The role of expectations on the behavior of savers.

Summary This thesis studies the formation of expectations and their influence on the consumption and portfolio choices of French savers. First, we study the wealth effect, i.e. the effect of changes in financial and real estate assets on household consumption. During the 2008-2009 crisis, which affected wealth and expectations, households that suffered losses on their real estate or financial wealth were more likely to reduce their consumption. Next, we address the heterogeneity of expectations about stock returns. Specifically, we show that personal experience plays a key role in the formation of expectations. Indeed, those who have experienced a gain on their financial assets in the past anticipate a higher stock return. However, the results also highlight the importance of financial knowledge in the formation of expectations. Finally, we examine the extent to which heterogeneity in expectations can explain differences in portfolio choice. In this context, we show that individuals who anticipate a higher stock market return hold a larger share of stocks in their wealth. Nevertheless, the effect of expected risk is not significant, contrary to the predictions of standard portfolio choice theory. Finally, the imprecision of responses, which we interpret as an indicator of the respondent's confidence in his or her own expectations, is negatively correlated with the share of stocks in wealth.