A macroeconometric model of energy for public policy.

Summary Since the stagflation observed following the sharp rise in the price of oil in 1973 and 1979, oil shocks have been considered one of the most important sources of fluctuations in the United States as well as in many industrialized countries. Numerous articles have then studied the role of oil shocks in the fluctuation of the main macroeconomic variables, namely growth, unemployment, inflation and wages. However, this work has not yet led to a consensus. The debate has even intensified over the last decade, following the lack of reaction of the real economy during the period of rising oil prices between 2002 and 2007. Indeed, stagflation was only observed at the time of the subprime crisis in 2008. Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain the difference between the crises of the 1970s and 2000. Blanchard & Gali (2009) and Blanchard & Riggi (2013) mention, for example, the reduction in the quantity of oil used in the production process, the greater flexibility of real wages and the greater credibility of monetary policy. Hamiltion (2009) and Kilian (2008) suggest the difference in the origin of the two oil shocks: a supply shock in the 1970s and a demand shock in the 2000s. The objective of this thesis is to re-examine the impact of oil shocks on the real economy. First, based on the work of Blanchard & Gali, we propose three new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, which incorporate oil as both a factor of production and a consumption good. By relaxing several assumptions adopted in Blanchard & Gali, our models allow a better simulation of the real economy and thus a more detailed study of the transmission mechanisms of shocks. Second, we analyze several types of public interventions that could mitigate the impact of oil shocks on the economy.