Investment choices under uncertainty of distribution system operators (DSOs) in Europe to 2030.

Summary Distribution remains the least studied segment of the electricity sector. However, for the past two or three years, there has been much discussion about possible structural changes due to the emergence of smart technologies: in the next few years, these could call into question the current business models of the DSOs and their regulation methods. But many uncertainties weigh on their investment choices. This thesis aims to anticipate the evolution of DSO business models in Europe by 2030, taking into account technological, macroeconomic and geographical parameters. It proposes an original theoretical and analytical vision, first introducing the notion of "natural potential technologies" to study the optimal development of different technologies by geographical context and by reference scenario. Based on these results, it then defines different possible evolutions of distribution activities. The cross-referencing of these futures with the different investment strategies that can be envisaged for DSOs allows to define the future business models of European DSOs according to the combinations of smart technologies deployed and the contrasting geographical contexts. In its last part, the thesis focuses on the foreseeable changes in the DSO/regulator relationship via a game theory formalization. Finally, based on Brian Arthur's theoretical studies, the thesis identifies the various lock-in effects that could hinder the emergence of smart technologies and possible solutions.