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08h0008h30
REGISTRATION
08h3008h45
WELCOME ADDRESS by Pierre SIMON, Chambre de Commerce et d’Industrie de Paris (CCIP) and Jean LAURENT, FINANCE INNOVATION & Institut Europlace de Finance (EIF)
08h4510h00
PLENARY SESSION I - Natixis
Guest speaker: Michael PYKHTIN, Federal Reserve Board
"Counterparty Credit Risk Analytics"
Panel Session: Managing Correlation Risk
Chairman: Michael CROUHY, Natixis
Frédéric ABERGEL, Professor, Ecole Centrale de Paris   Slides
Laurent DOMINGOS, Deputy Head CIB - EQD Research Clients, Models Deployment and Usage, BNP Paribas   Slides
Gaël RIBOULET, Head of Equity Structuring, Natixis   Slides
Tarik SMIRES, Financial Engineer, KPMG   Slides
10h0010h15
COFFEE BREAK
10h1511h30
PARALLEL SESSIONS
Parallel Session 1: Correlation
Chairman: Stéphane CREPEY, University Evry Val d’Essonne
"Using Local Correlation Models to Improve Option Hedging"
Adil REGHAI, Natixis
Paper  |  Slides

"Riding on Smiles"
Martino GRASSELLI, Università degli Studi di Padova, José DA FONSECA, Auckland University of Technology
Paper  |  Slides

"Dynamic Correlation Hedging in Copula Models for Portfolio Selection"
Denitsa STEFANOVA, VU University Amsterdam, Redouane ELKAMHI, University of Iowa, Henri B. Tippie, College of Business, Iowa
Paper  |  Slides


Parallel Session 2: Contagion
Chairman: Alexander HERBERTSSON, Göteborg University
"Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systematic Risk"
Stefano BATTISTON, ETH-Zentrum, Domenico DELLI GATTI, Università del Sacro Cuore, Mauro GALLEGATI, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Bruce GREENWALD, Columbia Business School, Joseph STIGLITZ, Columbia University
Paper

"Contagion in Financial Networks: A Random Graph Model"
Gabrielle DEMANGE, Paris School of Economics, Jacomo CORBO, The Wharton School of Business
Paper

"Modeling of Contagious Credit Events and Risk Analysis of Collateralized Debt Obligations"
Suguru YAMANAKA, University of Tokyo, Masaaki SUGIHARA, University of Tokyo, Hidetoshi NAKA GAWA, Hitotsubashi University
Paper  |  Slides


11h3012h30
PARALLEL SESSIONS
Parallel Session 3: Collaterized Debt Obligation
Chairman: Antoine FRACHOT, GENES
"Pricing CDOs with State Dependent Stochastic Recovery Rates"
Jean-Paul LAURENT, Lyon University, Salah AMRAOUI, Laurent COUSOT and Sébastien HITIER, BNP Paribas
Paper  |  Slides

"Loan Servicers’Incentives and Optimal CDOs"
Henri PAGES, Banque de France
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Ersnt EBERLEIN, University of Freiburg
Parallel Session 4: Validation of Risk Measures
Chairman: Alain MONFORT, CREST, Banque de France and Maastricht University
"The Pernicious Effects of Contaminated Data in Risk Management"
Christophe PERIGNON, HEC Paris, Laurent FRESARD, HEC Paris, Anders WILHELMSSON, Lund University, Sweden
Paper  |  Slides

"Ranking the Predictive Performances of Value-at-Risk Methods"
Emrah SENER, Özyegin University, Sayad BARONYAN, Özyegin University, Imperial College London
Paper

Discussant: Jérôme BRUN, Société Générale CIB
12h3014h00
 LUNCH hosted by Thibaud de VITRY, Global Head of Investment Solutions, AXA IM
14h0015h15
PLENARY SESSION II: Crédit Agricole CIB / Amundi
Guest speaker: Damiano BRIGO, FitchSolutions & Imperial College
"Credit Models Pre - and In-Crisis: The Importance of Properly Accounting for Extreme Scenarios in Valuation"
Paper  Slides
Panel Session: Managing Liquidity Risk
Chairman: Jean-Michel LASRY*, Senior Scientific Adviser, Crédit Agricole CIB
Marie BRIERE, Head of Fixed Income, Forex and Volatility Strategy, Amundi Slides
Jean-François DANDÉ, Partner, Treasury & Capital Markets, KPMG Slides
Pascal GIBART, Head of Risk Quants, Crédit Agricole CIB Slides
Charles-Albert LEHALLE, Head of Quantitative Research, Crédit Agricole Cheuvreux Slides
15h1516h30
PARALLEL SESSIONS
Parallel Session 5: Dynamic Correlation
Chairman: Jean-Michel ZAKOIAN, CREST and Lille 3 University
"Heavy Tails and Currency Crises"
Stefan STRAETMANS, Maastricht University, Philipp HARTMANN, European Central Bank (ECB), Casper G. de VRIES, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Paper  |  Slides

"State-Dependent Dependencies: A Continuous-Time Dynamics for Correlations"
Christoph BECKER and Wolfang SCHMIDT, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management


"(Re)correlation: A Markov Switching Multifractal Model with Time Varying Correlations"
Julien IDIER, Banque de France and Paris I University
Paper  |  Slides

Parallel Session 6: Copulas
Chairman: Raphaël DOUADY, Riskdata
"New Prospects on Vines"
Pierre-André MAUGIS and Dominique GUEGAN, Paris I University
Paper  |  Slides

"Testing Parametric Copula Models"
Nour MEDDAHI, Toulouse School of Economics, Bruno FEUNOU, Duke University, Christian BONTEMPS, Toulouse School of Economics
Paper

"Modelling Extreme Dependence for Multivariate Data"
Damien BOSC, AXA IM, Alfred GALICHON, Ecole Polytechnique
Paper  |  Slides

16h3017h00
POSTER SESSION** 1 (see below)
17h0018h00
PARALLEL SESSIONS
Parallel Session 7: Management under VaR Control
Chairman: Christophe PERIGNON, HEC Paris
"Inflation-Hedging Portfolios in Different Regimes"
Marie BRIERE, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Amundi, Ombretta SIGNORI, Amundi
Paper  |  Slides

"Optimal Investment and Capital Management Decisions for a Non-Life Insurance Company"
Selim MANKAÏ, University Paris X, Catherine BRUNEAU, Université Paris X, ESSEC
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Christian-Yann ROBERT, CREST Slides
Parallel Session 8: Counterparty Risk
Chairman: Gilles PAGES, Paris VI University
"Counterparty Risk on a CDS with Joint Defaults and Stochastic Spreads"
Behnaz ZARGARI, University Evry Val d’Essonne, Sharif University of Technology, Stéphane CREPEY and Monique JEANBLANC, University Evry Val d’Essonne, CRIS Consortium
Paper

"CVA Computation for Counterparty Risk Assessment in Credit Portfolios"
Samson ASSEFA, University Evry Val d’Essonne, CRIS Consortium, Tomasz R. BIELECKI, Illinois Institute of Technology, Stéphane CREPEY and Monique JEANBLANC, University Evry Val d’Essonne, CRIS Consortium
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Areski COUSIN, University Evry Val d’Essonne

08h0008h30
REGISTRATION
08h3009h30
PARALLEL SESSIONS
Parallel Session 9: Regulation
Chairman: Ulrich HEGE, HEC Paris
"Proposed Indicators for Macro-Prudential Supervision of The Banking System in the Cemac Zone"
Jules TINANG NZESSEU, Bank of Central African States (BEAC), Séverin-Yves KAMGNA and Christian TSOMBOU KINFAK, Sub-Regional Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics
Paper  |  Slides

"Improved Modeling of Double Default Effects in Basel II – An Endogenous Asset Drop Model Without Additional Correlation"
Sebastian EBERT and Eva LÜTKEBOHMERT, Bonn Graduate School of Economics
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Laurent CLERC, Banque de France  Slides
Parallel Session 10: Granularity
Chairman: Mathieu ROSENBAUM, Ecole Polytechnique
"Regularizing Portfolio Optimization"
Imre KONDOR, Collegium Budapest, Susanne STILL, University of Hawaï
Paper  |  Slides

"Sector Concentration Risk in SME Credit Portfolios: A Multifactor Approach"
Joël PETEY and Michel DIETSCH, LARGE Strasbourg University
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Frédéric ABERGEL, Ecole Centrale Paris
09h3010h20
SPECIAL SESSION
INVITED TALK 1, Organized by AXA Chair "Large Risk in Insurance"
Chairman: Christian GOURIEROUX, CREST and University of Toronto
Guest speaker: Alexander J. McNEIL, Heriot Watt University
"Multivariate Stress Testing for Solvency II"  Slides

Discussant: Arthur CHARPENTIER, Rennes 1 University  Slides
Parallel session 11: Macrofinance
Chairman: Fulvio PEGORARO, Banque de France and CREST

"Learning from Stock Prices and Economic Growth"
Joel PERESS, INSEAD
Paper  |  Slides

"The Credit Spread Cycle with Matching Frictions"
Fabien TRIPIER, Nantes University, Kevin E. BEAUBRUN-DIANT, University Paris-Dauphine
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Bertrand VILLENEUVE, CREST – University Paris-Dauphine
10h2010h35
COFFEE BREAK
10h3511h35
PARALLEL SESSIONS
Parallel Session 12: Capital Requirement
Chairman: Patrice PONCET, ESSEC Business School
"Basel II and The Value of Bank Differentiation"
Ulrich HEGE, HEC Paris, Eberhard FEESS, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Paper  |  Slides

"Capital Requirements and Taxpayer Put Option Values For The Major US Banks"
Ernst EBERLEIN, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Dilip B. MADAN, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Henry PAGES, Banque de France Slides
Parallel Session 13: Portfolio Management under Contagion
Chairman: Jean-Paul LAURENT, Lyon University
"Optimal Portfolio Choice with Contagion Risk and Restricted Information"
Christoph MEINERDING and Nicole BRANGER, Westfälische Wilhelms-University Münster, Holger KRAFT, Goethe University
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Christian GOURIEROUX, CREST and University of Toronto
11h3512h30
SPECIAL SESSION
INVITED TALK 2, Organized by AXA Chair "Large Risk in Insurance"
Chairman: Michael ROCKINGER, CREST, Swiss Finance Institute and University of Lausanne
Guest speaker: Jin-Chuan DUAN, National University of Singapore
"Clustered Defaults" Slides

Discussant: Jean-Paul LAURENT, Lyon University Slides
Parallel h: Risk Measure and Basket Default Swap
Chairman: Monique JEANBLANC, University Evry Val d’Essonne

"Towards a Well-Diversified Risk Measure: A DARE Approach"
Patrick KOUONTCHOU, Variances and Paris I University, Bertrand MAILLET and Benjamin HAMIDI, ABN AMRO and Paris I University
Paper  |  Slides

"Pricing Basket Default Swaps in a Tractable Shot-Noise Model"
Alexander HERBERTSSON, Göteborg University, Jiwook JANG, Macquarie University, Thorsten SCHMIDT, Leipzig University
Paper  |  Slides

Discussant: Benoit ROGER, Société Générale  Slides
12h3013h00
POSTER SESSION** 2 (see below)
13h0014h30
CLOSING COCKTAIL

Chairman: Bertrand VILLENEUVE, CREST - University Paris-Dauphine
Pricing and Hedging Basis Risk Under No Good Deal Assumption
Emmanuel TEMAM and Laurence CARASSUS, Paris VII University
Wild Bootstrap Inference on Long-Run Linkages between The CDS and Credit Spreads
Silika PROHL and Rajna GIBSON, Swiss Banking Institute, University of Geneva
Global Housing Market Contagion
Olfa KAABIA and Catherine BRUNEAU, Paris X University, Robert VERMULEN, University of Luxembourg and Maastricht University
Is There a Correlation Between Sovereign Rating Dynamic and Financial Markets? An Event Study Analysis at the Level of The CEE Countries
Petre BREZEANU and Cristina MARIA, National Bank of Roumania
Correlation under Stress in Normal Variance Mixture Models
Natalie PACKMAN, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Michael KALKBRENER, Deutsche Bank AG
The Black-Litterman Model: Wrong Views versus Opportunity Cost
Ghislain YANOU, Paris I University
A Centile Regression Approach for Crisis Analysis
Benjamin HAMIDI, Eric JONDEAU, HEC Lausanne, Bertrand MAILLET, Paris I University
Asymmetric CAPM Dependence for Large Dimensions: The Canonical Vine Autoregressive Model
Andreas HEINEN, Carlos III University, Alfonso VALDESOGO, University of Luxembourg
Expected Returns Across Time Scales
Christophe BOUCHER and Bertrand MAILLET, ABN AMRO and Paris I University
A Representation of The Credit Dependency Using Marginal Probability of Defaults
Cyril PAPADACCI and Olivier TOUTAIN, Moody’s
Risk Asymptotics of Large Portfolios
Mesrop JANUNTS, Cass Business School, University of Neuchatel, Eric JONDEAU, HEC Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute

Chairman: Frédéric ABERGEL, Ecole Centrale Paris
Multi-Factor Econometric Nelson-Siegel Model for Interest Rates
Julien TURC, Sandrine UNGARI, Société Générale, Changyin HUANG, Ecole Polytechnique
Information Flow between Stock Return and Trading Volume: The Tunisian Stock Market,
Kais TISSAOUI and Chaker ALOUI, International Finance Group and University of Tunis
Bank Runs and Costly Information Signals
Maria SEMENOVA, Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Computing VaR and CVaR using Stochastic Approximation and Adaptive Unconstrained Importance Sampling
Noufel FRIKHA, Gilles PAGES and Olivier BARDOU, University Pierre and Marie Curie, GDF SUEZ
A Spot Stochastic Recovery Extension of the Gaussian Copula
Jérôme MAETZ, Norddine BENNANI, Barclays Capital
The Extreme Value-at-Risk and the Time Horizon
Denis DUPRE, Gilles SANFILIPPO and Lanciné KOUROUMA, University Pierre Mendes-France
Copula Structural Shift Identification
Henry PENIKAS and Boris BRODSKY, State University, Moscow
Correlations
Christian HEYERDAHL-LARSEN, SIFR - Institute for Financial Research, Paul EHLING, BI Norwegian School of Management,
Foreign Banks, Corporate Strategy and Financial Stability: Lessons from The River Plate
Michael BREI, University Evry Val d’Essonne, Carlos WINOGRAD, Paris School of Economics and University Evry Val d’Essonne
Are Banking Systems Increasingly Fragile? Investigating Financial Institution’ CDS Returns Extreme Co-Movements
Dima RAHMAN, ECONOMIX – CNRS
Modeling Dependence Using Skew t-Copulas: Bayesian Inference and Application
Quan GAN, University of Sydney, Michael SMITH, University of Melbourne, Robert KOHN, University of New South-Wales
On Break-Even Correlation: The Way to Price Structured Credit Derivatives by Replication
Jean-David FERMANIAN, BNP-Paribas & CREST, Olivier VIGNERON, JP-Morgan
(**) Poster sessions are effective means of conveying information. Poster’s visual aspects and the presenter’s verbal explanations work together to get the material across quickly