The future of pensions in France: evaluation of the impact of the 1993 to 2003 reforms using the ARTEMIS microsimulation model.

Summary The objective of the thesis is to measure the medium and long term consequences of the reform of private sector pensions, with unchanged legislation, and to carry out a comparative analysis of the effects of the 1993 and 2003 reforms on the level and distribution of future pensions by 2030. To this end, we construct and use a microsimulation model, the ARTEMIS model (Analysis of Private Sector Pensions by Microsimulation), based on the file of insured persons in the general old age insurance scheme of the social security system managed by the National Old Age Insurance Fund for Employees (CNAV). This scheme covers private sector employees, i.e. nearly two thirds of the French working population. This thesis is organized in two main parts. In the first part entitled "Microsimulation and pensions of the general scheme", we present the interest of microsimulation for the study of the pensions of the general scheme in the long term, as well as the main characteristics of this scheme. The second part on "The ARTEMIS microsimulation model and its results" describes the model, and then presents the simulations of the pensions of the general scheme for the year 2030 and their comparison with other available evaluation sources. We focus on the path of the generations 1935 to 1970. We analyze the effects of these reforms on total expenditures, as well as their redistributive consequences, taking into account individual career changes. Indeed, pension policy, like any social policy, is based on principles combining economic efficiency and redistribution.