Monetary policies and exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Summary The main objective of the authorities in Sub-Saharan Africa is to create sustainable growth in light of recent growth slowdowns. Sustainable growth could be achieved by rehabilitating internal and external vulnerabilities to avoid macroeconomic disruptions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, internal vulnerabilities stem from poor governance, ineffective economic policy choices, and other factors such as civil wars. Their external vulnerabilities are related to their high debt and trade dependence. Therefore, this thesis focuses on mitigating both vulnerabilities. The first chapter proposes a comparison of the resilience of two monetary policies to several types of shocks. It considers inflation targeting in Ghana and South Africa and the currency board in the WAEMU while simulating shocks on the FPAS model. The second chapter focuses on the objective of addressing external vulnerabilities. A strategy for anchoring the nominal and real exchange rate regime to stabilize the cost of debt and promote trade competitiveness is proposed. We solve a general equilibrium model to find its main determinants while safeguarding our results using SVAR and MS-VAR estimations. Thus, the third chapter solves for internal vulnerabilities. We test the role of a fiscal policy-driven monetary policy and the existence of a large parallel exchange rate in the propagation of chronic high inflation in a context of civil disorder by estimating an SVAR and a VECM in the fragile state of Sudan.