some graduates, because of the unfavorable trajectories they experience on the labor market, have a non-negligible probability of not financially valuing their education. The analysis of the gains from initial education is then extended to individuals' marital behavior. In particular, we show that taking into account the wage income of spouses reduces inequalities between graduates, despite the existence of educational homogamy phenomena. The second part of the thesis is devoted to "continuing education" (CE) or "post-school". Taking into account family and professional factors that may affect access to CE, this part aims to measure the level of expenditure that individuals receive for training once they have completed their initial studies. The results highlight a high degree of heterogeneity in this expenditure and the divergent role of the various training schemes. They also show that the amounts invested in the post-school training of individuals remain low compared to those invested in initial training.

Financial projections recently conducted by the French Pensions Advisory Council (Conseil d’orientation des retraites, COR) show large deficits in the medium run which should attract the attention of policy-makers. But what about the long-run projections? This IPP Policy Brief discusses these recent projections and stresses a number of implications. The various macro-economic scenarios lead to a wide variety of outcomes concerning the financial equilibrium of the pension system. The median scenario of these projections shows a stabilisation of pension spending as a share of GDP in 2050-60 but this result is highly dependent on the growth rate of the economy. Were growth higher than expected, public pensions would shrink as a share of GDP. On the other hand, were growth lower than expected, then the current system would result in an increasing share of pensions in the national income. This mechanism is the result of the type of pension reforms implemented in France since the mid-1990s: by indexing both pensions and reference wages to inflation, pension liabilities are only reduced if growth is significant. Reforming the French pension system to make its financial equilibrium less dependent on growth could be another objective – in addition to reducing its complexity – of a possible structural reform.

This thesis aims to enrich the economic approach to retirement behavior, so that it is better able to understand and predict the effects of retirement policies. To this end, we propose an empirical framework for the analysis of individual preferences for retirement that allows us to clarify the role of its three main determinants: health status, working conditions and pension rights. The identification of preferences for retirement is made possible but also necessary by pension reforms, notably in France, which reinforce the incentives to raise the effective retirement age. In order to be as close as possible to the real preferences of individuals, we proceed in two stages. First, we adopt an inductive approach to study the mechanisms by which working conditions, health and pension rights influence the preference for retirement. These mechanisms are not well known, mainly because of the difficulties in observing the precise conditions under which retirement decisions are made. We show that one way to overcome these difficulties is to mobilize survey data, mixing subjective assessments and information from objective sources. Our results show that potentially pathogenic working conditions, professional wear and tear caused by a deteriorated state of health and a low level of knowledge of retirement rights concern a significant proportion of older workers. Secondly, we propose a synthetic approach to the preference for retirement, by evaluating its economic value, which we define as the price of giving up the right to retire at a given age. To do so, we start from two experimental settings that allow its identification. We show not only that this price is high, but also that it varies significantly with the profile of the individuals.

The projections conducted in 2012 by the Conseil d'orientation des retraites (COR) still show large pension deficits in the short and medium term: their reduction will certainly be the focus of the discussions announced for 2013. On the other hand, the median scenarios of these projections foresee an almost stabilized situation by 2050-2060. Can we conclude from this that the problems that remain to be addressed are only temporary? A great deal of progress has indeed been made since the early 1990s, with reforms affecting both replacement rates and retirement ages. But the resulting balance remains very sensitive to growth assumptions, because of the mechanisms used to curb the share of pensions in national income. A 0.3 point decline in the rate of growth increases the ratio of pensions to gross domestic product (GDP) by about one point. Finding balancing mechanisms that are less dependent on growth could be one of the tasks of a possible structural reform, in addition to the objective of simplifying a particularly fragmented system.

In France, as in several other industrialized countries, the insurance system for occupational injuries and diseases includes an a posteriori pricing mechanism. The aim is to encourage individual companies to invest in the prevention of occupational injuries. Beyond this expected effect, however, this system potentially leads to undesired effects: accentuation of the under-reporting of claims, negative influence on employment and salaries, etc. In addition, the phenomenon of under-recognition of occupational injuries may substantially limit the benefits of this system in terms of prevention. The present research sheds light on the capacity of this system to mitigate the social cost of work-related accidents and diseases. The results suggest in particular that this system leads to an increase in the prevention effort of companies and a decrease in their claims rate. However, they also highlight a massive phenomenon of under-recognition of work-related health expenses among blue-collar and white-collar workers, limiting the scope of this scheme.

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The thesis is devoted to the study of three forms of "solidarity" in the agglomeration of Antananarivo (Madagascar): famangiana, or visits accompanied by a gift, carried out on the occasion of certain events; cohabitation within the same household; and material and financial mutual aid between different households. Famangia are a widespread practice (77% of households have made one in three months), and are more common when an unfortunate event (a death) occurs than when a happy event (a birth) occurs. Households' participation in this Malagasy custom is determined by the size of their network of relations, while the amounts of the gifts they make are determined by economic factors (notably their income). Cohabitation within the same household is essentially between parents and their children, and is a massive phenomenon, since very few people live alone (less than 2%). Intergenerational cohabitation (between adult children and their parents) seems to benefit young people more than their parents. Finally, financial and material mutual aid with other households concerned two out of three households in the Antananarivo agglomeration over a six-month period. The balance of the agglomeration with respect to the rest of the world is largely positive, due in particular to the aid received from abroad. Most of the transfers take place between parents and their children, but, unlike cohabitation, for financial and material mutual aid, the balance is largely favorable to the parents.

This thesis addresses the theme of inequality of opportunity in Peru through four analyses. The first one tries to find out if the considerable development of education, which characterizes Peru since the beginning of the 20th century, has translated into an equalization of opportunities in access to education. It shows that the inequality of educational opportunities has remained the same during the 20th century, except for women in rural areas who have experienced a relative democratization in access to education. The second analysis looks at inequality of opportunity in the Lima labor market by testing whether two individuals working in the same occupation at a given time have the same chances of career advancement. It appears that social origin is a determining factor in the evolution of the professional career, once its influence on the previous stages of the life cycle has been taken into account. The third analysis deals with inequality of opportunity in access to higher education. It proposes a model explaining the simultaneous and non-exclusive choice to enter higher education and to work, by introducing several channels of intergenerational transmission of inequalities. This model allows testing a public policy aimed at increasing equality of opportunity in Peru by improving access to student jobs. The last analysis aims to understand how Limenians' perception of inequality of opportunity in Peru is formed, based on qualitative interviews. It studies the role played by individual mobility in the formation of this perception, measuring mobility using objective and subjective indicators.

The objective of the thesis is to measure the medium and long term consequences of the reform of private sector pensions, with unchanged legislation, and to carry out a comparative analysis of the effects of the 1993 and 2003 reforms on the level and distribution of future pensions by 2030. To this end, we construct and use a microsimulation model, the ARTEMIS model (Analysis of Private Sector Pensions by Microsimulation), based on the file of insured persons in the general old age insurance scheme of the social security system managed by the National Old Age Insurance Fund for Employees (CNAV). This scheme covers private sector employees, i.e. nearly two thirds of the French working population. This thesis is organized in two main parts. In the first part entitled "Microsimulation and pensions of the general scheme", we present the interest of microsimulation for the study of the pensions of the general scheme in the long term, as well as the main characteristics of this scheme. The second part on "The ARTEMIS microsimulation model and its results" describes the model, and then presents the simulations of the pensions of the general scheme for the year 2030 and their comparison with other available evaluation sources. We focus on the path of the generations 1935 to 1970. We analyze the effects of these reforms on total expenditures, as well as their redistributive consequences, taking into account individual career changes. Indeed, pension policy, like any social policy, is based on principles combining economic efficiency and redistribution.

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Seen from afar, it seems that Denmark, Norway and Sweden form a single entity, Scandinavia. In fact, when we talk about the Nordic countries and a fortiori the Scandinavian countries, the notion of unity takes precedence over the notion of diversity. The grouping of these countries into the "Scandinavian model" contributes to the amalgam. Thus, the comparative study of Sweden and Norway is particularly stimulating. The purpose of this study is to analyze the progressive intervention of the State in the field of the family. The first social laws adopted to protect certain family members appeared punctually at the end of the 19th century. First there were laws aimed at recognizing the status of the child, but in addition to this role of guardian of the rights of the child, the State had to provide assistance to families. In a sense, this function is the result of the modification of the status of the child, since it has the corollary of transforming the relationships within the family and even imposing new roles on the parents, mainly the mothers. The historical and political evolution of women's rights and then of mothers' rights shaped policies for families in the early 20th century. Even if the establishment of family policies is strongly correlated to the establishment of welfare states, this historical perspective via maternity policies is an essential link in understanding the content of current family policies. Since the 1970s, policy priorities have shifted towards a model that emphasizes measures to harmonize the family and professional spheres. However, the policy of reconciling family and professional activities is upsetting the traditional standards of motherhood. Compared to Sweden, Norway is the poor relation in this field. Does this mean that Norwegian and Swedish family policies do not fit into the same model?

In this thesis, we aim to answer the following question: how to represent and integrate the population in the decision making process regarding the fight against the greenhouse effect? Given the uncertain and controversial nature of the problem, we propose to use foresight to answer this question. To do so, we construct a set of scenarios, based on a coherent set of assumptions, that incorporate elements of the main de��mo-economic theses at hand. We show that the way in which the population is represented plays an important role in the debates that are at the heart of greenhouse negotiations: (a) the trajectories of CO emissions diverge in a significant way according to the different competing visions of the relationship between population and the global environment, (b) the calculation of the relative contributions of population and GDP to CO emissions confirms that the choice of an emission rights allocation rule (based on population or GDP) will not have the same impact in all regions, as they go through different phases of demo-economic transition. A choice of allocation of emission rights based on population favors developing regions, while an allocation of rights based on GDP favors developed regions. (c) Population growth imposes an additional constraint on the wait-and-see approach to emission reduction. Population dynamics, both globally and particularly at the regional level, suggest, in the name of the precautionary principle, that emissions should be reduced significantly in the short term.

This thesis includes three approaches to the housing market that aim to capture the interactions between demographics and housing. 1. Analysis of the influence of demographic cycles on aggregate housing demand: a review of macroeconomic models of the housing market including a demographic determinant is presented, followed by a modeling of the housing market based on French economic data. The major assumption of this model is the idea of a systematic surplus of housing supply over demand, the magnitude of which determines the price. Finally, this model is simulated according to different demographic and economic scenarios. 2. Analysis of the demographic determinants of individual housing choices: the aim is to detect a possible life cycle logic in the residential behavior of households with acquisition of housing during the working period and de-accumulation during retirement. These behaviors are tested on the 92 housing survey: housing consumption, occupation status and mobility are analyzed. 3. Microsimulation of the housing market that allows to study the interactions between the aging of the population, the housing market and the intergenerational transfers (inheritance and pension system): the model considers a heterogeneous population where individuals are born, have children, grow old and die, receive salaries or pensions and sometimes benefit from an inheritance Each agent lives through one or two periods during which he optimizes his consumption according to the principles of the generalized life cycle theory. While we find ourselves in each period with a population of individuals with different characteristics, the macroeconomic closure of the model sets up a price system that ensures the accounting consistency of behaviors. Finally, this model is simulated in order to analyze the effects of different demographic shocks and economic developments.

According to common demographic logic, the aging of the population should result in an increase in the retirement age. This is at least what is predicted for the next century. The aim of this thesis is to question the relevance of this diagnosis and its implications. We begin by noting that this postulate is not empirically verified in the past or in diachronic section when comparing countries at different levels of development. Aging is rather associated with a decrease in the retirement age. We are then interested in the factors that can explain this phenomenon retrospectively. Two analyses can be proposed: - an analysis of the labor supply side, based on an approach in terms of income/leisure trade-off. - a second analysis focuses on one of the factors that may explain this paradox: since the phenomenon of exclusion of older workers from the labor market is particularly marked in developed countries, we propose to examine in detail the retirement and early retirement schemes that help explain the international inequalities in employment rates at high ages in five industrialized countries (United States, France, Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom) It is indeed possible that the collective trade-off between income and leisure will cease to be systematically in favour of earlier retirement, given the cost in terms of social transfers. But the problem remains at the level of labor demand. This leads us to wonder about the factors that can facilitate the retention of older workers in the workforce. In particular, we will explore the idea that this retention can only be achieved at the cost of a certain flexibility at the end of one's career. We will try to answer this question by analyzing the links between the employment rate at high ages and the evolution of wages in the years preceding retirement, and by presenting the Japanese model in more detail. Finally, the whole theme of the retirement age will be illustrated by a case study on Italy. It will be approached from three angles: demographics, pension system reform and the labor market.

The social contract binding together people of different resources, social status, family situation, opportunities and ages is based on a complex network of numerous economic transfers that determine the character and vocation of the social policy of a given country. The enormous redistribution that results from this reveals the big question about intergenerational equity: are there generations favoured by the redistribution carried out within social protection? According to the model of this study, equity in the sense of equality of relative discounted balances is preserved in the case of France, where the generations born before 2000 will receive benefits almost equal to their contributions. With the exception of an economic shock or an unforeseen deterioration in certain demographic or social indicators, the relative balances remain mostly positive for the current generations of workers. However, the decline in the performance of the schemes reflects a certain imbalance in the system, which seems to favour the generations born before 1960. in any case, the estimates refute the alarmist forecasts that speak of sacrificed generations. In the case of Greece, equity is seen from a different angle: that of the instantaneous sharing of resources between different generations. Through the cross-sectional comparison of living standards, the most favored cohorts are those born between 1940 and 1955. Earlier generations have benefited from progressively increasing proportions of global growth, but for recent generations the standard of living is continuously deteriorating.

The participation of married women in the labor force does not depend solely on economic variables (woman's salary, family income). It seems that the hypothesis that the presence of other people in the household is a potential source of childcare, and more specifically of pre-school childcare, thus favoring women's labor force participation, is verified. In fact, we still need to consider the role of childcare in deciding women's participation in the labor market. Finally, we find an unfavorable impact of the increase in the number of women in the labor force on the wage level of young workers.

While most demo-economic studies are conducted within a national framework, this study introduces the international dimension into the debate. Apart from partisan discussions of free trade or economic nationalism, it attempts to measure the determinants and structural effects of economic openness in sub-Saharan African countries.

This work proposes several demo-economic applications of micro-simulation methods, methods developed in the late 1950s in the United States. The first chapter first defines the general principles of micro-simulation, presents the different types of models based on this method and outlines the main advantages of this method. Then, a more detailed presentation of some existing models will allow a better understanding of the logic behind their design. Three applications will be the subject of the following chapters. The first is strictly demographic. It is concerned with the evolution of four-generation families. By taking a longitudinal perspective, which the use of microsimulation allows, it aims to measure the influence of recent and future changes in fertility and mortality, both in terms of intensity and timing, on the evolution of the probability of belonging to this type of family. The second application takes up this longitudinal perspective to describe a double biography of women during their retirement, their family life (presence or not of a spouse, children) and the evolution of their income during this period. The first biography provides a measure of the phenomenon of isolation as one advances in age, an isolation linked mainly to mortality. The second biography, which only microsimulation allows us to understand, gives the financial situation of individuals at the time of their retirement. The last application is professional demography. It shows how a microsimulation model can be applied to different modes of personnel management and looks at the implications of these different modes of management on the situation of a company.

Our work deals with demo-economic relations in an open world. We examine successively several aspects: the preferability of alternative movements of capital and migration, the influence of the choice of pension system in one country on that of another, the influence of the demographic factor on unemployment in the context of so-called "competitive" economies, as well as the possible use of immigration in a post-Keynesian analysis in France in the year 2000, and finally, the possible negative effects of population in the context of transborder pollution. The conclusion tries to formally update the concept of open demo-economic relationship (OEDR).