08h00  08h30 | REGISTRATION |
08h30  08h45 | WELCOME ADDRESS by Pierre SIMON, Chambre de Commerce et d’Industrie de Paris (CCIP) and Jean LAURENT, FINANCE INNOVATION & Institut Europlace de Finance (EIF) |
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08h45  10h00 | PLENARY SESSION I - Natixis Guest speaker: Michael PYKHTIN, Federal Reserve Board "Counterparty Credit Risk Analytics" |
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Panel Session: Managing Correlation Risk |
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| Chairman: Michael CROUHY, Natixis |
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Frédéric ABERGEL, Professor, Ecole Centrale de Paris Slides
Laurent DOMINGOS, Deputy Head CIB - EQD Research Clients, Models Deployment and Usage, BNP Paribas Slides
Gaël RIBOULET, Head of Equity Structuring, Natixis Slides
Tarik SMIRES, Financial Engineer, KPMG Slides
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10h00  10h15 | COFFEE BREAK |
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10h15  11h30 | PARALLEL SESSIONS |
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Parallel Session 1: Correlation |
Chairman: Stéphane CREPEY, University Evry Val d’Essonne |
"Using Local Correlation Models to Improve Option Hedging"
Adil REGHAI, Natixis
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"Riding on Smiles"
Martino GRASSELLI, Università degli Studi di Padova, José DA FONSECA, Auckland University of Technology
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"Dynamic Correlation Hedging in Copula Models for Portfolio Selection"
Denitsa STEFANOVA, VU University Amsterdam, Redouane ELKAMHI, University of Iowa, Henri B. Tippie, College of Business, Iowa
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Parallel Session 2: Contagion |
Chairman: Alexander HERBERTSSON, Göteborg University |
"Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systematic Risk"
Stefano BATTISTON, ETH-Zentrum, Domenico DELLI GATTI, Università del Sacro Cuore, Mauro GALLEGATI, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Bruce GREENWALD, Columbia Business School, Joseph STIGLITZ, Columbia University
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"Contagion in Financial Networks: A Random Graph Model"
Gabrielle DEMANGE, Paris School of Economics, Jacomo CORBO, The Wharton School of Business
Paper
"Modeling of Contagious Credit Events and Risk Analysis of Collateralized Debt Obligations"
Suguru YAMANAKA, University of Tokyo, Masaaki SUGIHARA, University of Tokyo, Hidetoshi NAKA GAWA, Hitotsubashi University
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11h30  12h30 | PARALLEL SESSIONS |
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Parallel Session 3: Collaterized Debt Obligation |
Chairman: Antoine FRACHOT, GENES |
"Pricing CDOs with State Dependent Stochastic Recovery Rates"
Jean-Paul LAURENT, Lyon University, Salah AMRAOUI, Laurent COUSOT and Sébastien HITIER, BNP Paribas
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"Loan Servicers’Incentives and Optimal CDOs"
Henri PAGES, Banque de France
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Discussant: Ersnt EBERLEIN, University of Freiburg
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Parallel Session 4: Validation of Risk Measures |
Chairman: Alain MONFORT, CREST, Banque de France and Maastricht University |
"The Pernicious Effects of Contaminated Data in Risk Management"
Christophe PERIGNON, HEC Paris, Laurent FRESARD, HEC Paris, Anders WILHELMSSON, Lund University, Sweden
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"Ranking the Predictive Performances of Value-at-Risk Methods"
Emrah SENER, Özyegin University, Sayad BARONYAN, Özyegin University, Imperial College London
Paper
Discussant: Jérôme BRUN, Société Générale CIB
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12h30  14h00 | LUNCH hosted by Thibaud de VITRY, Global Head of Investment Solutions, AXA IM |
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14h00  15h15 | PLENARY SESSION II: Crédit Agricole CIB / AmundiGuest speaker: Damiano BRIGO, FitchSolutions & Imperial College"Credit Models Pre - and In-Crisis: The Importance of Properly Accounting for Extreme Scenarios in Valuation" Paper Slides |
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Panel Session: Managing Liquidity Risk |
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| Chairman: Jean-Michel LASRY*, Senior Scientific Adviser, Crédit Agricole CIB |
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Marie BRIERE, Head of Fixed Income, Forex and Volatility Strategy, Amundi Slides
Jean-François DANDÉ, Partner, Treasury & Capital Markets, KPMG Slides
Pascal GIBART, Head of Risk Quants, Crédit Agricole CIB Slides
Charles-Albert LEHALLE, Head of Quantitative Research, Crédit Agricole Cheuvreux Slides
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15h15  16h30 | PARALLEL SESSIONS |
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Parallel Session 5: Dynamic Correlation |
Chairman: Jean-Michel ZAKOIAN, CREST and Lille 3 University |
"Heavy Tails and Currency Crises"
Stefan STRAETMANS, Maastricht University, Philipp HARTMANN, European Central Bank (ECB), Casper G. de VRIES, Erasmus University Rotterdam
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"State-Dependent Dependencies: A Continuous-Time Dynamics for Correlations"
Christoph BECKER and Wolfang SCHMIDT, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
"(Re)correlation: A Markov Switching Multifractal Model with Time Varying Correlations"
Julien IDIER, Banque de France and Paris I University
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Parallel Session 6: Copulas |
Chairman: Raphaël DOUADY, Riskdata |
"New Prospects on Vines"
Pierre-André MAUGIS and Dominique GUEGAN, Paris I University
Paper | Slides
"Testing Parametric Copula Models"
Nour MEDDAHI, Toulouse School of Economics, Bruno FEUNOU, Duke University, Christian BONTEMPS, Toulouse School of Economics
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"Modelling Extreme Dependence for Multivariate Data"
Damien BOSC, AXA IM, Alfred GALICHON, Ecole Polytechnique
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16h30  17h00 | |
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17h00  18h00 | PARALLEL SESSIONS |
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Parallel Session 7: Management under VaR Control |
Chairman: Christophe PERIGNON, HEC Paris |
"Inflation-Hedging Portfolios in Different Regimes"
Marie BRIERE, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Amundi, Ombretta SIGNORI, Amundi
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"Optimal Investment and Capital Management Decisions for a Non-Life Insurance Company"
Selim MANKAÏ, University Paris X, Catherine BRUNEAU, Université Paris X, ESSEC
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Discussant: Christian-Yann ROBERT, CREST Slides
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Parallel Session 8: Counterparty Risk |
Chairman: Gilles PAGES, Paris VI University |
"Counterparty Risk on a CDS with Joint Defaults and Stochastic Spreads"
Behnaz ZARGARI, University Evry Val d’Essonne, Sharif University of Technology, Stéphane CREPEY and Monique JEANBLANC, University Evry Val d’Essonne, CRIS Consortium
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"CVA Computation for Counterparty Risk Assessment in Credit Portfolios"
Samson ASSEFA, University Evry Val d’Essonne, CRIS Consortium, Tomasz R. BIELECKI, Illinois Institute of Technology, Stéphane CREPEY and Monique JEANBLANC, University Evry Val d’Essonne, CRIS Consortium
Paper | Slides
Discussant: Areski COUSIN, University Evry Val d’Essonne
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08h00  08h30 | REGISTRATION |
08h30  09h30 | PARALLEL SESSIONS |
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Parallel Session 9: Regulation |
Chairman: Ulrich HEGE, HEC Paris |
"Proposed Indicators for Macro-Prudential Supervision of The Banking System in the Cemac Zone"
Jules TINANG NZESSEU, Bank of Central African States (BEAC), Séverin-Yves KAMGNA and Christian TSOMBOU KINFAK, Sub-Regional Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics
Paper | Slides
"Improved Modeling of Double Default Effects in Basel II – An Endogenous Asset Drop Model Without Additional Correlation"
Sebastian EBERT and Eva LÜTKEBOHMERT, Bonn Graduate School of Economics
Paper | Slides
Discussant: Laurent CLERC, Banque de France Slides
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Parallel Session 10: Granularity |
Chairman: Mathieu ROSENBAUM, Ecole Polytechnique |
"Regularizing Portfolio Optimization"
Imre KONDOR, Collegium Budapest, Susanne STILL, University of Hawaï
Paper | Slides
"Sector Concentration Risk in SME Credit Portfolios: A Multifactor Approach"
Joël PETEY and Michel DIETSCH, LARGE Strasbourg University
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Discussant: Frédéric ABERGEL, Ecole Centrale Paris
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09h30  10h20 | SPECIAL SESSION INVITED TALK 1, Organized by AXA Chair "Large Risk in Insurance"
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Chairman: Christian GOURIEROUX, CREST and University of Toronto
Guest speaker: Alexander J. McNEIL, Heriot Watt University
"Multivariate Stress Testing for Solvency II" Slides
Discussant: Arthur CHARPENTIER, Rennes 1 University Slides
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| Parallel session 11: Macrofinance |
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Chairman: Fulvio PEGORARO, Banque de France and CREST
"Learning from Stock Prices and Economic Growth"
Joel PERESS, INSEAD
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"The Credit Spread Cycle with Matching Frictions"
Fabien TRIPIER, Nantes University, Kevin E. BEAUBRUN-DIANT, University Paris-Dauphine
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Discussant: Bertrand VILLENEUVE, CREST – University Paris-Dauphine
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10h20  10h35 | COFFEE BREAK |
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10h35  11h35 | PARALLEL SESSIONS |
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Parallel Session 12: Capital Requirement |
Chairman: Patrice PONCET, ESSEC Business School |
"Basel II and The Value of Bank Differentiation"
Ulrich HEGE, HEC Paris, Eberhard FEESS, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Paper | Slides
"Capital Requirements and Taxpayer Put Option Values For The Major US Banks"
Ernst EBERLEIN, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Dilip B. MADAN, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland
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Discussant: Henry PAGES, Banque de France Slides
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Parallel Session 13: Portfolio Management under Contagion |
Chairman: Jean-Paul LAURENT, Lyon University |
"Optimal Portfolio Choice with Contagion Risk and Restricted Information"
Christoph MEINERDING and Nicole BRANGER, Westfälische Wilhelms-University Münster, Holger KRAFT, Goethe University
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Discussant: Christian GOURIEROUX, CREST and University of Toronto
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11h35  12h30 | SPECIAL SESSION INVITED TALK 2, Organized by AXA Chair "Large Risk in Insurance"
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Chairman: Michael ROCKINGER, CREST, Swiss Finance Institute and University of Lausanne
Guest speaker: Jin-Chuan DUAN, National University of Singapore
"Clustered Defaults" Slides
Discussant: Jean-Paul LAURENT, Lyon University Slides
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| Parallel h: Risk Measure and Basket Default Swap |
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Chairman: Monique JEANBLANC, University Evry Val d’Essonne
"Towards a Well-Diversified Risk Measure: A DARE Approach"
Patrick KOUONTCHOU, Variances and Paris I University, Bertrand MAILLET and Benjamin HAMIDI, ABN AMRO and Paris I University
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"Pricing Basket Default Swaps in a Tractable Shot-Noise Model"
Alexander HERBERTSSON, Göteborg University, Jiwook JANG, Macquarie University, Thorsten SCHMIDT, Leipzig University
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Discussant: Benoit ROGER, Société Générale Slides
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12h30  13h00 | |
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13h00  14h30 | CLOSING COCKTAIL |
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| Chairman: Bertrand VILLENEUVE, CREST - University Paris-Dauphine |
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Pricing and Hedging Basis Risk Under No Good Deal Assumption
Emmanuel TEMAM and Laurence CARASSUS, Paris VII University |
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Wild Bootstrap Inference on Long-Run Linkages between The CDS and Credit Spreads
Silika PROHL and Rajna GIBSON, Swiss Banking Institute, University of Geneva |
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Global Housing Market Contagion
Olfa KAABIA and Catherine BRUNEAU, Paris X University, Robert VERMULEN, University of Luxembourg and Maastricht University |
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Is There a Correlation Between Sovereign Rating Dynamic and Financial Markets? An Event Study Analysis at the Level of The CEE Countries
Petre BREZEANU and Cristina MARIA, National Bank of Roumania |
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Correlation under Stress in Normal Variance Mixture Models
Natalie PACKMAN, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Michael KALKBRENER, Deutsche Bank AG |
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The Black-Litterman Model: Wrong Views versus Opportunity Cost
Ghislain YANOU, Paris I University |
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A Centile Regression Approach for Crisis Analysis
Benjamin HAMIDI, Eric JONDEAU, HEC Lausanne, Bertrand MAILLET, Paris I University |
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Asymmetric CAPM Dependence for Large Dimensions: The Canonical Vine Autoregressive Model
Andreas HEINEN, Carlos III University, Alfonso VALDESOGO, University of Luxembourg |
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Expected Returns Across Time Scales
Christophe BOUCHER and Bertrand MAILLET, ABN AMRO and Paris I University |
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A Representation of The Credit Dependency Using Marginal Probability of Defaults
Cyril PAPADACCI and Olivier TOUTAIN, Moody’s |
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Risk Asymptotics of Large Portfolios
Mesrop JANUNTS, Cass Business School, University of Neuchatel, Eric JONDEAU, HEC Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute |
| Chairman: Frédéric ABERGEL, Ecole Centrale Paris |
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Multi-Factor Econometric Nelson-Siegel Model for Interest Rates
Julien TURC, Sandrine UNGARI, Société Générale, Changyin HUANG, Ecole Polytechnique
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Information Flow between Stock Return and Trading Volume: The Tunisian Stock Market,
Kais TISSAOUI and Chaker ALOUI, International Finance Group and University of Tunis
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Bank Runs and Costly Information Signals
Maria SEMENOVA, Higher School of Economics, Moscow
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Computing VaR and CVaR using Stochastic Approximation and Adaptive Unconstrained Importance Sampling
Noufel FRIKHA, Gilles PAGES and Olivier BARDOU, University Pierre and Marie Curie, GDF SUEZ
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A Spot Stochastic Recovery Extension of the Gaussian Copula
Jérôme MAETZ, Norddine BENNANI, Barclays Capital
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The Extreme Value-at-Risk and the Time Horizon
Denis DUPRE, Gilles SANFILIPPO and Lanciné KOUROUMA, University Pierre Mendes-France
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Copula Structural Shift Identification
Henry PENIKAS and Boris BRODSKY, State University, Moscow
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Correlations
Christian HEYERDAHL-LARSEN, SIFR - Institute for Financial Research, Paul EHLING, BI Norwegian School of Management,
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Foreign Banks, Corporate Strategy and Financial Stability: Lessons from The River Plate
Michael BREI, University Evry Val d’Essonne, Carlos WINOGRAD, Paris School of Economics and University Evry Val d’Essonne
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Are Banking Systems Increasingly Fragile? Investigating Financial Institution’ CDS Returns Extreme Co-Movements
Dima RAHMAN, ECONOMIX – CNRS
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Modeling Dependence Using Skew t-Copulas: Bayesian Inference and Application
Quan GAN, University of Sydney, Michael SMITH, University of Melbourne, Robert KOHN, University of New South-Wales
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On Break-Even Correlation: The Way to Price Structured Credit Derivatives by Replication
Jean-David FERMANIAN, BNP-Paribas & CREST, Olivier VIGNERON, JP-Morgan
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