The transformations occurring in our modern societies are accelerating. Whether one is a public or private actor, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make decisions at a macro level—for example, at national or regional scale—because the diversity of micro-level projects, such as a local association initiative in a village, can render high-level decision-making frameworks ineffective. The ecological dimension, in particular, has come to the forefront as a variable capable of significantly shaping decisions.

Drawing on microeconomics, mean-field game theory, and artificial intelligence applied to new data, and grounding these tools in territorial dynamics, this Research Initiative aims to:

• Equip territories and their stakeholders with diagnostic tools enabling precise and systemic analysis of collected data;
• Leverage locally available data to model human strategies and behaviours, in order to simulate the local impacts of funding, urban planning, and the deployment of new services or infrastructures, with the objective of supporting an ecological transition aligned with France’s commitments under the Paris Agreement.

This data-driven modelling effort is intended to:
i. inform and strengthen forward-looking territorial planning processes by clarifying how urban dynamics affect collective behaviours among local stakeholders;
ii. compare possible futures and support optimal choices for environmental transition, enabling the development of efficient services responding to the current and projected needs of local actors.

The ambition is to build:

• Forecasting tools that make the impacts of investment or planning decisions predictable—whether for a school, a transport route, or a new activity in any sector (medical, agricultural, artisanal, industrial, etc.);
• Risk-analysis tools capable of anticipating potential obstacles or difficulties associated with these decisions.

Relying on a proven and robust methodological toolbox that helps make collective decision-making frameworks more certain and predictable at the territorial scale, the Research Initiative ultimately aims to develop or enhance public and private services better suited to meeting the expectations of their beneficiaries.

This Research Initiative is developed in partnership with nam.R, the Collège de France, the Institut Europlace de Finance, and the Data Lab of the Institut Louis Bachelier.

The beneficiaries of its work include:

Public and private decision-makers — including urban planning actors, who will be provided with forward-looking and predictive mathematical and statistical tools enabling them to:

• Conduct territorial diagnostics on cross-cutting issues (housing, health, education, etc.);
• Based on these diagnostics, guide their investment decisions to:
  • Redeploy existing activities and services;
  • Deploy new activities and services.

Citizens, who will have access to dynamic territorial planning models helping them make informed decisions—whether to structure their mobility or choose housing aligned with their main activities and expectations.

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