Prospective mortality analyses: actuarial and biomedical approaches.

Summary The human lifespan has been increasing in the world for the last few centuries. This increase has been greater than predicted by specialists who have set limits. Despite significant uncertainties about the future of longevity, the biology of aging and its applications seem to be on the way to lowering mortality rates in old age, similar to the drop in infant mortality rates 150 years ago. The pharmaceutical industry is becoming aware of the potential of biomedical innovations stemming from the biology of aging, buying up biotechs and developing in-house teams. However, the actuarial tables, like the Lee Carter model, tend to predict an artificial deceleration of longevity and the calculated risks are far from representing major advances in the biology of aging. Future mortality models are developed here without producing this deceleration. It appears that an increase of about one quarter per year has so far been a better predictor than the trends in each country. Other models predict accelerations. We estimate the impacts on pensions. Ongoing pharmaceutical efforts to apply the results of biomedical research can be feared because of their impacts on pensions. We study the extent to which a longevity mega-fund can both help finance funded pensions and a large number of pharmaceutical developments: the pooling of clinical risks can financially capture longevity-related biomedical successes.