Three essays on bank excess liquidity in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC).

Summary This thesis is structured around three essays devoted to the analysis of bank excess liquidity in CEMAC countries. The first essay sought to identify the determinants of excess liquidity in CEMAC member countries over the period 1985 to 2002. The GMM estimation used showed that excess liquidity in Central Africa derives both from the precautionary behavior of commercial banks and from exogenous factors. The great prudence of banks can be explained by the experience of the financial crisis of the 1980s, the restructuring of the banking system, the instability of deposits and a very risky economic context. The upturn in oil prices is fuelling excess reserves due to the low absorption capacity of the countries in the zone. In the second test, we identified the most operational transmission channels in Central Africa. VAR modeling showed that the interest rate is the weakest channel. It is precisely the lack of a financial market that does not allow for the recycling of bank liquidity and the transmission of monetary policy. In the third test, an inflation forecasting model was developed for one of the CEMAC member countries, namely Chad. The sensitivity analysis undertaken by the Bayesian approach indicates that excess liquidity would exert inflationary pressure in the zone.