Determinants of energy demand in the tertiary sector in France: a technical-economic analysis.

Summary In view of the current challenges represented by the increase in energy prices, the gradual depletion of fossil fuels and environmental damage, energy demand analysis is a prerequisite for the design and deployment of energy demand management programs. The tertiary sector, which is heterogeneous, diffuse and a low energy consumer, has been little studied until now. However, it is an important issue due to the rapid growth of its energy consumption. The objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of the energy demand of the tertiary sector in France. To this end, we rely on a technical-economic approach. Energy consumption, disaggregated by branch and by energy use, is considered as a response to given socio-economic needs. We distinguish two categories of determinants: energy determinants and socio-economic determinants. An analysis using a decomposition method allows us to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of the main drivers to the past evolution of energy demand in the French tertiary sector. This analysis shows the importance of the activity as a determinant and the essential role of structural phenomena. This thesis also demonstrates the contribution of a detailed approach to the understanding of the determinants of energy demand in the tertiary sector, in particular through a prospective exercise applied to the trade branch.