Sur quels scénarios et prévisions appuyer les décisions d’investissement ? Tel sera le thème de la 8eme édition du Financial Risks International Forum, organisé par l’Institut Louis Bachelier les 30 et 31 mars 2015.
Les candidatures sont ouvertes.


The Financial Risks International Forum on “Scenarios, Stress and Forecasts in Finance” is an International Research Forum for academics and professionals organized by The Louis Bachelier “Finance and Sustainable Growth” Laboratory.

We invite academics, professionals and regulators to submit papers for this meeting which will take place in Paris on March 30 & 31, 2015.

The aim of this conference is to highlight the methodological and regulatory challenges posed by the question of making scenarios, stress tests and forecasts in finance.
Stress testing is becoming a widely used tool, not only for risk management, but also to assess global vulnerabilities in a financial system. Regulatory guidelines on stress testing require financial institutions to build models and make scenarios for macro and micro stress testing. Accurately forecasting and making an optimal use of these forecasts for investment decisions pose renewed challenges to the investment management industry.

A non limitative list of topics of interest is given below:
Economic scenario generation, deterministic versus stochastic scenarios, energetic, climatic, longevity scenarios
Scenarios of interconnections, stress on networks, exogenous shocks versus contagion
Systemic stress testing, bank stress tests, regulation and scenarios, solvency tests
Stress scenarios for large scale risk models, coherent stresses of historical and risk neutral probabilities
Intensive simulations for risk evaluation, sampling importance resampling
Integration of stress test results with probabilistic risk measures
Forecasting cycles, speculative bubbles, switching regimes, multivariate stochastic volatility
Forecasting with mixed frequencies, MIDAS, Nowcasting
Forecasting of extreme events, long horizon forecasts, term structure of predictions
Evaluation of forecast accuracy, risk of forecasting model, model at risk, backtesting
Performance persistence of investors, dynamic portfolio choice under return predictability

A complete paper in PDF format must be submitted electronically by December 1, 2014 using the submission form.
[Click here to submit your paper]

The results of the selection procedure will be set by mid-January 2015.
For any inquiry:

The Institut Louis Bachelier may cover part of travel and accommodation expenses for the authors of selected papers (upon request and only for speakers).