Health spending and labor productivity in an aging economy.

Summary The French population is aging and will continue to do so in the future. The negative consequences of this demographic change on the economy are well known. However, the extent of these consequences will depend, among other things, on the evolution of labor productivity. In order to analyze the future evolution of labor productivity in France, this thesis focused on the role of health care expenditures in the economy. Indeed, on the one hand, health expenditures, by improving the health of the population, increase labor productivity. On the other hand, they promote the aging of the population by increasing life expectancy. Thus, this thesis aims to verify whether the productivity gains generated by health expenditures are sufficient to cancel out the negative effects of population aging. We theoretically demonstrate that private health expenditures generate a positive externality improving labor efficiency and consequently labor productivity (Chapter I). However, our empirical results underline that this positive effect is not significant when we consider health expenditures that remain at the expense of patients (Chapter II). The productivity gains allowed by the future improvement of French health are then measured using a generational accounting model. The productivity gains appear to be significant but insufficient to offset the negative effects of demographic ageing (Chapter III). This observation is confirmed by the results provided by our general equilibrium model (Chapter IV).