The role of medical innovation in macroeconomic growth.

Summary This thesis aims to highlight the determinants of medical innovation and its effects on economic growth. It is based on the construction of a database of expenditures and consumption of health goods and services between 1980 and 2010, as well as on three theoretical models. The results, for cohorts born between 1923 and 2010, show that medical innovations are essentially determined by demographic variations. Moreover, even if these medical innovations have historically allowed the emergence of important economies of scale, they do not currently play a driving role in macroeconomic growth. Indeed, under the current conditions of stable survival curves, the mechanics of medical innovation do not appear to be a driving force for short-term macroeconomic growth. The multiplier effects of medical innovation on economic growth would therefore be negative or nil in the short term.