GREULICH Angela

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Affiliations
  • 2014 - 2020
    Ecole d'économie de Paris
  • 2012 - 2020
    Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
  • 2016 - 2017
    Paris Jourdan sciences économiques
  • 2008 - 2018
    Institut national d'études démographiques
  • 2012 - 2017
    Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
  • 2008 - 2009
    University of Augsburg
  • 2008 - 2009
    Université de Pau et des pays de l’Adour
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2009
  • The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries.

    Nguyen thang DAO, Julio DAVILA, Angela GREULICH
    Journal of Population Economics | 2020
    No summary available.
  • The Age U-shape in Europe: The Protective Role of Partnership.

    Andrew e. CLARK, Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela GREULICH
    Vienna Yearbook of Population Research | 2020
    No summary available.
  • The Age U-shape in Europe: The Protective Role of Partnership.

    Andrew e. CLARK, Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela GREULICH
    2020
    We here ask whether the U-shaped relationship between life satisfaction and age is flatter for those who are partnered. This is the case in cross-section EU-SILC data, where the drop in life satisfaction from the teens to the 50s is almost four times larger for the non-partnered than for the partnered, whose life satisfaction essentially follows a slight downward trajectory with age. However, the same analysis in three panel datasets (BHPS, SOEP and HILDA) reveals a U-shape for both marital groups, although still somewhat flatter for the partnered than for the non-partnered. We suggest that the difference between the cross-section and panel results reflects compositional effects: there is in particular a significant shift of the relatively dissatisfied out of marriage in mid-life. These composition effects will flatten the U-shape in age for the partnered in cross-section data.
  • Essays on family policies and employment in Europe.

    Laurene THIL, Mathieu LEFEBVRE, Bertrand KOEBEL, Holger STICHNOTH, Angela GREULICH
    2020
    This thesis proposes four contributions on family policies and their links with mothers' employment in Europe. After an introductory Chapter 1, Chapter 2 presents the different issues and mechanisms of family policies in Europe. Chapter 3 focuses on the comparison of European countries according to the characteristics of their family policy system. Chapter 4 focuses on the factors influencing the labor supply of mothers in Europe. Finally, Chapter 5 looks at the determinants of the demand for different types of childcare services. Thus, after having defined and presented European family policies in a global way in the second chapter, we highlight the heterogeneity of these programs in Europe and propose a classification method in the third chapter. In the fourth chapter we test the effect of individual characteristics, family policies and gender norms on mothers' labour supply before concluding by focusing on one type of policy, namely childcare and the link with mothers' employment.
  • The Gender Gap in Education Investment and the Demographic Transition in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence.

    Thang nguyen DAO, Julio DAVILA, Angela GREULICH
    SSRN Electronic Journal | 2019
    No summary available.
  • Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela GREULICH, Gregory PONTHIERE
    Journal of Economic Theory | 2018
    During the last century, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a Unified Growth Theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for cohorts 1906–1975 of the Human Fertility Database.
  • Observe the number of children with EU-SILC data.

    Angela GREULICH, Aurelien DASRE, Karine GUERROUCHE
    Population | 2018
    No summary available.
  • Observing the Number of Children with EU-SILC: A Quantification of Biases.

    Angela GREULICH, Aurelien DASRE
    Population (English edition) | 2018
    No summary available.
  • Financing the Consumption of the Young and Old in France.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Carole BONNET, Xavier CHOJNICKI, Angela GREULICH, Jerome HUBERT, Julien NAVAUX, Najat EL MEKKAOUI
    Population and Development Review | 2018
    A BETTER UNDERSTANDING of the resource allocation across ages is fundamental to put in place welfare reforms in the context of population ageing. In times of major demographic change, the redistribution of resources between age groups and the funding of the economically inactive aged remains a recurring topic of public debate and a major public policy concern in OECD countries. Governments search for a policy mix that will improve the quality of life of the elderly, while at the same time investing in the future of the young and reducing the fiscal burden on the working population. Life expectancy and education requirements are increasing while budget constraints are tightening. This potentially creates tension in the allocation of resources between age groups (Preston 1984. Lee and Mason 2011a). Some authors have shown the negative impact that a growing share of elderly could have on education spending for the young (Poterba 1997, 1998. Harris et al. 2001). The compact between the generations could suffer as a result (United Nations 2013a. Chen et al. 2018).
  • Who pays for the consumption of young and old?

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Carole BONNET, Xavier CHOJNICKI, Najat EL MEKKAOUIDE FREITAS, Angela GREULICH, Jerome HUBERT, Julien NAVAUX
    2018
    This article provides a comprehensive overview of how the funding of consumption at different ages is shared between the State, the individual and the family. By applying the National Transfer Accounts method for France, we developed a unique database to analyze how the funding of consumption is secured at each age, how its structure has changed over time, and how the consumption is financed in France compared to that of a set of other developed countries. We find that the elderly in France finance themselves increasingly by their own means, even though public funding of this age group remains significant in France in comparison to other countries. Conversely, the young rely more and more on the State to finance their consumption. Within our sample, France is the country where the young benefited most from public transfers.
  • Who pays for the consumption of young and old ?

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Carole BONNET, Angela GREULICH, Jerome HUBERT, Julien NAVAUX, Najat EL MEKKAOUI
    Population and Development Review | 2018
    No summary available.
  • Development, Fertility and Childbearing Age: A Unified Growth Theory.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela GREULICH, Gregory PONTHIERE
    2018
    During the last century, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a Unified Growth Theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for cohorts 1906-1975 of the Human Fertility Database.
  • Having a second child and access to childcare: evidence from european countries.

    Paula e. GOBBI, Angela GREULICH, Hippolyte D ALBIS, Hippolyte D'ALBIS
    Journal of Demographic Economics | 2017
    This paper shows that differences in fertility across European countries mainly emerge due to fewer women having two children in low-fertility countries. It further suggests that childcare services are an important determinant for the transition to a second child to occur. The theoretical framework we propose suggests that (i) in countries where childcare coverage is low, there is a U-shaped relationship between a couple's probability of having a second child and the woman's potential wage, whereas (ii) in countries with easy access to childcare, this probability is positively related with the woman's potential wage. Data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) confirm these implications when estimating a woman's probability of having a second child as a function of education. This implies that middle-income women are the most affected ones by the lack of access to formal and subsidized childcare.
  • Work/life balance policy in Germany: Promoting equal partnership in families.

    Willem ADEMA, Chris CLARKE, Valerie FREY, Angela GREULICH, Hyunsook KIM, Pia RATTENHUBER, Olivier THEVENON
    International Social Security Review | 2017
    No summary available.
  • Development, fertility and childbearing age: A unified growth theory.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela GREULICH, Gregory PONTHIERE
    2017
    During the last two centuries, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a unified growth theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in higher education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in higher education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for Swedish cohorts born between 1876 and 1966.
  • Employment and second childbirths in Europe.

    Angela GREULICH, Olivier THEVENON, Mathilde GUERGOAT LARIVIERE
    Population -Paris | 2017
    This article studies the effects of women's employment on second births in contemporary Europe. By mobilizing longitudinal data from the European Union's Statistics of Income and Living conditions (EU-SILC) and aggregated data from the OECD Family Database, we find evidence that being in employment significantly increases women's probability of second childbirth. The magnitude of the effect differs, however, among individuals. The positive impact is stronger for highly educated women and for women with partners who are themselves in employment. Dual employment thus favours family enlargement from one to two children more strongly than other employment configurations within the couple. Multilevel models also reveal that the positive effect of employment on the transition to second childbirth is reinforced in countries with high childcare coverage. The development of childcare at the country level - the most effective family policy to secure women's employment - increases the individual probability for women of having a second child, whereas other types of institutional support such as leave schemes or lump-sum cash transfers do not have such a positive effect.
  • Employment and second birth in Europe.

    Angela GREULICH, Olivier THEVENON, Mathilde GUERGOAT LARIVIERE, Karine GUERROUCHE
    Population | 2017
    This paper investigates the effects of women's employment on second births in contemporary Europe. Using longitudinal data from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) from 2003 to 2011, and aggregate data from the OECD Family Database, we identify evidence that being employed significantly increases the probability of a second birth among women. However, the magnitude of the effect differs across individuals. The positive effect is more pronounced among the most educated women and those whose spouse is employed. The fact that both spouses are working thus favors the expansion of the family from one to two children more than other configurations. Multilevel models also show that the positive effect of employment on the transition to a second birth is stronger in countries with a high supply of child care services. The expansion of such services at the country level, which is the most effective family policy measure for ensuring women's labor force participation, increases the individual probability that a woman will have a second child, which is less true for other types of institutional support (parental leave systems, lump sum allowances, etc.).
  • Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare: Evidence from European Countries.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Paula GOBBI, Angela GREULICH
    2017
    This paper shows that differences in fertility across European countries mainly emerge due to fewer women having two children in low fertility countries. It further suggests that childcare services are an important determinant for the transition to a second child to occur. The theoretical framework we propose suggests that: (i) in countries where childcare coverage is low, there is a U-shaped relationship between a couple's probability of having a second child and the woman's potential wage while (ii) in countries with easy access to childcare, this probability is positively related with the woman's potential wage. Data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) confirm these implications when estimating a woman's probability of having a second child as a function of education. This implies that middle income women are the most affected ones by the lack of access to formal and subsidized childcare.
  • Education, Labour, and the Demographic Consequences of Birth Postponement in Europe.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela GREULICH, Gregory PONTHIERE
    2017
    This paper questions the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe. Starting from the fact that there is no obvious link between the timing of first births and fertility levels in Europe, we deliver some indication that under certain circumstances, birth postponement involves the potential of facilitating rather than impedes starting a family. We apply a synthetic cohort approach and distinguish between different socio-economic determinants of the timing of first births by using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). Data is compiled specifically to reduce endogeneity and to eliminate structure effects. We find that the probability of becoming a mother is higher for those women who postpone first childbirth due to education and career investment in comparison to those who postpone due to unrealized labour market integration. Educated and economically active women certainly postpone first childbirth in comparison to women who are less educated and who are not working, but they end up with a higher probability of starting a family in comparison to women who are less educated and not working. The article contributes to the academic discussion of the circumstances that may lead birth postponement to result in higher fertility for younger cohorts in European countries.
  • Fertility Analysis with EU-SILC: A Quantification of Measurement Bias.

    Angela GREULICH, Aurelien DASRE
    2017
    The European Union Statistics on Income and Living Condition (EU-SILC) database is increasingly used in demographic analysis, due to its large country coverage, the availability of harmonized socioeconomic measures and the possibility to merge partners. However, so far there exists no comprehensive analysis of the representativeness of fertility behavior reported by EU-SILC. This paper quantifies the quality of fertility measures in EU-SILC. We compare several fertility measures obtained with EU-SILC to unbiased measures from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) for several European countries, by applying a longitudinal as well as a cross-sectional perspective. We show that EU-SILC underestimates completed fertility mainly because the questionnaire does not ask about the number of children ever born to a woman/man, and we identify significant socioeconomic differentials in this measurement bias. Measures of periodic fertility behavior are biased downward mainly due to attrition, while births of order one for ages 20-29 are particularly underreported. However, we find no evidence for socio-economic differentials in attrition. Our results suggest that for the majority of European countries, Eu-SILC can be used for demographic analysis when respecting the measures of precaution mentioned in this article. These contain for example applying a retrospective approach and differentiating by rotation groups when calculating aggregate measures of periodic fertility differentiated by socio-economic groups.
  • Combating domestic violence against women in Turkey. The role of women's economic empowerment.

    Aurelien DASRE, Angela GREULICH, Inan CEREN
    2017
    This paper identifies motors and barriers for combatting domestic violence against women in Turkey – a country where modernism and conservatism are in constant interplay. We combine information from the Demographic Health Surveys and the Turkish Domestic Violence Survey and distinguish between controlling behavior, physical and sexual violence. Our empirical analysis tests how far a woman's intra-household decision making power (as measured by her education, her activity status, her income etc.) bears the potential to reduce her risk of experiencing domestic violence in Turkey. The analysis takes into account contextual factors as well as partner and household characteristics. We find that women's participation in the labor market does not, on its' own, reduce women's risk of experiencing intimate partner violence, but an egalitarian share of economic resources between spouses in likely to protect women against domestic violence. This finding has two important implications: First, higher education enabling women to access formal wage employment allows women not only to gain economic independence, but also to freely choose their partner. Second, unstable economic conditions that harm earning opportunities for men are an important risk factor for couples to experience conflits that can result in domestic violence against women. Against the background of the recent economic crisis that comes hand in hand with a backlash of gender and family norms in Turkey, our results highlight the need of policy action in this field.
  • The quality of periodic fertility measures in EU-SILC.

    Angela GREULICH, Aurelien DASRE
    Demographic Research | 2017
    Background: The European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) are increasingly used in demographic analysis, due to their large country coverage, the availability of harmonized socioeconomic measures, and the possibility to merge partners. However, so far there exists no comprehensive analysis of the representativeness of the fertility behavior reported by EU-SILC. Objective: This paper quantifies the quality of periodic fertility measures in EU-SILC. Methods: We compare periodic fertility measures obtained with EU-SILC to unbiased measures from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) for several European countries, by applying a cross-sectional perspective. Results: We show that EU-SILC measures of periodic fertility are biased downward, mainly due to attrition, while births of order one for ages 20‒29 are particularly underreported. However, we find no evidence of socioeconomic differentials in attrition. Conclusions: Our results suggest that for the majority of European countries, EU-SILC can be used for the analysis of childbearing behavior when respecting the measures of precaution mentioned in this article. Contribution: These precautions contain, for example, applying a retrospective approach and differentiating by rotation groups when calculating aggregate measures of periodic fertility.
  • Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela GREULICH, Gregory PONTHIERE
    Demographic Research | 2017
    Background: This article questions the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe. Objective: Starting from the fact that there is no obvious link between the timing of first births and fertility levels in Europe, we find that under certain circumstances, birth postponement potentially facilitates rather than impedes starting a family. Methods: We apply a synthetic cohort approach and distinguish between different socioeconomic determinants of the timing of first births by using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). Data is compiled specifically to reduce endogeneity and to eliminate structure effects. Results: We find that the probability of becoming a mother is higher for women who postpone first childbirth due to education and career investment than for women who postpone due to unrealized labour market integration. Conclusions: Educated and economically active women certainly postpone first childbirth in comparison to women who are less educated and who are not working, but they end up with a higher probability of starting a family. Contribution: The article contributes to the academic discussion of circumstances that may lead to birth postponement resulting in higher fertility for younger cohorts in European countries.
  • Is the "fertility rebound" in developed countries an automatic phenomenon or the privilege of a few privileged people?

    Angela GREULICH
    Revue d'économie financière | 2016
    No summary available.
  • Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?

    Angela GREULICH, Olivier THEVENON, Mathilde GUERGOAT LARIVIERE
    2016
    This article gives evidence that differences in completed fertility among European countries emerge mainly as a result of fewer women having a second child in low fertility countries and analyses the impact of women’s employment on the probability of second child birth. With longitudinal data from the European Survey of Income and Living conditions (EU-SILC) and aggregated data from the OECD Family Database, we find that, on average within European countries, women in stable employment have a significantly higher probability of second childbirth than inactive or unemployed women. However, while female employment generally favours a transition to second childbirth in high-fertility countries, the impact is heterogenous in low-fertility countries. This points to a work-life balance conflict that is stronger in low-fertility countries. To address this issue, multilevel models are run to compare the role of various policies: not surprisingly, they show that childcare policies – which are the most effective policies to secure women’s employment – are the most likely to encourage couples to enlarge their families and that the positive effect of stable employment on fertility is reinforced by this policy.
  • Securing women's employment: a fertility booster in European countries?

    Angela GREULICH, Olivier THEVENON, Mathilde GUERGOAT LARIVIERE
    2016
    This article gives evidence that differences in completed fertility among European countries emerge mainly as a result of fewer women having a second child in low fertility countries and analyses the impact of women's employment on the probability of second child birth. With longitudinal data from the European Survey of Income and Living conditions (EU-SILC) and aggregated data from the OECD Family Database, we find that, on average within European countries, women in stable employment have a significantly higher probability of second childbirth than inactive or unemployed women. However, while female employment generally favours a transition to second childbirth in high-fertility countries, the impact is heterogenous in low-fertility countries. This points to a work-life balance conflict that is stronger in low-fertility countries. To address this issue, multilevel models are run to compare the role of various policies: not surprisingly, they show that childcare policies – which are the most effective policies to secure women's employment – are the most likely to encourage couples to enlarge their families and that the positive effect of stable employment on fertility is reinforced by this policy.
  • Two or three children? Turkish fertility at a crossroads.

    Angela GREULICH, Aurelien DASRE, Ceren INAN
    Population and Development Review | 2016
    In Turkey, female employment and education are still relatively low, while fertility levels are high compared to other European countries. However, Turkey stands on the brink of an important social transition. Increasing female education and employment are being accompanied by important decreases in fertility. By mobilizing census and survey data (SILC), we find that parents’ decision for or against a third child is of particular importance for fertility levels in Turkey. Graduate women participating in the formal labor market are most likely to decide against larger family size in comparison to inactive or unemployed women. Their contribution to household income seems to be important and cannot be given up, especially if the couple already has two children. Policies enabling women to combine work and family life, which have been proven effective in other European countries, emerge therefore as useful to avoid fertility declining below replacement levels in Turkey.
  • Is the rebound in fertility in developed countries automatic or the privilege of a privileged few?

    Angela GREULICH
    Revue d'économie financière | 2016
    No summary available.
  • Multiple imputation for demographic hazard models with left-censored predictor variables: Application to employment duration and fertility in the EU-SILC.

    Michael RENDALL, Angela GREULICH
    Demographic Research | 2016
    OBJECTIVE A common problem when using panel data is that individuals’ histories are incompletely known at the first wave. We demonstrate the use of multiple imputation as a method to handle this partial information, and thereby increase statistical power without compromising the model specification. METHODS Using EU-SILC panel data to investigate full-time employment as a predictor of partnered women’s risk of first birth in Poland, we first multiply imputed employment status two years earlier to cases for which employment status is observed only in the most recent year. We then derived regression estimates from the full, multiply imputed sample, and compared the coefficient and standard error estimates to those from complete-case estimation with employment status observed both one and two years earlier. RESULTS Relative to not being full-time employed, having been full-time employed for two or more years was a positive and statistically significant predictor of childbearing in the multiply imputed sample, but was not significant when using complete-case estimation. The variance about the ‘two or more years’ coefficient was one third lower in the multiply imputed sample than in the complete-case sample. CONTRIBUTION By using MI for left-censored observations, researchers using panel data may specify a model that includes characteristics of state or event histories without discarding observations for which that information is only partially available. Using conventional methods, either the analysis model must be simplified to ignore potentially important information about the state or event history (risking biased estimation), or cases with partial information must be dropped from the analytical sample (resulting in inefficient estimation).
  • Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare: Evidence from European Countries.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela GREULICH, Paula GOBBI
    2015
    This paper shows that dierences in fertility across European countries mainly emerge due to fewer women having two children in low fertility countries. It further suggests that childcare services are an important determinant for the transition to a second child to occur. The theoretical framework we propose suggests that: (i) in countries where childcare coverage is low, there is a U-shaped relationship between a couple's probability to have a second child and female's wage, while ((ii)) in countries with easy access to childcare, this probability is positively related with the woman's potential wage. Data from the European Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU- SILC) conrm these implications when estimating a woman's probability of having a second child as a function of education. This implies that middle income women are the most aected ones by the lack of childcare coverage.
  • Having a child later: Socio-demographic issues of delayed births.

    Hippolyte D ALBIS, Angela LUCI GREULICH, Gregory PONTHIERE
    2015
    Changes in the birth rate are most often measured by a single indicator, the number of children per woman. However, the birth calendar, i.e., the ages at which a mother gives birth to her children, sheds useful light on sociodemographic dynamics. In particular, the age of childbirth is a social marker, as it increases with the parents' education and income levels. Today, among those with the fewest social prospects, we often find girl-mothers. It is clear that the timing of births is naturally linked to the other important decisions that punctuate the life cycle: the number of children, of course, but also the time devoted to education and the role of women in the labor market. Although there is a tendency to be alarmed by the postponement of births, the ages of childbearing are not variables or objectives of public policy. in fact, the opposite is true: they react indirectly to certain policies, and can thus cancel out their effects. In this booklet, the birth calendar is used to read certain social, economic and demographic dynamics specific to European societies and, in particular, to French and German societies. We put into perspective the phenomenon of postponed births that has characterized European demography for several decades by analyzing precisely its motives and implications.
  • Having a child later: socio-demographic issues of delayed births.

    Hippolyte d ALBIS, Angela GREULICH, Gregory PONTHIERE
    2015
    The back cover states: "For several decades, the age of childbirth has been declining. Based on demographic and economic data from twenty-eight European countries, the authors analyze the causes and consequences of this postponement of births, with particular emphasis on France and Germany. They identify two predominant factors: the length of mothers' studies and the stability of their professional situation. The age of childbirth is a social marker that allows an original reading of the dynamics specific to each country. This booklet shows that the decline in the age of childbirth is not, in general, associated with a decline in fertility, even if Germany constitutes an interesting counter-example. This sheds light on the difficult question of the effectiveness of pro-birth policies and their effects on individual decisions about the age of childbirth.
  • Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?

    Angela GREULICH, Olivier THEVENON, Mathilde GUERGOAT LARIVIERE
    2015
    This article gives evidence that differences in completed fertility among European countries emerge mainly as a result of fewer women having a second child in low fertility countries and analyses the impact of women’s employment on the probability of second child birth. With longitudinal data from the European Survey of Income and Living conditions (EU-SILC) and aggregated data from the OECD Family Database, we find that, on average within European countries, women in stable employment have a significantly higher probability of second childbirth than inactive or unemployed women. However, while female employment generally favours a transition to second childbirth in high-fertility countries, the impact is heterogenous in low-fertility countries. This points to a work-life balance conflict that is stronger in low-fertility countries. To address this issue, multilevel models are run to compare the role of various policies: not surprisingly, they show that childcare policies – which are the most effective policies to secure women’s employment – are the most likely to encourage couples to enlarge their families and that the positive effect of stable employment on fertility is reinforced by this policy.
  • Fertility Transition in Turkey—Who is Most at Risk of Deciding against Child Arrival?

    Angela GREULICH, Aurelien DASRE, Ceren INAN
    Policy Research Working Papers | 2015
    In Turkey, female employment and education are still relatively low, while fertility levels are high compared with other European countries. However, Turkey stands just at the edge of an important social transition. Increasing female education and employment come along with important decreases in fertility. By mobilizing census and survey data, this paper finds that fertility decreases are mainly caused by fewer transitions to a third birth. Graduate women participating in the formal labor market are most at risk of deciding against child arrival in comparison with inactive or unemployed women. The third rank is particularly concerned, as women’s income contribution seems to be crucial for many families that already have two children, and the arrival of a third child risks reducing or stopping women’s working activities in the absence of institutional childcare support. Policies enabling women to combine work and family life, which have been proven effective in other European countries, emerge as useful to avoid a further fertility decline below replacement level in Turkey.
  • Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007).

    Olivier THEVENON, Angela LUCI GREULICH
    European Journal of Population | 2014
    In the light of the recent reversal of fertility trends in several highly developed countries, we investigate the impact of economic development and its components on fertility in OECD countries from 1960 to 2007. We find that the strong negative correlation between GDP per capita and fertility does no longer hold for high levels of per capita economic output. the relation instead seems to turn into positive from a certain threshold level of economic development on. Survival of an inverse J-shaped association between GDP per capita and fertility is found when controlling for birth postponement, omitted variable bias, non-stationarity and endogeneity. However, gaps between actual and predicted fertility rates show implicitly the importance of factors influencing fertility above and over per capita income. By decomposing GDP per capita into several components, we identify female employment as co-varying factor for the fertility rebound that can be observed in several highly developed countries. Pointing out to important differences with regard to the compatibility between childbearing and female employment, our results suggest that fertility increases are likely to be small if economic development is not accompanied by institutional changes that improve parents' opportunities to combine work and family life.
  • Multiple imputation for demographic hazard models with left-censored predictor variables.

    Angela GREULICH, Michael RENDALL
    2014
    A common problem when using panel data is that an individual’s history is incompletely known at the first wave. We show that multiple imputation, the method commonly used for data that are missing due to non-response, may also be used to impute these data that are “missing by design.” Our application is to a woman’s duration of fulltime employment as a predictor of her risk of first birth. We multiply-impute employment status two years earlier to “incomplete” cases for which employment status is observed only in the most recent year. We then pool these “completed” cases with the “complete” cases to derive regression estimates for the full sample. Relative to not being fulltime employed, having been fulltime-employed for two or more years is a positive and statistically significant predictor of childbearing whereas having just entered fulltime employment is not. The fulltime-employment duration parameter variances are about one third lower in the multiply-imputed sample than in the complete-data sample, and only in the multiply-imputed sample does the employment-duration coefficient attain statistical significance.
  • Corporate schemes for families.

    Angela GREULICH, Marie therese LETABLIER, Delphine BROCHARD, Marie noelle AUBERGER
    2013
    This study was financed by the IRES Agency OBJECT The objective of this research is to list the measures and services offered by companies to help their employees not only to reconcile work and family life, but more broadly to fulfill their parental responsibilities. The commitment of companies in this area is strongly regulated by legislation and by contractual provisions. It is the responsibility of the social partners, employers via human resources departments, trade unions and works councils through their social and cultural activities. The objective is also to understand how these provisions relating to support for parenthood are negotiated, what the stakes are in these negotiations and how the measures are implemented. Finally, the aim is to identify how the issues related to the commitment of companies to support their employees who are parents are perceived and linked to other challenges such as, for example, professional equality between men and women or quality of life at work. METHODS This study is divided into two parts. The first part, which is intended to be introductory, establishes a statistical framework for support measures for the exercise of family responsibilities in companies. This quantitative section is based on the results of surveys conducted at the European level by Eurofound, or at the national level. The second, and main, part of the study aims to characterize in more detail the conditions under which the schemes and benefits are set up, and to identify their impact on the beneficiary employees. To this end, a qualitative survey was conducted among a sample of companies active in this field. An initial series of interviews with federal officials made it possible to identify the way in which the issue of support for parenthood is understood in seven professional branches. Some thirty interviews were then conducted in seventeen companies with CFDT union representatives and CFDT representatives on the works council, and, where possible, with management representatives. Most of these companies are large and belong to a group. Their profile is very diverse with regard to their sector of activity, their organization and the type of workforce employed, more or less qualified and more or less feminized. The sample does not aim to be statistically representative, but rather to identify innovative practices and to collect the arguments developed by union players and management to justify their commitments and practices. RESULTS The study highlights the great diversity of practices in terms of support for parenthood. It highlights the role of the legal and conventional framework. It differentiates between different corporate commitment regimes, and shows that these regimes are dependent on historical gains in the provision of benefits, forms of work organization and the type of workforce employed.
  • Study on the distribution of taxes and transfers between generations in France.

    2013
    The contract calls for a study providing a complete overview of intergenerational transfers for France over a 30-year time horizon. It uses an original methodology, that of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA), which is now an international reference. The general idea is to compare what each cohort, defined as all children born in a given year, consumes and produces on a given date. By consumption, we mean consumption of market goods but also of public goods/services such as education or health. This consumption is compared with labor income (including employee and employer social security contributions) to define the cohorts that "subsidize" the cohorts that consume more than they produce. This method provides a very complete picture of all the transfers between generations in the course of a year and their deformation over time. The work defined in the contract has been carried out. The main part concerned the construction of a profile of surpluses and deficits over the life cycle, i.e. the difference at each age between labour income and private and public consumption. This was done for all years from 1979 to 2005. A gender decomposition of the "life-cycle profile" was also carried out for the period considered. The main conclusions of this study are as follows. Despite the very important economic, social and political changes that French society has undergone since the end of the 1980s, the share of transfers to those under 20 and over 60 in GDP has been remarkably stable. They reflect a collective choice for a certain equality between the ages, when the variable of interest is consumption. Moreover, when limited to market goods and services, transfers favor the over-60s over the under-20s and, among the over-60s, women over men. When domestic production is included, the situation is reversed and it is young people and men over 60 who receive the most transfers.
  • The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries.

    Angela LUCI GREULICH, Olivier THEVENON
    European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie | 2013
    We examine how strongly fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy instruments on fertility, using macro panel data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982-2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence on average, suggesting that the combination of these forms of support for working parents during their children's early years is likely to facilitate parents' choice to have children. Policy levers do not all have the same weight, however: in-cash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the provision of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Moreover, we find that the influence of each policy measure varies across different family policy contexts. Our findings are robust after controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time-lagged fertility reactions and for different aspects of national contexts, such as female labour market participation, unemployment, labour market protection and the proportion of children born out of marriage.
  • For an effective family policy.

    Angela LUCI, Hippolyte D ALBIS
    Problèmes économiques | 2013
    No summary available.
  • Women's labour market participation interacting with macroeconomic growth and family policies.

    Angela LUCI
    2009
    This PhD thesis in economics shows that women's labour market participation, macroeconomic growth and familypolicies are closely linked to each other. Whereas there exists clear theoretical and empirical evidence that female labour market participation unambiguously promotes GDP growth, the inverse impact of GDP growth on female labour market participation is not as clear in the existing literature. While some economists assume a strictly positive impact of growth on female labour market participation, recent studies suggest that growth decreases female labour market participation at early stages of economic development and increases it at later stages only. The convex impact, also known as "feminisation U" hypothesis, has not yet been proven empirically, as existing time series and cross country studies do not offer precise results so far. I test the "feminisation U" hypothesis based on panel data that spans over 180 countries and over 40 years, which allows to adequately take into account endogeneity problems. The analysis confirms the "feminisation U" hypothesis and makes clear that simply relying on macroeconomic growth is not suffiecient to promote female labour market participation. Equalising institutions that explicitly promote women's, and especially mothers' labour market participation are necessary not only in developing but also in industrialised countries. Yet, the analysis shows further that in most European countries, the redistributive character of several family policy instruments risks discouraging mothers' labour supply. Hence, it is essential to create a set of coherent family policy instruments that manage to simultaneously prevent families from income poverty while encouraging women's employment and fertiliy at the same time.
  • Women's labour market participation interacting with macroeconomic growth and family policies.

    Angela GREULICH, Jacques LE CACHEUX, Anita b. PFAFF
    2009
    No summary available.
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