BELKOUCH Hicham

This thesis proposes an evaluation of the pension system in Morocco and its ongoing reform process, using a dynamic microsimulation model. It is structured around two distinct and complementary parts that allow us to build the scenario of extending pension coverage for non-salaried workers. In the first part, we begin by studying the nature of the demographic changes facing the pension system, the way in which past reforms have tried to respond to them and the unresolved issues. Then, using data from the Haut-Commissariat au Plan, we carry out an empirical study that measures informal employment, identifies its characteristics and determinants, and examines the reasons for its existence, i.e., whether it is suffered or chosen. The second part of this thesis consists, in the first instance, in describing all the work carried out in the construction of the dynamic microsimulation model. We then develop a detailed explanation of the steps and techniques adopted and written in R language, using programming tools developed for the rewriting of the Destinie model of INSEE. Subsequently, we propose an evaluation of the last parametric reform of the Moroccan Pension Fund (2016), comparing it to the projected evolutions using the programmed model. Finally, we use the same model to simulate reform options to create pension coverage for informal workers.