Optimal diversification and the transition to net zero : a methodological framework for measuring climate goal alignment of investor portfolios.

Summary The thesis aims to develop a framework for measuring the alignment of financial portfolios with climate goals, taking both traditional modern portfolio theory and financial risk analysis frameworks, as well as climate science, as a starting point. It is the first attempt to develop scientific benchmarks for the financial portfolio. The framework uses as a starting point the concept of "optimal diversification" based on modern portfolio theory and the efficient market hypothesis. According to this theory, optimal strategies involve buying the "market portfolio." It postulates that this strategy cannot, however, be aligned with a portfolio strategy aligned with a 2°C scenario. Such a science-based portfolio strategy may, however, make sense for financial institutions that consider multiple objectives (financial and non-financial) or financial institutions that believe that markets are mispricing the financial risks associated with the transition to a 2°C economy. Strategies associated with 2°C can outperform the market. Under the assumption that the transition to a low-carbon economy has a risk factor, for which the thesis provides a series of theoretical proofs, portfolio strategies can seek to buy the "2°C market" by seeking and managing "optimal diversification." The model thus extends the logic of diversification to reduce the risk, inherent in modern portfolio theory, from the asset class to the sector and technology level. After the model was developed, it was tested by a series of insurance companies, asset managers and portfolio managers. In total, over 250 institutional investors have applied the model at the time of publication. In addition, the model has been tested on approximately 10,000 funds. In addition, two European central banks have applied the model internally as part of a 2°C scenario analysis of their regulated entities (pension funds and insurance companies). In a survey of 25 investors, 88% said the framework was as relevant or more relevant than existing climate assessments, and 88% said they were likely or very likely to use the methodology going forward.