Individual trajectories of redundant workers: econometric evaluation of an active employment policy.

Summary Active policies maintain incentives to seek employment while promoting the acquisition of new skills. In France, conversion agreements help people who have been made redundant to reintegrate into the workforce. The evaluation of the scheme focuses on four dimensions. The econometric analysis shows that the candidates are not the individuals who have the most difficulty in finding a new job (educated, qualified, low spatial constraints). Three criteria of reintegration quality are explored: duration of unemployment, nature of the contract and salary. The econometric models control for selectivity on the unobservables associated with the transition to the agreement. The program has positive effects on these three efficiency indicators, but only for a small proportion of beneficiaries. A majority of non-participants would have had an increased probability of returning to stable employment if they had participated. The program was poorly targeted.